Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Jim Holder]

Hard to see this puppy going up before P&D/ER, and hard to see it not crashing after that unless there's a very big rabbit pulled out of Elon's hat

My gut tells me that since many/most are expecting the floor to fall out of TSLA again and fall even deeper on the Q1 P&D or Earnings Call --and for the 5th time in the recent past-- it could be it won't and all the ugly news is already "priced in."

A counter-argument may be that the P/E is still way too high with all the new realities and needs more compression still, so $140-$125 is not really out of the question.

Clear as mud, I know

Practically speaking comes down to do we short into any DCB or not, and at what point do we cut all long delta?

 

[thenewguy1979]

All we need is Max to drop his wallet and buy those 10k shares he kept talking about and we rocket back up. Look like he’s joining the 16x TivoBoy’s gang now

 

[CHGolferJim]

i do

Me, too. For me, @Yoona, @dl003 and @MaxPlaid are at least 50% of the value of the forum.

Too many others + and - to mention, no offense

 

[SpeedyEddy]

I think your definition of dropping like a stone is different than mine. But regardless this week seems dangerous to me for SMCI due to S&P inclusion this friday, so while I made some trades early on this week, I got out yesterday and am leaving it alone and will revisit it next week

(/ Still OT: about SMCI...) you mean, like $TSLA buy the rumor, sell the fact? (Tesla lost 9% in the first three days of being included, but was back at the same level 5 days later (included in S&P on Monday 21th of dec 2020), so I hope on losing the -C SMCI May 1500 without a loss. (/ On topic $TSLA)

 

[BornToFly]

My gut tells me that since many/most are expecting the floor to fall out of TSLA again and fall even deeper on the Q1 P&D or Earnings Call --and for the 5th time in the recent past-- it could be it won't and all the ugly news is already "priced in."

A counter-argument may be that the P/E is still way too high with all the new realities and needs more compression still, so $140-$125 is not really out of the question.

Clear as mud, I know

Practically speaking comes down to do we short into any DCB or not, and at what point do we cut all long delta?

PE is 40. Even if you only gave the Auto business 10, that means you would be giving a PE of 30 to a world leader in AI, robotics, self driving, EV charging refueling (nobody can make charges for the cost/reliability), and world wide energy storage as solar and wind continue to have massive growth. If this was a new company with those quality at IPO it would have a much higher PE than 30, and Tesla has a proven track record. Ridiculous.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

upside-down H&S in the making ? Or a lower top and more downside still to come? First guess would make a neckline around 173.17, indicating e a $175 SP later today.

 

[dl003]

PE is 40. Even if you only gave the Auto business 10, that means you would be giving a PE of 30 to a world leader in AI, robotics, self driving, EV charging refueling (nobody can make charges for the cost/reliability), and world wide energy storage as solar and wind continue to have massive growth. If this was a new company with those quality at IPO it would have a much higher PE than 30, and Tesla has a proven track record. Ridiculous.

to be fair, you have to subtract the valuation allowance from last Q EPS. If you do that, PE is in the 60-80 area.

 

[Jim Holder]

PE is 40. Even if you only gave the Auto business 10, that means you would be giving a PE of 30 to a world leader in AI, robotics, self driving, EV charging refueling (nobody can make charges for the cost/reliability), and world wide energy storage as solar and wind continue to have massive growth. If this was a new company with those quality at IPO it would have a much higher PE than 30. Ridiculous.

Yes, I meant what E are they coming up with. for forward price to EARNINGS, many analysts have projected E at ~ 2.50-3$ for the 2024 year… that changes the ratio for sure, if the P is the same. Current Q1 projects are between .55-70 CENTS, granted a low sales quarter, but not necessarily a high COST quarter. Costs will most likely rise throughout the year, mostly from wages my guess. So, if we put conservatively E at $3, we’re still at 70+ P/E

 

[tivoboy]

PE is 40. Even if you only gave the Auto business 10, that means you would be giving a PE of 30 to a world leader in AI, robotics, self driving, EV charging refueling (nobody can make charges for the cost/reliability), and world wide energy storage as solar and wind continue to have massive growth. If this was a new company with those quality at IPO it would have a much higher PE than 30, and Tesla has a proven track record. Ridiculous.

Trailing, yes, forward P/E is closer to 80-90 depending on price and where E actually lands. Most analysts at least do not think EM will pull a rabbit out of his hat and get E above lowered consensus for 2024.

 

[MikeC]

My gut tells me that since many/most are expecting the floor to fall out of TSLA again and fall even deeper on the Q1 P&D or Earnings Call --and for the 5th time in the recent past-- it could be it won't and all the ugly news is already "priced in."

I think this is very possible and I’m hoping for it, but that’s still 2-5 weeks away. Don’t know what would make us go up before that.

 

[Jim Holder]

I think this is very possible and I’m hoping for it, but that’s still 2-5 weeks away. Don’t know what would make us go up before that.

Agree.

Perhaps word of "settlement" talks in the comp case, or better 2nd half of March sales numbers the next two weeks.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

I am repeating myself (and because I can not always be wrong I repeat myself...;-) that again we could be in for an Island Reversal tomorrow, if
A. This upside-down H&S will be completed ˜(that is: from now on up, crossing through 173.17 andpulling back to 173.17-ish)
B. The normal trajectory beyond 175 after that evolves
C. Closing at the top
D. Thus leaving a long-legged doji for the day
E. Gapping up Tomorrow, 177 or higher on Open

That would be some buy signal, but while writing this post we got a bit stuck 171.80-172.10-ish. That must not last too long as it ruins the H&S.

 

[intelligator]

i stopped sending them, got tired of getting belittled

no one does 6σ 6Δ bets anyway, except me

I've taken these , 4 and 5 delta personally gives me the next level of comfort. Regardless, due diligence isn't optional.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Me, too. For me, @Yoona, @dl003 and @MaxPlaid are at least 50% of the value of the forum.

Too many others + and - to mention, no offense

I'll add @Jim Holder and @tivoboy to that list. For Jim, I really appreciate his consolidation of analysis, news, and efforts to get thoughts out of our resident "oracles." (And his own thoughts too!) For tivo, I respect his clear-eyed forecasts, even if sometimes I don't like what they portend!

 

[thenewguy1979]

My gut tells me that since many/most are expecting the floor to fall out of TSLA again and fall even deeper on the Q1 P&D or Earnings Call --and for the 5th time in the recent past-- it could be it won't and all the ugly news is already "priced in."

A counter-argument may be that the P/E is still way too high with all the new realities and needs more compression still, so $140-$125 is not really out of the question.

Clear as mud, I know

Practically speaking comes down to do we short into any DCB or not, and at what point do we cut all long delta?

How Elon and Team conveyed the Earning and Forecast are not price in. The # is numero uno but the message is as critical. Nobody know what the guy will say but his track records for being a downer has been proven.

The bad ER may have been priced in but the mood swing may have not....

 

[BornToFly]

People who still doubt FSD. This is V12 in Brooklyn. Slows down for speed bumps. Quickly goes around a car that puts on right turn signal to parallel park. Quickly goes around a double parked van and then makes left turn after letting pedestrian past. Finds a place to park on the street and parks itself at the destination. (Edit: New pin starts new drive automatically. This was actual Robotaxi to multiple destinations for over 20 minutes). Really incredible stuff. Start at 6:35 for a taste.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1767894629943292377

 

[intelligator]

Probably not the place for this but will add my experience... 2018M3D, FSD beta, 11.x
Yesterday went door to door, suburb in Central Jersey to Walnut Street, Philadelphia. Drive 1.5 hours, about 60 miles each way, no disengagement. Faced road construction, traffic, aggressive drivers. Suburb and metro city street navigation spot on, albeit at times twitchy, FSD got me there and back safely. Looking forward to next iteration.

Let's get back to trading options

 

[stealthyc]

People who still doubt FSD. This is V12 in Brooklyn. Slows down for speed bumps. Quickly goes around a car that puts on right turn signal to parallel park. Quickly goes around a double parked van and then makes left turn after letting pedestrian past. Finds a place to park on the street and parks itself at the destination. Really incredible stuff. Start at 6:35 for a taste.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1767894629943292377

Definitely getting better, but...

1. Still *very* far from robotaxi use.
2. Soon entering the most dangerous realm where it is good enough that people will stop paying attention (and attention monitoring is currently very sub-par)

I've only ever found FSD to be pretty unusable in any realistic way, but I'm cautiously optimistic about v12. I look forward to trying it out.

 

[thenewguy1979]

I've taken these , 4 and 5 delta personally gives me the next level of comfort. Regardless, due diligence isn't optional.

Combined them with layering create super safe plays IMO. And if taking profit early at 50% would create an even more deadly combo.

1. ICs at 4 or 5 delta
2. Layering the Wings based on daily movement keeping the 4-5 delta
3. Know when to close out early, 50% profit etc....

All Yoona's provided plays. Dog been listening since day 1 but greed has blinded his eyes sometime.

The dog is like a sponge - he listen and absorb everything on this forum and remember all, but too bad his head is more like sponge bob

 

[Jim Holder]

Mid-day update

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MM's would prefer higher SP. Small speed bump to get up and past $175 but then MM help into the $180's: