7/16 was the day of the GS dip. Nice time to buy.
Even the LEAPs I bought then (Jan15 145, 155 strikes) have doubled since.
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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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7/16 was the day of the GS dip. Nice time to buy.
Even the LEAPs I bought then (Jan15 145, 155 strikes) have doubled since.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
The genious of Elon and CFO Deepak Ahuja dawns on me again. Strong market forces/big players/smart money will be working to keep the stock price in the $160's during the final months of the year. This will be a strong counterweight to any massive sell-off tendencies that could follow a peak in stock price after a potential Q2 earnings surprise. The secondary offering wasn't only a brilliant move in that it essentially captured the squeeze to $92.50 and made it a new floor for the stock price, but now I understand that the terms and conditions of the convertible notes will also work to stabilize at a much higher level. Amazing.
sub, fwiw, I caught up on the thread tonight, and I think your qa and analysis here has gotten you to a very good outlook. Long foremost, when you have more cash you can buy dips, but for now ignore dips (well with one exception perhaps, if there's just a total silly dip like into 70s without some fundamental Tesla reason, I think a shallow dip into margin is okay).
congrats on your focus on the long term
sub
Active Member
sub, fwiw, I caught up on the thread tonight, and I think your qa and analysis here has gotten you to a very good outlook. Long foremost, when you have more cash you can buy dips, but for now ignore dips (well with one exception perhaps, if there's just a total silly dip like into 70s without some fundamental Tesla reason, I think a shallow dip into margin is okay).
congrats on your focus on the long term
I'm trying to learn from all the experienced people here, can't get enough of it. It's true that everyone's financial situation and willingness to take risks are big factors in how they invest. Im going to do my best to stick to the plan, it would probably help if I stayed out of the "short term" thread
The general market short positions I have opened recently (QQQ puts and short SPY) provide a hedge against TSLA tanking due to the general market. Apart from that, I have not hedged my position. I have bought these shares to hold long term and I have not leveraged my position, so I can in theory sit out any slump in the share price. For that reason I am very disinclined to make changes. On the other hand, I am strongly considering taking 1/3 - 1/2 of the money off the table now, with the plan to put it back in if the stock goes low later (I don't know how low I would be asking for).
I am fairly certain that Q2 figures will be solid, and that the Elon show will put on another stellar performance tomorrow. That is why I am hesitating to do something right now. On the other hand, it seems that the market is pretty bullish on the earnings (despite the timid consensus), and we could very well see a "sell the news" effect even when the numbers are good.
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There are multiple reasons. First of all, I think the US recovery is anemic at best and is likely to soon peter out without having gone anywhere. And even what little recovery there is, it is based on a number of unsustainable factors: Increasing government debt (meaning that taxes have to go up or gov't demand down), unprecedented liquidity spewing by the Fed, another round of housing price inflation, etc.
Second, we will keep having 2008-like boom/bust cycles until the underlying problem is fixed: Call it "Too Big To Fail" or "The Fed Put" or whatever - the result will always be that excessive risk taking by undercapitalized banks will lead to new crises that have big negative impact on the real economy. [Did you know that after all that happened in 2008, the megabanks still have debt ratios in the 95-99% range?]
Third, the US is not an island, and has for the past few decades been heavily influenced by the general world economy. Which looks pretty risky at the moment. EU has been able to limp through the first round of the debt crisis, but not really fixed the problem. The banking union that was to be the final fix was undermined as soon as the immediate crisis blew over. Growth was killed by austerity (and was not very good before that), and it is hard to see from whence it will return. Japan has chosen a kamikaze way out: Despite being the most heavily indebted government in history they are throwing borrowed money into the economy like there is no tomorrow, hoping to restart their growth after two lost decades. China is the wild card, but the range of outcomes seem to be from "OK" to "complete disaster". Growth is slowing, costs are rising, exports falling and pretty sure defaults will soon explode. Chinese debt is a particular concern.
I could go on, but the main point is that this is no environment for the markets to set all time highs. They are all artificially inflated by QE, which will have to end soon. Note also that the rise in the past months has been on low volumes, which supports the hypothesis that the smart money has left a long time ago, and that retail investors are driving the indices up lemming style.
If you want a strong exposition of the bear case, I would recommend reading the blog Zerohedge. As an economist I don't agree with more than half of what is posted, but many posts are insightful and the blog an astonishing source of non-mainstream economic data and analyses. I just have to disregard the right-wing, apocalyptic "return to gold standard" aspect of the blog.
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marvinat0rz
Member
Okay, thanks. The only hedging option for me at the moment would be to sell shares. 21% of everything I sell would disappear in taxes at this point, so that's more or less the drop which is required for a hedge to be unequivocally profitable. I feel that the stock is very expensive into the earnings report, there's no question that the market is expecting better than the analyst consensus. But I might end up just sitting on it; I did plan to be a strict buy-and-hold investor for 10 years but wasn't expecting a 400% return in 9 months.
Might short an ETF, but it would be on margin which I really, really dislike.
Might short an ETF, but it would be on margin which I really, really dislike.
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
I like your numbers, but what about assuming $150 on Wednesday?
If that were to happen I'd probably shift some probability from (b) to (c). I think d is already high enough and I agree with you on (e).
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
You guys are like a secret brotherhood that I join every time I open my closet and enters the magic kingdom.
I feel frustrated that I can't talk to my real life friends and family about this for fear of jealousy.
I feel frustrated that I can't talk to my real life friends and family about this for fear of jealousy.
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
I've been telling almost everyone I know since the $30s that TSLA could "probably double by the end of year, put a little money in!." So they can't be jealous as I told them! Well, about the buying part. I was very much off about the doubling by the end of the year part.
@Johan: I found this quote from you in an earlier thread:
Would be interesting to hear how your evaluation has changed since May 29, and why?
Would be interesting to hear how your evaluation has changed since May 29, and why?
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
@Johan: I found this quote from you in an earlier thread:
Would be interesting to hear how your evaluation has changed since May 29, and why?
I was obviously very wrong. Well, not perhaps very wrong since that was then and this is now. Times change
Now I'd say low 90's is a floor that it would take extreme poor outlook for Tesla, or a general economic collapse, for TSLA to fall below.
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
My financial advisor is the only one I talk to about this. But the conversation goes like this: "Why didn't you tell me to buy TSLA???" ... "Dan, I did." ... "But I didn't think you were serious!"
LOL!
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I was obviously very wrong. Well, not perhaps very wrong since that was then and this is now. Times change
Now I'd say low 90's is a floor that it would take extreme poor outlook for Tesla, or a general economic collapse, for TSLA to fall below.
How is it obvious that you were wrong? Does the appreciation of the stock, which may even be due to a short squeeze, change its "right" value? Or provide material information about what the "right" price is?
Citizen-T
Active Member
I have run into that. "But you didn't really drive it home". Or "but then you told me the reasons to be cautious". There is no winning with advice.
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I really thought this Tuesday would be different. It has gotten to the point where one has to consider just exiting on Mondays and rebuying positions at the close on Tuesday...
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
I guess the right price is whatever the stock is traded for at any given moment. There is nothing more to it really. Just like today, the stock's right price is slightly less than yesterday. Go figure
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
I think you got it backwards. I'm not Dan. He was complaining to me that I didn't tell him to buy TSLA. Because I did. (He's an advisor, not the decision-maker.)
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Wow. Some GS or MS client really needs to be in/out at $142. Pegged there since the open.
Finally stepped off. Was pegged for a solid hour. Truly amazing.
Finally stepped off. Was pegged for a solid hour. Truly amazing.
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deonb
Active Member
Tip:
If you're like me and got an uncomfortably overweight position in $200 Aug 17 calls (I got them when they were at 11c - not my fault that they're up 700%...), it may be a good idea to exchange them for $190's.
The $200 premium is pretty high right now so it's an attractive exchange.
You can do about a 3 for 2 direct exchange, or try and time the day (risky) to get a 4 for 3 exchange.
After the 3 for 2 exchange, the 190's will be worth more than the 200's unless the underlying goes over $220.
But if it goes over $220, please don't blame me if you did this.
If you're like me and got an uncomfortably overweight position in $200 Aug 17 calls (I got them when they were at 11c - not my fault that they're up 700%...), it may be a good idea to exchange them for $190's.
The $200 premium is pretty high right now so it's an attractive exchange.
You can do about a 3 for 2 direct exchange, or try and time the day (risky) to get a 4 for 3 exchange.
After the 3 for 2 exchange, the 190's will be worth more than the 200's unless the underlying goes over $220.
But if it goes over $220, please don't blame me if you did this
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