Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Jim Holder]

From 1599 OI yesterday to 21177 volume today, not even a round number, so maybe multiple trades...?

Looking at the option history, it's multiple trades over the day, just see one biggish block for 1499

View attachment 1022619

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View attachment 1022621

Sheesh, not a good look for TSLA. Though for all we know they took the $8 drop to $198 win and closed it. Hard to judge intent of the plan.

@tivoboy is there a method to reading into these types of trades? Otherwise they wouldn’t be tracked one would think.

 

[Jim Holder]

Apple out, BYD out (if you can trust them):

https://twitter.com/x/status/1762549041638867092

 

[DaBooster]

Apple out, BYD out (if you can trust them…):

https://twitter.com/x/status/1762549041638867092

Whist many suggest that Tesla could license FSD to legacy OEM, Ford/GM etc..... I think they might do a FSD deal with BYD first!

 

[jeewee3000]

Apple out, BYD out (if you can trust them):

https://twitter.com/x/status/1762549041638867092

Ooh don't worry, BYD is taking over Europe first. (I see more and more on Belgian roads each day, and advertizing in the streets)

Hopefully Tesla can get their low cost car out soonish.

 

[tivoboy]

Sheesh, not a good look for TSLA. Though for all we know they took the $8 drop to $198 win and closed it. Hard to judge intent of the plan.

@tivoboy is there a method to reading into these types of trades? Otherwise they wouldn’t be tracked one would think.

I don’t really know, I had only bought 10,000 150 puts contracts for end of week. ;-). But, everything gets tracked, we just really never know intent till after the dust clears.

 

[elasalle]

Apple out, BYD out (if you can trust them):

https://twitter.com/x/status/1762549041638867092

America is the market where quality and performance will get scrutinized the most ... just ask the Hyundais ... so ya if you don't have a A game, better stay away not to mention the high $ for local investment.
Also, the whole world Asia, Africa , latin America is there for the taking ...

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

If we use the low from early Feb and map it back to the 2023 low, the uptrend line will be right around 185 for April 1st which is Q1 P/D numbers.

Right now mp is 195 for that corresponding Friday (4/05). Hoping we get a macro pullback to bring TSLA back down to test that uptrend line at least a couple times to see if we're going to break or not. I wouldn't mind a quick flash drop to the 150's or to fill that long standing gap from early 2023. Would give me a great opportunity to sell some Puts and use some of the proceeds to close out a number of CC's as well as pick up some more 2026 LEAPS.

If TSLA holds that uptrend line until Q1 P/D numbers, I'll likely still make some moves to get more bullish before P/D numbers come out. I feel like Q1 was the opportunity to really try and drive TSLA lower. It might not blast off to start Q2 since Q1 earnings will be a touch comp verses last year but things get a lot more bullish for Tesla Q2 going forward including YoY comps for Q2 and Q3.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Ooh don't worry, BYD is taking over Europe first. (I see more and more on Belgian roads each day, and advertizing in the streets)

Hopefully Tesla can get their low cost car out soonish.

Europe in the early stages of their own IRA bill that will lock out Chinese makers. The more BYD's sales growth there, the quicker Europe is going install protectionism policies to stop Chinese makers from flooding the market.

 

[EVNow]

I decided 215 is safe for Friday, so sold 215 strike CCs on the rest of my shares. Now the SP will go to 220.

Sometime back - you were more conservative than me. But now you seem to sell higher deltas ?

TBF, I'm also now trying to sell 50 cent options, rather than 30.

 

[BornToFly]

AJ has been extremely accurate in the past. I see a lower EPS than last quarter as a big problem for the SP. I don't know if I should get more aggressive with CCs and plan on getting a bail out from the ER.....

https://twitter.com/x/status/1762549352512282844

 

[SpeedyEddy]

not too much action today, I just made a round of SMCI 940 puts which brought in $7.83 a piece and
for this Friday
STO $TSLA -C207.50 @ $2.04
BTO $SMCI +P700 @ $1.50
for 3/8
BTO $NVDA +P635 @$0.61
for 3/22
BTO $ NVDA +P225 @$1.94

Closed shares PLTR near $24
Closed half of SOFI near $9

Did not close anything else, but am stil low on $TSLA stock, ready to buy around 195 or below (depending on macro movement and momentum in price-action)

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Tryin' to catch a cheap SMCI +P 940 just before the close, because the trend the last 5 days is: sell-off on open into a rise the rest of the day.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

PS TSLA Options : No Put-wall, so short-sellers could take an opportunity the coming days

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

AJ has been extremely accurate in the past. I see a lower EPS than last quarter as a big problem for the SP. I don't know if I should get more aggressive with CCs and plan on getting a bail out from the ER.....

https://twitter.com/x/status/1762549352512282844

Yeah Q1 is going to be touch comp on both YoY basis and QoQ. I'm actually somewhat surprised Tesla didn't hold off on the tax allowance until Q1 earnings since the YoY comp's are much easier starting in Q2.

While P/D will be way up YoY, the ASP difference will make a huge impact on revenue. And then on a QoQ basis, Q1 has Chinese new year which makes it a very hard comp against Q4.

But I think even with this, Wall St will be looking forward much more once Q1 is in the rearview mirror.

 

[adiggs]

SW EW update:

TSLA seems to be trying for "more than iv" ($207-$209) which will make another new lower low as C of (2) ($155) less probable. But so far it rejected 2x @ $205.55. And it will still need to hold a retrace to a higher low off $175 after getting the possible 5up to confirm that $175.01 was the bottom.


Primary analysis

View attachment 1022531



Macro Clean

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On the "Primary Analysis" picture, and realize that I'm still learning and studying EWT, one of the "rules" of an impulsive wave is that wave 2 and 4 can not overlap. These are the 2 corrective waves within the larger 5 wave impulsive structure. These are labeled as (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v) rather than 1/2/3/4/5 in that picture, the difference having to do with the grain or level of detail in the data. There is no difference in the rules for impulsive waves at different levels of detail.

In this picture they are showing wave 4 reaching 185, while wave 2 bottoms at 180 (overlapping). I realize that with a lot more practice and study that like most rules, this is one that I might have incomplete information and maybe this construct does arrive in impulsive waves. However of all of the rules (and there aren't a lot), this might be the strongest one of them all. As I understand it if Wave 4 -does- reach up to overlap wave 2, then that is an indicator that you're not in an impulsive wave, but rather that what you've got labeled or projecting as wave 4, is really wave A in a zig-zag (the start of a 3-3-3 or one of the other zig zag (not really going anywhere) patterns).


I don't know what to make of this or how to interpret it, so be sure and chew that chunk of salt thoroughly .

(EDIT to add: Anybody reading differently or additional info, I'm a sponge)

 

[thenewguy1979]

I don’t really know, I had only bought 10,000 150 puts contracts for end of week. ;-). But, everything gets tracked, we just really never know intent till after the dust clears.

Thanks for your sacrifice. You saved all the 205 call seller this week.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Tryin' to catch a cheap SMCI +P 940 just before the close, because the trend the last 5 days is: sell-off on open into a rise the rest of the day.

I've hit this Friday's SMCI +P940 @ $96 for overnight holding.. At the moment even cheaper to get.

 

[Jim Holder]

AJ has been extremely accurate in the past. I see a lower EPS than last quarter as a big problem for the SP. I don't know if I should get more aggressive with CCs and plan on getting a bail out from the ER.....

https://twitter.com/x/status/1762549352512282844

How does his $0.64 compare to other estimates?

 

[SpeedyEddy]

And about that FSD deal with BYD: I am 100% aware of this epic opportunity to be fulfilled to get a huge* launch on the stock. Only thing is, it will take a while I guess. First we have to see general FSD roll-out without Beta!
* huge, because of the numbers of cars BYD sells and the rest of legacy making pull-backs, that indeed wil induce their bankruptcy even faster.

Should have bought more puts than only on GM.
(it is not understandable if you look at Norway that had a lot of incentives that they now retract. Do you think anyone is buying ICE now because of that in Norway? NO. It's cheaper, better, more durable, enviromental-aware.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

How does his $0.64 compare to other estimates?

The estimate on yahoo finance is for $0.68

So it would be a miss