I don’t even expect the CCs adapter for the model 3 to be able to handle more than 50kw as its mimicking the chademo. Which is ok for me. It’s just going to be a backup for trips that don’t have Superchargers. Which is a good amount still up here in western Canada.
The Setec CCS adapter
can handle more than 50kW on Model S and X. I've seen multiple YouTube reviews of the device that show it getting 60kW or more on such vehicles. For some reason, though, the Model 3/Y firmware restricts amperage to 125A with this adapter (and presumably the CHAdeMO adapter, which is hardware-limited to 125A), but the Model S/X firmware doesn't do so. (Caveat: I don't know about the S and X Plaid models.) Thus, if Tesla were to make the Model 3/Y act more like the Model S/X, the Setec adapter would suddenly get a boost to a theoretical maximum of 80kW (200A x 400v). It's conceivable Tesla might do this in conjunction with the release of their own CCS adapter for the Korean market (see below) -- but then too, Tesla might intentionally limit their adapter to 50kW, have it work via a different protocol, make the Tesla-side software changes apply only to Korea, etc.
There are reports earlier in this thread and elsewhere about experimental Setec firmware that enables the device to work around the Tesla-side 3/Y 125A limit, presumably by spoofing the Supercharger protocols rather than the CHAdeMO adapter protocols. The trouble is that there are two reports (that I know of) of cars whose charging systems have been physically damaged after using this experimental firmware, so it seems buggy in a downright dangerous way. Nonetheless, Setec might get this fixed in the future. It's far from certain that this will happen, though, and I certainly wouldn't want to be one of the first people to use such an upgrade -- I'll let others be guinea pigs on that before I risk my own car, particularly on a road trip.
In sum, then, the current Setec CCS adapter is capable of higher charging rates (theoretically 70kW or 80kW, depending on pack voltage) on S and X vehicles; and there are two ways the limit might be raised on 3 and Y vehicles in the future. If I had to lay odds, I'd say there's a 50% chance of the current Setec CCS adapter producing higher speeds on the 3 and Y within a year, with a Setec firmware update being the more likely path to that result than a Tesla car-side update.
Does anyone realistically think that tesla will make an official CCS adapter ? I really don’t think so, or they will be opening themselves up to pressure from the public and lawmakers to allow non Tesla’s to charge at Superchargers. Maybe I’m wrong, Either way I think it works better if it’s an unofficial adapter, as it keeps the amount of Tesla’s at ccs chargers low, so more space for those of us who have it!
Tesla has already announced a CCS adapter for the South Korean market. Teslas sold in South Korea use the same plug as North American Teslas, so there's a good chance that this adapter, if it moves out of vaporware status, will work in the US. AFAIK, Tesla has been mum about the possibility of selling the adapter in North America, but I expect there will be some grey market imports if Tesla doesn't bring it to North America in an official capacity -- at least, if somebody tests it and finds that it actually works on North American CCS stations. One of the experiences with the Setec adapter is that the brands of CCS stations in North America aren't quite the same as those prevalent in South Korea, so there were initial problems with compatibility, which Setec resolved fairly quickly via firmware updates. Thus, the South Korean Tesla CCS adapter might not be very reliable in North America unless Tesla decides to actively support it. (OTOH, if Tesla designs and tests the thing in the US before testing it in South Korea, it will likely be compatible with many CCS stations that are popular here.)
I don't see how Tesla's CCS adapter would put any pressure on Tesla to open up the Supercharger network to non-Tesla cars in North America. The adapters under discussion enable Teslas to charge on CCS stations; they'd do nothing to enable CCS vehicles to charge on Superchargers. That would require either an entirely different adapter or Tesla to add CCS (and/or CHAdeMO) cables to its Superchargers. The most that could be said about a Tesla CCS adapter for North America is that it would prove that converting between DC fast charging protocols is possible -- but Tesla's CHAdeMO adapter and Setec's CCS adapter already do this. Going the other way, of course, is a different type of conversion, and Tesla might argue it would be more difficult.
Realistically, needing a non Tesla charger adapter (chademo or ccs) probably affects less than 5% of Tesla owners
In terms of
current needs, you're probably right. As EVs become more common, though, the desirability of an adapter may go up in the not-too-distant future. The reason is to serve people who can't charge at home. Currently, there are more Tesla Supercharger stalls than stalls for CCS/CHAdeMO DC fast chargers in the US; but there are more CCS/CHAdeMO stations than there are Supercharger stations. In my area (Rhode Island), I've seen several CCS/CHAdeMO stations open in the last two years, but there's still only one operational Supercharger in Rhode Island, AFAIK. An apartment-dweller may rely on a DC fast charger at a supermarket or some other frequently-visited location for a good chunk of their charging, and with more CCS/CHAdeMO stations (with a heavy shift toward CCS occurring now, thanks in large part to Electrify America's favoring CCS), an adapter will help make a Tesla a practical vehicle. To be sure, we're still at a point where EVs are
not practical vehicles for most people who can't charge at home or at work, but given the rate of DC fast charger deployment over the past couple of years, it's becoming practical for more apartment-dwellers, and we may reach a tipping point in 2-5 years, at a guess. This tipping point will omit Tesla owners if they can't charge at non-Tesla DC fast chargers, though. Realistically, I don't think this will be a big problem, since there are now two adapters available, and EVgo, at least, is dipping its toes in the water of direct Tesla support. If CCS stations became common enough that people were passing over Teslas for lack of CCS support, I expect Tesla could release an adapter pretty quickly, particularly if the official Tesla CCS adapter for South Korea moves out of vaporware status.
