Sell Cash Secured Puts for a SP you are happy to buy at. Worse case you pocket the premium.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
My history is easy, don’t repeat it.
bought shares before split
Sold puts on margin when SP rocketed up 10x around $400 thinking it would do to $1200 2 years out
Got margin called when SP did -78%
Sold all my shares and bought LEAPs at that moment when SP was $110.
Recovered maybe around 50%
Do not sell too many puts at any moment, the stock can plundge 80% anytime, if selon starts selling again, if Blackrock starts selling, if Ron Barron starts selling. Front sellers make the phenomenon worst and capitulation is an impressive thing to experiment.
Sell only Cash Secured Puts with money you actually have to buy the shares and you will keep adding extra along the road.
Don’t overleverage like the dumb generate I am thinking TSLa could never more than -50%
Well my premise was wrong, it can -78%.
My goal is to get back the 10 000 shares I once had, however I only have the 100 Calls for Jan2025 strike at 110
The really informative question/answer would be what were you doing/do/not do between
HERE
Sold puts on margin when SP rocketed up 10x around $400 thinking it would do to $1200 2 years out
And HERE
Got margin called when SP did -78%
Sold all my shares and bought LEAPs at that moment when SP was $110.
golden rules are:
First loss is best loss
during periods of great volatility, HAVE A HEDGE IN PLACE even if way out of the money.
truly curious
2022 was an expensive lesson for me that despite a bright future for tesla, during a risk off period my conviction doth destroy net worth. Compounded by not utilizing risk management and staying leveraged
It’s more based on the macros than anything else. Macros are at or near ATH’s. It’s natural that there’s going to be a correction and considering how things are playing out with inflation and macro economics, there is much more upside to come in 2024…but there will definitely be a correction before that rally to new ATH’s
Buy some far out LEAPS, to guarantee you the shares at a relative decent strike to price ratio with just a portion of your funds . If the stock drops, use the remainder funds to buy outright stock or more calls
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thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
No fear. There always a chance. Money is always there. Rushing it or thinking you missed the ride will do more harm then good.
just be aware, there are catalyst’s out there that could propel TSLA to act counter to macros.
Good example is FSD being released in China that could counter any macro weakness. The current dynamics make it extremely difficult to be make any clear assertion on what TSLA is specific is going to do. Could also be a scenario where TSLA gets caught in the macro pullback but reverse earlier/sooner than other stocks do
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Been there, done that. lost more money than i started with. don't over leverage, don't get greedy, don't get overconfident....none of the stock analysis that we are all doing now will save you from those 3 fundamental problems!
Can you elaborate on these two? Maybe point to a post elsewhere where you've already done that?
I don't see how FSD as we have it here in the US would trigger a Hertz style run. The Hertz run was triggered (my belief) by a widespread investing audience hearing that Tesla has a huge number of incremental orders than expected, thus demand was assured and supply constraint would continue. My own understanding, and I believe most of us in this forum, was that it just meant that the line of people waiting for their car to be built was longer, but it was still there. Tesla was still building out manufacturing capacity at warp speed.
For FSD v12 - clearly there's nothing magic about the # 12 - what incremental functionality do you expect from v12? Do you think that is the version where Tesla will claim level 3 and allow driver's to not pay attention to the road (I think that is level 3)? I see no way that v12 enables robo-taxi deployment soon after - are you thinking that v12 heralds the dawn of Tesla's robo-taxi business? THAT would trigger a Hertz style run if investors believed that there were enough regulators on board that it would actually happen. (My own belief - even when the software that -might- support robo-taxi type functionality, we'll need more than a year, and probably more than 5, of that software being used in the wild by people with the current restrictions in place, for a general purpose robo-taxi business generating non-trivial revenue to be started).
That's how I see things. Which emphatically does not make me right. I suspect you're using those 2 as short hand for something more detailed, and I'm really interested in learning about that.
What I've read--and it could be wrong--was that by Ver. 12 removing the "beta" designation allows Tesla to claim the money paid by customers for FSD over the years as income in that quarter, hence boosting EPS meaningfully. Dunno if this is true, but sharing in case it might be.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
This.
Is.
Not.
A.
Thing.
If Tesla felt they had SW capable of robotaxi today they could start picking up fares basically tomorrow in a bunch of US states.
There are exactly zero "regulators" preventing them from doing that in those states.
What is preventing Tesla from offering robotaxis is the fact they don't have hardware and software capable of safely being a robotaxi.
Not exactly.
The beta tag alone has literally nothing to do with any of it.
Did Tesla deliver the feature or not, vs does Tesla still owe the customer something, is what matters.
For pre 3/19 buyers they still owe them L4 (or arguably L5) and can't collect that money till they deliver that (which on the HW those folks have might be 'never'). Removing the word beta on L2 software doesn't change that.
For post 3/19 buyers there's nothing to really prevent them from recognizing it NOW other than the city streets code isn't the "default" FSD code, you still have to opt in rather than get it simply by being an FSD owner. Once they flip that switch they could recognize it immediately, regardless of what they call it.
(Many have suggested dialing back the promise of what FSD would offer you around 3/19 was specifically to limit Teslas liability if they couldn't deliver >L2- since L2 is all post 3/19 buyers are promised)
Beta, legally, is a meaningless word.
It's there to encourage drivers to be extra cautious but doesn't change anything to the accountants. Heck the auto wipers still say beta.
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Now THAT (removing the beta designation) is something that will get investors excited. More importantly I can readily see how that would expand the universe of people that want to own shares, and that are willing to pay a higher and higher price to do so.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
I mean, 12.1 is supposedly going to 15k cars and it's still labeled beta, so...yeah.
But again there's no actual meaning in "beta" here- not legally, not under SAE, not under...anything...
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