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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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About the Supercharger revenue/licensing potential, I have written about why this won't happen imo: Google for
"Why Tesla Will Never Become The ExxonMobil Of The EV Age"
if you are interested ( since linking to SA is frowned upon in this forum. But rest assured, this is a blog entry, not a SA article. I'm not making a singly penny from your click
)As for Twitter, iTunes and other software/services please tell me more...especially how you come up with these giant numbers of 40 billion and 100 billion in market value added(?).
PS: Blankenship leaving, he's still listed here: Executive Bios | Tesla Motors (?). Update: yes it's now confirmed: Exclusive: Top Tesla executive George Blankenship, VP of Sales, departs | SiliconBeat
I don't think this changes much. Design/CI and customer service of the stores is set, this can be replicated in additional stores around the world (or they are looking for a different direction ?).
But I have to question (again) the PR / communication policy of TSLA: Why do we find out about B. leaving from third-party sources? That should have been TSLA communicating it first !
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FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Not all that bad. VPs come and go. For that matter, tesla lost a CEO a few years ago. I think he probably made great contributions to store layout but I also got the sense that there was a falling out earlier this year. Seems to me that George had his own ideas of how to steer the company and probably rubbed Elon the wrong way.
on the good side: 99/100 customer satisfaction
Tesla's Model S tops Consumer Reports owner survey - Nov. 21, 2013
Tesla's Model S tops Consumer Reports owner survey - Nov. 21, 2013
Ah the pesky truth.
Regards Blakenship, he was incredibly expensive for Tesla and there is only so many times to reinvent the store format, not such a bad margin increase exercise at all.
palmer_md
Member
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
About the Supercharger revenue/licensing potential, I have written about why this won't happen imo: Google for
"Why Tesla Will Never Become The ExxonMobil Of The EV Age"
if you are interested ( since linking to SA is frowned upon in this forum. But rest assured, this is a blog entry, not a SA article. I'm not making a singly penny from your click
As for Twitter, iTunes and other software/services please tell me more...especially how you come up with these giant numbers of 40 billion and 100 billion in market value added(?).
PS: As for Blankenship leaving, he's still listed here: Executive Bios | Tesla Motors . Update: yes it's now confirmed: Exclusive: Top Tesla executive George Blankenship, VP of Sales, departs | SiliconBeat
I don't think this changes much. Design/CI and customer service of the stores is set, this can be replicated in additional stores around the world (or they are looking for a different direction ?).
I actually don't click on anything. Please re-paste it here.
And my idea about supercharger has nothing to do with licensing or making money anything, but simply because of the effect of monopoly in super charging fast and as the gatekeeper. Tesla basically gets to decide who's car will be able to go long range or not. Range is the primary concern for EV ever since inception, instead of the fire that is making the rounds. We are in year 2 and the big 3 has yet to build 1 charging station that can charge fast, or anybody else for that matter.
Twitter worth: 22b.
Facebook worth: 114b.
These are the market cap attached to social network ads companies. Tesla network ads will be worth much more as the audience is a more affluent section of the community. So I just doubled twitter as that is a easy valuation for twitter to reach in the next 5 years
100B is a number pulled out of my ass from a quick estimation. Itunes 3.9B revenue at 5% cap rate should give you 80B valuation.
Of course, since we are talking about future valuation like you are talking about future delays in building the factory that doesn't have to start until 2015. We should all pull number out from our ass.
Thanks for the reference. The channel clearly depicts (dare I say predicts...) the recent behavior and I think we are all hoping Curt's Golden Rule or some other event causes us to break the trend. Looks like we will know by Monday the latest, as we will be hitting the top of the channel and will either breakout or be forced lower, back into the channel and below the point of the "golden rule". As I said before, I think the point of inflection will be around the 200d ma, if its not here.
Also, notice how we are getting sqeezed over the last three days....lower highs and higher lows.
Lower highs and higher lows, seems to me that we might be going through another point of consolidation with the continuation pattern of a new bear pennant forming so soon. Normally, the bear pennant would just continue through without a consolidation in between. Based off the chart's technicals, TSLA will hit that upper resistance by Monday and we may see another slide this time to the 200-day MA. If TSLA trades purely on technicals and needs to fill the length of the flag pole created by the slide since ER, we could see these patterns of selloff-consolidation-selloff-consolidation until the 80s. I really want to say that 100 will be unbreakable but that's been said about the 160s, 140s, and 130s and we're currently in the 120s so who knows at this point. I really think we have a NFLX situation going on with TSLA.
Ok. But I don't think TSLA car owners will be thrilled to listen to in-car audio ads or have pop-ups on the touchscreen with ads when they start the car?
Or did I misunderstand you? What would be the business model? TWTR and FB have much larger audiences worldwide than any car company.
I'm not talking about a battery plant delay: I wrote there is no mass-market Gen III car production (at least not in the numbers modeled by bullish analysts) without a finished Gen III car plant by 2017 - or a giant build-up in additional third-party suppliers (Samsung, LG), but that would hardly be enough to cover the Gen III above 100k+ units. The delay risk would be in the Gen III car beyond the small initial launch batch (signature series or similar), not the plant.
I posted this in the giga factory thread also, here's a link with numbers discussing the 10-Q:
Analysis Of Tesla's September Quarter 10-Q - Forbes
(Battery section)
TSLA will likely require over 2 billion of additional cells/year for the Gen III car by 2017+. More details in the giga battery factory thread. The 40 GhW come from TSLA CTO Straubel (40 GhW, assuming 700k cars by 2019 and about 5k 18650 cells/car), these are not my numbers. I calculated with less cells/car (higher Ah assumed) and smaller volumes for 100k and up to 250-500k Gen III cars/year. We will see.
One prediction I'm fairly certain about: Analysts covering TSLA will one day "discover" and start talking about this battery plant and its importance in the future while they largely ignored it in 2013 and earlier. The Q3 2013 TSLA conference call was a first wake-up call for them. Adios.
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FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
The discussion in gigafactory thread is enough to rebut the need to build a new factory. The 3rd party will ramp up and it is a phased in build out like a Model S. There will not be a delay. If there is, it'll be because TSLA promised a bigger number than current projection and they have to build up faster. Let's leave that debate there.
The ads on Model S need not be intrusive since people in a car who searches on GPS are already thinking about spending money. Restaurants, sight seeing, clubs etc. Like google it's a platfrom that people get on specifically because they want to spend money. So unlike twitter and facebook where people go on to do other things, tsla will not have to shove ads down your throat. There's a huge difference in the psychology between people willingly see your recommendation vs you having to shove it down their throat.
George was 60. Even though he was awesome, at that age you seriously shouldn't be expected to
1. Globe trot around the world
2. Work 60+ hours a week (what is necessary with Tesla in its growth phase)
3. Not spend time with your grand kids (he seems like a decent human being)
I think it's fair that he retired. He already laid the foundation and what you have to realize is he set the retail strategy, but Ron Johnson actually made the stores.
1. Globe trot around the world
2. Work 60+ hours a week (what is necessary with Tesla in its growth phase)
3. Not spend time with your grand kids (he seems like a decent human being)
I think it's fair that he retired. He already laid the foundation and what you have to realize is he set the retail strategy, but Ron Johnson actually made the stores.
He was easily my favorite guy to hear from, always energetic and enthusiastic. He was great at the Portland store opening. I'm not sure if we'll know why, but in my mind he was an integral part of Tesla's chance to thrive. Having him gone shakes my faith a little.
edit: Apparently he's retiring. Understandable, but still a big loss for Tesla.
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I'd argue Peter Rawlinson leaving was a bigger deal. But no worries I'm pretty sure people like that never really "leave" the business.
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