Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[dl003]

Hey, no cherry-picking
In the same update Wicked also said that if TSLA reclaims $173.99 and holds then the bearish scenario is reversed.

Everyone's trying their best.

It's really difficult to cherry pick someone who covers all their bases with if/then's. If it doesn't go up then it's going to be very bearish. If it reclaims this then it's bullish.

 

[Jim Holder]

$180 will need a big push to get through the supply and past GEX wall:

 

[Jim Holder]

It's really difficult cherry pick someone who covers all their bases with if/then's. If it doesn't go up then it's going to be very bearish. If it's reclaim this then it's bullish.

True, but EW is also filled with if/then

 

[dl003]

True, but EW is also filled with if/then

Which is why someone who does their TA solely based on EWT is next to worthless.

 

[Jim Holder]

Interesting, blocked by the 65-day:

Daily

 

[BornToFly]

I was hoping that after 5 days of lower highs last week, that this week would be green. BUT, I was scared it would keep going down, which is how I ended up selling my CCs too early yesterday on the first sign of green at the open.

 

[CHGolferJim]

I was hoping that after 5 days of lower highs last week, that this week would be green. BUT, I was scared it would keep going down, which is how I ended up selling my CCs too early yesterday on the first sign of green at the open.

It seems rare to have 2 up days after a weak week, but I don’t have stats to define it.

 

[Jim Holder]

One level at a time:

 

[Jim Holder]

I was hoping that after 5 days of lower highs last week, that this week would be green. BUT, I was scared it would keep going down, which is how I ended up selling my CCs too early yesterday on the first sign of green at the open.

Still holding?

 

[BornToFly]

Still holding?

Yes. I'm hoping 187.5 doesn't get breached by Friday.

 

[ChiefRollo]

One level at a time:

View attachment 1047056

Is the white bar the daily 34EMA?

 

[mrmage]

Didn’t hear of them till last Fri , and not discrediting them or anything…

But one think for sure , the crooks on WS must be scheming to give us the Nikolas, Lordstowns and Fiskers of FSD …

Take a look at the Wayve videos, especially the ones driving around London. They've been doing it for a long time and it looks impressive. The Bill Gates blog on his ride there is credible, and that was a year ago. That made me wonder what else I was missing, so I looked into the recent cars coming out of China.

XPeng has a decent autopilot that operates on highway and city that's no longer dependent on maps. Most cars seem to have some level of FSD. Also, the new IM Motors L6 is around $50k and includes 1000 km WLTC (>400 miles EPA) and < 3 sec 0-60, has been getting strong reviews.

The competition from China looks shockingly strong, especially for the price. The cars from the west, especially non-Tesla brands, have been lagging the ones in Asia by years. No doubt the reason behind Elon saying that the China companies are the real competition.

I wonder if that's why he feels that the need to pivot Tesla towards FSD. Competing on the hardware side is a losing battle against the Chinese OEMs. With the AI chip ban against China, Tesla has a potential chance of competing if they're allowed to train their base FSD model in western datacenters.

Otoh, if Tesla is required to train the FSD model within China, competing against the Chinese OEMs will be much harder.

 

[Jim Holder]

Is the white bar the daily 34EMA?

It's the 10-day. The 34-day is the orange one below it.

 

[BornToFly]

Still holding?

Yes. I'm hoping 187.5 doesn't get breached by Friday. I would think CPI ends the rally tomorrow, but 1 hr and 2hr MACD suggests this climb continues.

 

[Jim Holder]

BTO a handful of +P500 6/21 SPY @1.90

 

[Jim Holder]

-GEX (Reds) have been shrinking for the next two weeks until June. Looks bullish.
Perhaps the June 7 puts are setting up for the retracement back down after $200-208?

 

[Max Plaid]

omg LEAPS is so complicated; i think i'll stay with stocks

thank you

Well it depends how long the expiration in your LEAP, if it's for Jan 2026 then you have 80x expiries to sell against, if the LEAP cost you $360 averaging $4 per week in profit break you even... that's what I try to do as a minimum... then if the stock moons and you get out of the way, sell the LEAP for profits anyway, then move to some other trade

 

[Jim Holder]

For a Tuesday TSLA has been quite resilient + appears to be closing not far from HOD. Therefore I closed for modest gains some scalping CCs I had opened earlier at opening push.

Looks like absent CPI pulling the plug, there will be another chance to sell again at tomorrow’s highs >$180. Question is can it stay up?

 

[Max Plaid]

i think i understand LEAPS

what i don't get is management (when to roll, what to do when stock is up, what to do when stock is down, etc)

coz from what i've seen on this thread, ppl lose "everything" on LEAPS

whereas i can't lose anything on stock (just need to wait for sp to rise again)

perhaps i'll forget about it and stick with stocks to keep this simple

I'll let you into a secret, I made loads of money on LEAPS back in 2020-21, of course it was facilitated by the stock going up, but the real reason is that I didn't sell short against them back in those days, I bought them cheap and sold them when they stock went higher, then waited for the stock to fall again and did the same

Sometimes keeping it simple turn out best

 

[Max Plaid]

The more you trade them the more you lose; that is the benefit of holding. Theta is pretty low until about 90-180 days out. Delta is also proportionately lower so rolling isn't a huge priority.

Personally when I buy LEAPS the strikes are usually about half the stock price. So, a 10% drop in long term value is a 20% loss. I do them as a share substitute and to free up cash. I have some June and December LEAPS in TSLA that will be pretty big losses unless some magic happens, but I have covered them with other trading to the point that I look at it as sunk cash.

People losing everything are often buying FOTM calls that essentially are gambling. Also... selling LEAP Puts can be amazingly complicated to manage. I still do it occasionally but it is risky.

Short LEAP straddles for the win! NFA...