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No I don't mean specifically you. Just seems like general sentiment suddenly deteriorated over the weekend. I wonder why.
The current setup bears a strong resemblance to early May of last year.
View attachment 1048879

View attachment 1048880

Bearish pennant, or triangle correction in play. The 15m needs some pressure release before going down. Tomorrow.
Great observation. But do you see the daily chart's 21 EMA and 50 SMA are below SP today? In May last year, these moving averages were exactly flipped relative to SP and acted as resistance rather than support.

Also possible is a 5-wave DCB. See below.

TSLA 1hr Aug 18th - Oct 10th, 2023 (corrections).png


TSLA 1hr Oct 31st - Dec 28th, 2023.png


TSLA 1 hr Mar 13th - 31st 2023.png


If this is a DCB, like the others in the pictures, watch for:
  • 3 legs up and 2 consolidation periods
  • RSI divergence
  • Channel lines
  • Strength/weakness of the daily candle structures
There was no RSI divergence on Mar 31st, 2023, but we had a 3.5% gap down at the open on Apr 3rd. This is a clear weakness in the candle structure and a sign of a top. If it is a DCB, the 0.786 fib retracement at 192.20 is likely the max sp would reach. As always, there seems to be at least one new curveball.
 
Great observation. But do you see the daily chart's 21 EMA and 50 SMA are below SP today? In May last year, these moving averages were exactly flipped relative to SP and acted as resistance rather than support.

Also possible is a 5-wave DCB. See below.

View attachment 1048889

View attachment 1048890

View attachment 1048892

If this is a DCB, like the others in the pictures, watch for:
  • 3 legs up and 2 consolidation periods
  • RSI divergence
  • Channel lines
  • Strength/weakness of the daily candle structures
There was no RSI divergence on Mar 31st, 2023, but we had a 3.5% gap down at the open on Apr 3rd. This is a clear weakness in the candle structure and a sign of a top. If it is a DCB, the 0.786 fib retracement at 192.20 is likely the max sp would reach. As always, there seems to be at least one new curveball.
It's not a big concern for me, because the 152.3 bottom last year was a major bottom, taking 3 months to form. Right now the bottom we're looking for is a small correction bottom, so that's why moving averages are not as bearishly stacked as last year.
 
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The Q1 financial results were bad/so-so, but Elon clarifying that they were accelerating the development of a cheaper model (although probably not as cheap as $25k) helped move the stock up.
Elon said a lot of things in the earnings call, a lot of it scripted and very nebulous IMO
 
A Form PX14A6G has just been filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission

Worth a read. Raises a bunch of solid points, but laced with some hysterical oversimplifications and exaggerations.

EXCERPTS:

The Board continues to allow Musk to be overcommitted, not demanding that he devote his attention to his role as CEO and “Technoking” of Tesla. Musk commits significant amounts of time to his roles at X, SpaceX, Neuralink, the Boring Company and other companies. At the 2023 Wall Street Journal CEO Council Summit, Musk reportedly said he divides his time between these companies by focusing on “predominantly one company on one day.”11

The Board exposes shareholders to unnecessary risk by allowing Musk to pledge significant amounts of Tesla stock as collateral to fund his other pursuits.12 If Musk were ever forced to sell his pledged stock, it could lead to a massive drop in stock price to the detriment of shareholders.13

The lack of Board oversight has effectively enabled Musk to use Tesla as a coffer for himself and his other business endeavors, even if these actions come at Tesla’s expense. In 2022, Musk admitted to using Tesla engineers to work on issues at Twitter (now known as X), and defended the decision by saying that no Tesla Board member had stopped him from using Tesla staff for his other businesses.14 More recently, Musk has begun poaching top engineers from Tesla’s AI and autonomy team for his new company, xAI, including Ethan Knight, who was computer vision chief at Tesla.15

This is on the heels of Musk’s post on X that he is “uncomfortable growing Tesla to be a leader in AI & robotics without having ~25% voting control,” a move widely seen as a threat to push Tesla’s Board to grant him another mega pay package. 16

Additional evidence of Tesla Board dysfunction was reported in a series of articles in the Wall Street Journal, which chronicled the departure of Directors who reportedly left amid frustration with the Board. Most recently, “Hiromichi Mizuno, a former chief investment officer of Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund, left the Tesla Board in 2023 after three years in part because of the lack of ability he felt he had to work on improving the company’s governance-related practices.” The series also reported that former Board member Linda Johnson Rice left the Board after her concerns about Musk’s drug use were “brushed off” by other members of the Board, and some Board members felt an expectation to consume drugs with Musk or risk upsetting him.17

If Board members are unable to resist pressure to use illegal substances for fear of alienating the person they are obligated to supervise, one can hardly imagine they will stand up to Musk when corporate issues requiring Board input and oversight are at stake.

------

Our concerns over Tesla’s governance, and in particular the many potential distracting initiatives the Board allows Musk to pursue, are reinforced by Tesla’s declining share price and operational performance over the past three years. While Tesla’s share price grew at an extraordinary rate between 2019 and 2021, since reaching a peak in November 2021, Tesla’s share price has declined substantially. From March 19, 2020 to November 4, 2021 Tesla’s share price rose from $28.51 to $409.71, an increase of $381.20 per share, but has since fallen to $172.63, a decline of $237.08 or 62% from its peak. Table 1 below compares Tesla’s share price performance to the S&P 500, GM, and Ford over the most recent 1, 3, and 5 year periods.

Similar to the pattern seen with Tesla’s share price, Tesla’s operating performance has declined since the early part of the pandemic. With respect to sales, this has taken the form of a “regression to the mean” where Tesla’s annual revenue growth has reverted to its 2019 rate, while Tesla’s profitability has actually gone in reverse, with both gross and operating profit falling in 2023 compared to 2022. Table 3 shows Tesla’s annual growth in these metrics for each year since 2018.

---------

Tesla’s revenue growth has been rather volatile, even as it has been positive in each full fiscal year. This volatility in sales growth has been matched with respect to gross profit (revenue minus externally purchased inputs), the growth rate of which has fluctuated even more. Because Tesla reported no EBIT prior to 2019, its 2020 growth rate is not a very meaningful indicator. It is, however, important to note that the year-to-year decline in the EBIT growth rate, which is much more severe than the decline in either sales or Gross Profit, suggests that operating issues have played an important role in Tesla’s share price decline, even if other factors – like declining growth in China or increased raw materials costs/bottlenecks – have also played a role.

Recently, Tesla has announced performance metrics for the first quarter of 2024, and the troubling trends continue: Tesla saw overall revenue drop 9%, automotive revenue drop 13%, and net income drop 55%, relative to the first quarter of 2023.


------


The Board’s Failure to Curtail the CEO Jeopardizes Tesla’s Brand

Over the past few years, Elon Musk has dominated the headlines with his public fights with regulators, acquisition of Twitter, controversial statements on X, and his legal and personal troubles. Tesla’s reputation has been deeply intertwined with that of Elon Musk, and there are indications that the steady stream of negative Musk-related press coverage has led to a decline in the Company’s reputation among consumers which in turn is having a negative effect on Tesla’s bottom line.21

Caliber, a market intelligence firm, reported that Tesla’s “consideration score” had plummeted from 70% in 2021 to 31% in February of this year. The “consideration score” measures consumers’ level of trust in a brand, and whether or not they would consider buying its products. Caliber attributed, in part, the declining score to Musk’s personal reputation. According to Oppenheimer & Co. Senior Analyst, Colin Rusch, consumers who are reluctant to be associated with Elon Musk are starting to look to “spend their dollars elsewhere."

Further, Tesla dropped to 62nd place in the 2023 Axios Harris Poll 100, which gauges the reputations of the most visible brands in America. That’s 50 places below its 12th place ranking in 2022, which itself was a four-spot slip from its 8th place ranking in 2021. This recent drop was induced by declines in all nine categories the Axios Harris Poll 100 measures, but the largest declines were in the categories of character, trust, culture and ethics. Competitors Honda, Subaru, Toyota, BMW, Ford, GM and Volkswagen ranked higher than Tesla.23

These indicators of a declining reputation are particularly worrisome for investors in light of Tesla’s disappointing first quarter, in which the Company produced 46,000 more vehicles than it sold, which according to analysts may be a sign of softening demand.24 With competition in the EV space ramping up, and cheaper and more varied options becoming available to consumers, Tesla and its long-term investors cannot afford to stand by as potential customers are being turned off from the Company due to the Board’s failure to reign in the CEO.25


---

Chaotic Legal Landscape and Tesla’s Long Standing Compensation Issues

One goal of a well-designed compensation package is to promote long-term growth and stability, both of which Tesla shareholders need and neither of which would be solved via ratification of the 2018 Pay Package. Corporate law experts, including Tulane law professor Ann Lipton, have raised important questions as to whether ratification of the 2018 Pay Package will expose the Company to additional lawsuits based on the issue of corporate waste. She notes:

“Tesla seems to be trying to have it two ways: this is both a new compensation package, with new board consideration and new shareholder approval, in light of facts that exist today, and an old one. By saying it’s an old one, Tesla can claim there was no need to reconsider the substance of it; by saying it’s a new one, Tesla can claim that the process was done correctly, with an independent board committee and full disclosure to shareholders.”35

Yet it cannot be both ways and this attempt will certainly incur additional litigation costs. Tesla itself states that neither the Special Committee nor its advisors can “predict with certainty how a vote to ratify Musk’s compensation would be treated under Delaware law in these novel circumstances.”36

More fundamentally, ratification of the 2018 Pay Package fails to begin to address Tesla’s issues going forward. At this year’s annual meeting, the Compensation Committee had an opportunity to set a future compensation plan with new metrics but failed to take it. If shareholders ratify the 2018 Pay Package, there could be another plan in 2025. Given Tesla’s history of exponentially larger awards, Musk may well ask for another award. 37

Additionally, one of the unaddressed issues facing Tesla is Musk’s role as effectively being a part-time CEO. In 2018, ISS noted that “one of the primary reasons for the award's design and magnitude is to retain and focus Musk on Tesla's success for the duration of the ten-year term.” If this was one of the primary reasons for the 2018 pay package, then it has been an abysmal failure, as six years later Musk’s outside business commitments have only increased.

The 2018 Pay Package Does Not Serve Tesla Shareholders

In 2018, one could argue about the rigor of the targets, but by now, those goals have all been met. Shareholders should not pretend that this award has any kind of incentivizing effect—it does not. What it does have is an excessiveness problem, which has been glaringly apparent from the start. We note that both major proxy advisors, Institutional Shareholder Services and Glass-Lewis, recommended AGAINST the 2018 Pay Package previously. ISS’ 2018 report noted that it was not clear if “the oard gave any indication to investors that the magnitude would total in the billions of dollars, the largest-ever of its kind.” It is only through Tornetta that we know that the Board did not even negotiate with Musk about the size of the award, and the Special Committee Report confirms that this lack of negotiation remains unaddressed in this ratification proposal.


Conclusion

In light of these myriad concerns, we urge you to vote against the reelection of Kimbal Musk and James Murdoch and against the ratification of the 2018 Pay Package at the upcoming AGM. It is crucial for us, as shareholders, to ensure that our Board is composed of individuals who can provide effective oversight, independent judgment, and put the best interests of Tesla and its stakeholders first.


Sincerely,

Amalgamated Bank
AkademikerPension
Nordea Asset Management
New York City Comptroller Brad Lander
SHARE
SOC Investment Group
UNISON
United Church Funds


https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/...=operational_trigger&utm_term=quarterlyupdate
I'm pleased that Musk's erratic behaviour and the BoD's utter hopelessness is being exposed to scrutiny. I'm actually OK with Musk being a bit "out there", but I deplore the board's lack of any control over events, specifically advising/forcing Musk to sell his shares in a more shareholder-friendly manner (and don't get me started on Kimbal-insider-Musk...)
 
I'm pleased that Musk's erratic behaviour and the BoD's utter hopelessness is being exposed to scrutiny. I'm actually OK with Musk being a bit "out there", but I deplore the board's lack of any control over events, specifically advising/forcing Musk to sell his shares in a more shareholder-friendly manner (and don't get me started on Kimbal-insider-Musk...)

That we only hear from the aloof BOD now when they need us and not when we were going through pain in 2022 and 2023, etc. is coming home to roost.
Like any healthy relationship, if they would only communicate that things will be "better and different" here on out that would help assuage legit concerns. I'm sure there's a way for them to do so without legal entanglements (which they are already in anyway).

Maybe we're also getting a glimpse of why Zack left when he did...
 
Transcript of Tesla‘s new video regarding the 6/13 vote (14 million views so far):

[Elon:] The goal is to give people hope that there is a path to a fully sustainable global economy, that we are on that path, that we are accelerating that path and that, so long as we don't get complacent about it, it will happen. [Missing: And we won't get complacent about protecting your investment and trust in Tesla.]

[Another voice:] This was really the beginning of the end of the Tesla bubble. I actually think the company could go bust [in 2018].

[Another voice:] Tesla's model Y is the world's bestselling car, beating out Toyota's Rav4 and its Corolla Models.

[Elon:] Regarding FSD version 12, it's profound. The rate of improvement is rapid. It might be the biggest asset value appreciation in history when you can do unsupervised full self-driving.

[Another voice:] I mean, that just sounds like a story stock. Autonomous taxi? I mean, can you really balance your checkbook with, you know, sort of pie in the sky predictions like that?

[Elon:] If you ask the wrong question, the right answer is impossible.

[Elon:] My prediction is that a majority of Tesla's long-term value will be Optimus. And that prediction I'm very confident of.

[Elon:] It's very rare a product comes along that is seemingly impossible, that experts said would never be made, and this is one of those times. Finally, the future will look like the future.

[Elon:] People say like, “Why'd you make it bulletproof?” I'm like... why not?

[Elon:] Energy storage deployments, the Megapack in particular, reached an all-time high in Q1 leading to record profitability for the energy business.

[Elon:] This is the machine that builds the machine, and the factory is the product. And this building is the most advanced car factory that Earth has ever seen.

[Elon:] If you value Tesla as an auto company, it's just the wrong framework. If somebody doesn't believe Tesla is going to solve autonomy, I think they should not be an investor in the company. But we will. And we are.

——

Elon just posted this regarding the video:

 
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Not so sure about that. Will likely take 2+ years for any OEM to develop and outfit a car to use FSD and any revenue flow to Tesla will only come down the road.

Open to another view.
Uhh yeah, it will take awhile to see the money but that doesn't mean the stock wouldn't rocket. Also just like the supercharging standard, we may see a domino effect when one major automaker getting the party started. This gives Tesla's FSD credibility and probably will tank mobile eye stocks instantly.
 
That we only hear from the aloof BOD now when they need us and not when we were going through pain in 2022 and 2023, etc. is coming home to roost.
Like any healthy relationship, if they would only communicate that things will be "better and different" here on out that would help assuage legit concerns. I'm sure there's a way for them to do so without legal entanglements (which they are already in anyway).

Maybe we're also getting a glimpse of why Zack left when he did...

I think it is also telling that Elon has moderated his Twitter usage now, when he is at the mercy of shareholders. Indicates to me he knows his prior behavior reflected poorly on him with regard to his role at Tesla.
 
Uhh yeah, it will take awhile to see the money but that doesn't mean the stock wouldn't rocket. Also just like the supercharging standard, we may see a domino effect when one major automaker getting the party started. This gives Tesla's FSD credibility and probably will tank mobile eye stocks instantly.
You raise an interesting point about MobileEye, we think it’s Legacy Auto and Big Oil behind the FUD/shorts, I didn’t really consider it could also be the other driving-automation companies as well who are looking to protect their turf.
 
Transcript of Tesla‘s new video regarding the 6/13 vote (14 million views so far):

[Elon:] The goal is to give people hope that there is a path to a fully sustainable global economy, that we are on that path, that we are accelerating that path and that, so long as we don't get complacent about it, it will happen. [Missing: And we won't get complacent about protecting your investment and trust in Tesla.]

[Another voice:] This was really the beginning of the end of the Tesla bubble. I actually think the company could go bust [in 2018].

[Another voice:] Tesla's model Y is the world's bestselling car, beating out Toyota's Rav4 and its Corolla Models.

[Elon:] Regarding FSD version 12, it's profound. The rate of improvement is rapid. It might be the biggest asset value appreciation in history when you can do unsupervised full self-driving.

[Another voice:] I mean, that just sounds like a story stock. Autonomous taxi? I mean, can you really balance your checkbook with, you know, sort of pie in the sky predictions like that?

[Elon:] If you ask the wrong question, the right answer is impossible.

[Elon:] My prediction is that a majority of Tesla's long-term value will be Optimus. And that prediction I'm very confident of.

[Elon:] It's very rare a product comes along that is seemingly impossible, that experts said would never be made, and this is one of those times. Finally, the future will look like the future.

[Elon:] People say like, “Why'd you make it bulletproof?” I'm like... why not?

[Elon:] Energy storage deployments, the Megapack in particular, reached an all-time high in Q1 leading to record profitability for the energy business.

[Elon:] This is the machine that builds the machine, and the factory is the product. And this building is the most advanced car factory that Earth has ever seen.

[Elon:] If you value Tesla as an auto company, it's just the wrong framework. If somebody doesn't believe Tesla is going to solve autonomy, I think they should not be an investor in the company. But we will. And we are.

——

Elon just posted this regarding the video:

You know the more I am watching this, the more I feel like everyone is wrong about what this video actually mean by "protecting Tesla's shareholders" with this vote. I don't believe Elon is going anywhere and he's not moving any announced projects at Tesla to another company. I think what they mean by "protecting" is that this vote, if fails, can open up more frivolous lawsuits from all sorts of shareholders(mainly shorts or activists) that will constantly attack Tesla and rip away agreed upon votes of the past at will.

I mean if you think about it, how often do you see a small shareholder who literally lost like 1 dollar worth of his total EPS, to Elon Musk's compensation plan, spent all this time suing Tesla and then got something like this overturned, putting additional pressure on the company that NO OTHER COMPANY ever worries about. This is BS of all BS and this is what the vote is trying to protect against, future BS like this.
 
Community PSA for TDA/TOS migration users:

for the most part, all things seem to have come over accurately and things started working fine as planned… but there is ONE disclosure or agreement that doesn’t come over - I have now learned from a friend in Schwab that needs to be re-confirmed ON the SCHWAB site

It enables, or disables depending REAL TIME QUOTING in the TOS apps, both mobile and desktop. So, IF one hasn’t confirmed this agreement, then you have most likely been getting 15 min delayed quotes.. pre, post and market hours.

It’s the “professional/non-professional” trading agreement. Doesn’t matter really what one selects, I’M non-pro even though I have some cents, most of us are probably also. But, one won’t actually have real time quotes till the form is pulled up and a selection made and then “agreed” to and then it should work as expected. Just go to SEARCH on the site, for professional and it should be the top hit.

I actually had started noticing things delayed on Friday last week, but couldn’t figure it out and it didn’t really matter TOO much, but now we know.
 
How are you planning to approach June 13 position wise?

Myself I feel I would like to sell -C240 12/24 on half my shares (which are at $243 CB anyway), win either direction. Only downside seems if we take out $250 by then but that doesn’t seem like a realistic target from this vantage point.

About my 15x -P300 6/2026, which can survive down to around $130 I think I’ll take that risk and deal with assignment then (I currently believe $138 will hold regardless).
Not sure if anyone else received a call, but I just got a VM from someone representing the Tesla Board asking:

“This is Greg Dyer calling on behalf of the board directors Tesla incorporated for XXXXX XXXXXX. This is a personal business matter please return my call at 1- 8 7 7- 8 0 0- 5 1 8 2 We are available 10 AM to 7 PM Eastern time Monday through Friday At 10 AM to 2 PM on Saturday Thank you…”

They were calling to see if I had any questions on voting.

Gotta say, this is a little freaky. I already voted all of my shares. Yet, they are doing a “full court press” to get the vote out.
My thoughts are this is not looking good for Elon and his pay package…but maybe I am reading too much into this.

Thoughts?
 
You know the more I am watching this, the more I feel like everyone is wrong about what this video actually mean by "protecting Tesla's shareholders" with this vote. I don't believe Elon is going anywhere and he's not moving any announced projects at Tesla to another company. I think what they mean by "protecting" is that this vote, if fails, can open up more frivolous lawsuits from all sorts of shareholders(mainly shorts or activists) that will constantly attack Tesla and rip away agreed upon votes of the past at will.

I mean if you think about it, how often do you see a small shareholder who literally lost like 1 dollar worth of his total EPS, to Elon Musk's compensation plan, spent all this time suing Tesla and then got something like this overturned, putting additional pressure on the company that NO OTHER COMPANY ever worries about. This is BS of all BS and this is what the vote is trying to protect against, future BS like this.

buy buy buy!!…
Honestly, does anyone believe this man. The fact that he feels compelled to say “I did not ask” for them to put this together, literally MEANS he asked them to put it together. I can think of another person who does this sort of five year old reverse psychology constantly.

I would much prefer that they put forward a new proposal, made up of 50% of the prior one - as a reduced allocation now that the company has been driven into a ditch, and a NEW one that everyone votes on, with knowledge and understanding that closes the loop.. let’s call it another 30B for 1.25T target bogey in four years. Heck, give him another 50B in four years if he hits that. Sadly, there would still be some shareholders under water. ;-0
 
Not sure if anyone else received a call, but I just got a VM from someone representing the Tesla Board asking:

“This is Greg Dyer calling on behalf of the board directors Tesla incorporated for XXXXX XXXXXX. This is a personal business matter please return my call at 1- 8 7 7- 8 0 0- 5 1 8 2 We are available 10 AM to 7 PM Eastern time Monday through Friday At 10 AM to 2 PM on Saturday Thank you…”

They were calling to see if I had any questions on voting.

Gotta say, this is a little freaky. I already voted all of my shares. Yet, they are doing a “full court press” to get the vote out.
My thoughts are this is not looking good for Elon and his pay package…but maybe I am reading too much into this.

Thoughts?

That does seem desperate but maybe they have to go above and beyond so no one says they didn't make efforts for full-disclosure to all shareholders?
Either way, I'd definitely call that number (it's a legit Tesla number: Contacts - Tesla) and mention/ask about our retail concerns.
 
Not sure if anyone else received a call, but I just got a VM from someone representing the Tesla Board asking:

“This is Greg Dyer calling on behalf of the board directors Tesla incorporated for XXXXX XXXXXX. This is a personal business matter please return my call at 1- 8 7 7- 8 0 0- 5 1 8 2 We are available 10 AM to 7 PM Eastern time Monday through Friday At 10 AM to 2 PM on Saturday Thank you…”

They were calling to see if I had any questions on voting.

Gotta say, this is a little freaky. I already voted all of my shares. Yet, they are doing a “full court press” to get the vote out.
My thoughts are this is not looking good for Elon and his pay package…but maybe I am reading too much into this.

Thoughts?
There is no world where I would ever answer, or respond to a call or VM like this. God help the poor schlub who calls them back, maybe gives a few verifying credentials, last four of SS#, maybe where your shares are held. Who knows what they could do. With Schwab having moved to final verification of identity to “my voice is my password” (sneakers anyone?) it wouldn’t take much from a recorded call to put enough of this together to authenticate.

I’m probably overthinking that, but well that’s what I’ve been trained to do. We’re in a whole new world these days with spoofing, fishing, phishing, voice emulating, credential stuffing. We gotta figure this stuff out fast or the quantum computing AI is going to break every password we have.