I’ve been reading and listening to lots of opinions on this matter from legal experts and former SEC employees. Here are a few examples.
A law professor
said that the SEC could simply be looking at the incident as a case study and so would take no enforcement action at all.
Another law professor and a former SEC attorney
said there was not yet clear evidence of wrongdoing.
A former SEC commissioner
said that the incident was unfortunate and avoidable; that the SEC would likely sue Tesla and the matter would be settled out of court — I imagine that Elon would end up paying a fine.
A former SEC chair thought the matter was potentially more serious,
saying that Elon could be liable for stock traders’ damages and even face criminal prosecution if the SEC found he made a false material statement. However, he also said, “Whether or not he's done anything illegal is far from certain.”
In 2016, the SEC
sent a letter to Tesla about the company using non-GAAP financial metrics in its shareholder letters. This is an example of the SEC taking action / issuing guidance after an investigation, where the matter wasn’t serious and is now pretty much forgotten. There was no fine or other penalty. So, this goes to show that SEC can investigate and even take action, even if the ramifications are ultimately small.
So, here are four possible outcomes:
- the SEC finishes its inquiry and takes no action
- the SEC issues guidance but gives no penalty (as in the non-GAAP financials case)
- the SEC sues and, in the settlement, Elon ends up paying a fine
- Elon is liable for damages (potentially in the billions) and/or faces criminal prosecution
It is surprising that there is such a broad range of possible outcomes, from nothing to criminal prosecution. Most (
not all) of the experts said there was not yet clear evidence of wrongdoing. I haven’t found much yet on what legal experts think the phrase “funding secured” has to mean in order to be truthful — whether an informal verbal offer is sufficient, or whether it has to be a legally binding signed agreement.
Update (2:57pm EST) – I found this
quote from another former SEC attorney:
"The SEC needs to determine if Musk's first tweet was a false statement when he put it out," said Gorman. "There must be some documentation around conversations about funding, even if it's limited. If the Saudi sovereign wealth fund has the ability and willingness to do this, and Musk knew at the time, you might not like the way he did this, but I don't think that's an enforcement case."