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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Seasonal, not fair to pile on. February was always weaker than December.
Q1 is always weaker than the other Q’s.
Because if they announced it, the optics of it appear to be a price CUT and if that is the case you’re asked why cut if Demand is > Supply - which it’s not.. at least not right at the moment. I’d like to know if Germany is really operating at the low levels that have been rumored - net of the announced shut down due to some supply chain slow down from Red Sea traffic issues. That narrative seemed a bit opportunistic at the time and it might just be that they don’t want to over produce in the EU. This will out at some point.
So i can get free FSD transfer, I could get another $1000 off, when they offer free supercharging for six months (I’d put that at over 50% at this point) then we’ll know something is really going on. Trying to make an end of Q or Y number to reach a predicted target is one thing, but really trying to move product 1/3 of the way through a quarter looks a tad desperate.
Reading between the lines seems the current >$190 DCB won't get too far and anything >$215 is a long way off. Seeing same?
Wondering how much to tilt long/short the next few weeks and setting up for them. This week also has CPI/PPI wildcard.
Probably any -C >$225 for any DTE over next couple months *may* be safe (as safe as TSLA can be…), and >$205 for next week and >$215 the week after.
Getting some +P170 3/28 may also not be a bad idea on pops this week, though there might be a cheaper way to accomplish the same via spreads.
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ChiefRollo
Member
I think between the two options, price reduction catches the attention of potential buyers who care about affordability more readily…thanks to widely publicized and free negative publicity. Financial support in term of rate buy down on the other hand is less superficial and limited in reach, perhaps, whether intended or not, geared toward a different customer segment.
Regarding demand vs. supply, it’s probably not that obvious a read; I had an X on order from early October and did not get a VIN by year end. After switching to the Y performance on the 12/31, I’m still waiting for a VIN. Last EDD was 2/29 - 3/31. While we see Tesla’s in inventory, we also know about backorders, new model designs…and new factories being built as well as planned. Perhaps automotive business is more complex than us lay folks realize. Regarding levers being pulled, trying them is a great way to experiment and learn what works; different tricks are warranted for different segments; FUSC and FSD are of an early adopter and probably more well-off segment than those perusing inventory for discounts on the Y RWD.
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Folks, we're going way off topic here... let's keep it focused on options and the stock price movements, yes, price-cuts and all that have an impact on the stock price, but all the discussion on demand doesn't belong here, that's for the other thread
Pre-market looking strong, currently up $1.39 at $194.96. I was expecting a push down based on the Model Y price cuts/discounts but looks like technicals trumping fundamentals for the moment. However I do expect a conccerted push down early in the main trading.
Btw, I do track (and often trade) the end of after hours trade to premarket open bounce and it is quite pronounced. I need to update my spreadsheet but over the last few months of 2023, TSLA would bounce in pre-market 64% of the time. Overall the average move from A/H close to the high of the 1st 30 mins of pre-market trade was $1.80.
Btw, I do track (and often trade) the end of after hours trade to premarket open bounce and it is quite pronounced. I need to update my spreadsheet but over the last few months of 2023, TSLA would bounce in pre-market 64% of the time. Overall the average move from A/H close to the high of the 1st 30 mins of pre-market trade was $1.80.
Stupid question... if you're intending to be assigned on short puts, why would you waste money on a spread? Just sell CSP
SPY gives the most reliable income, but prems are pitifulI'm still curious about what your Excel backtested calculations are giving
SMCI/NVDA gives the best BPS income, don't IC it for now; those are my trades this week
TSLA is good to IC now
all these assume you respect the gammas and stay away from the %OTM ranges
NOT ADVICE
You can limit the downside. This is when a spread is used to limit risks instead of increasing leverage.
Don't NVDA BPS have more risk than BCS? NVDA is up a lot and it just hit another AH. It kind of reminds me of the Tesla run to $1200 and then the sudden crash to $900 IIRC. It is obviously easy to make money on BPS when a stock is going up but how long can it keep going? I have NVDA BCS $810/$840 for this Friday. I will wait to the middle of the week to add more. At $810 NVDA would have a $2T market cap. I find it funny that NVDA earnings were fueled in part because Tesla bought a bunch of GPU's from them.
There's only one Twitter and it's already been bought. NVDA shareholders are safe.
to save some margin Spread is $45,000 v CSP $277,000
Saving the margin for use in possible upward tick to sell BCS
risk is upside to 800 (follow price action, not "news")
edit: +38% in 5 mins and i'm out
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