Nice play. There was enough of a risk of a positive surprise that I chose to play it safe. I've been on the other side of that before and it really sucks, and I'm still a true bull on TSLA at heart.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Nice play. There was enough of a risk of a positive surprise that I chose to play it safe. I've been on the other side of that before and it really sucks, and I'm still a true bull on TSLA at heart.
Boarding a 5 hour flight, who'd hold -p190 3/3 overnight, short leg of $10 bps ? Looking for time value now. Thinking to roll at debit to -177.5/+157.5 3/10 , $20 wide. Pricey below 190 but better than assignment.
EDIT: realized it's less to close. Now considering short leg of 20 wide at -p180/+160 bps for next week, .59 ... OR ... just close and sell a better position to recover the loss
EDIT: realized it's less to close. Now considering short leg of 20 wide at -p180/+160 bps for next week, .59 ... OR ... just close and sell a better position to recover the loss
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I still have 15x -p190 open for tomorrow, but CSP's, there's a stubborn $3 in them still that I'm reluctant to pay back, unless we get a big pop into close they're for sorting out tomorrow, good chance they expire yet, if they go ITM then next week's strikes will yield more premium too, should I decide to roll (= the most likely scenario)
And if we hang around 190 then looking at -c200's for next week
Still holding my 2x -p190 for tomorrow. I sold 200 shares in the 190s AH yesterday because I needed to raise cash but if the 190s exercise, I don't mind buying them back at a small profit. I can go into the weekend with no puts for the first time in a year and then I'll sell 200c for next week.
I just sold 03/03 $190 P's for $3.30! Wouldn't mind picking up the shares for buy writes anyway.
Also just opened more than a handful and less than a bunch of synthetics for next week - $190 P STO / BTO $190C - for a $0.30 credit each -
Just reading the tea leaves I think we close right over $195 tomorrow and I can close the 03/03 $190P's and the 03/10 $190 P's relatively cheap and have $190C's for free rolling into the weekend.
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Indeed, $3 for 1DTE ATM's is crazy good premium... I also think >195<200 is the likely target range for the manipulators tomorrow, but I guess will depend on how things may have rearranged themselves today
If the -p190's go dITM then I'll let them assign, if they're ATM, will buy them back, we will see...
gabeincal
Active Member
Rolled all my -23 x 3/17 135c’s to 4/21 135c’s @ $2.55 credit. Waiting for the dip that might never happen.
This is a wishful-thinking roll isn't it? If you think "the dip that might never happen", then shouldn't you be planning out a strategy for dealing with it?
Within the universe of possibilities, sure it's possible that TSLA could drop down to 135 between now and April, but if it does NOT, what will happen other than your position being deeper ITM? Wouldn't rolling it out and UP give you more breathing room, and at least gives you a higher strike price if it gets early exercised on you?
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Here is my "trading chart". What is interesting is the way TSLA didn't go up with Nasdaq after 1:30 PM (EST) or so. I can only imagine what would have happened if Nasdaq fell throughout the day.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
We have had a lot of discussions about why SP tends to land at max pain (or some other nearby round figure) in the main market thread (a few years back). I think the main reason for that is the delta hedging all market makers do. As traders closeout their positions on Friday - the delta hedging is reversed (or adjusted) which causes SP movement. Large Market Makers do not take positions and manage their risks through delta hedging using software - and if they did they will make huge losses once in a while which we'll hear about (like hedgies do).
Well, well, according to this article from Reuters today, we have a date for the reveal of the new cars Tesla will be building in Mexico: JUNE 2023 (in three months). That might be the new catalyst after we visit the 160-170s…
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www.reuters.com
“…the mayor of Santa Catarina in the state of Nuevo Leon, said in an interview that…Tesla will reveal what vehicles it will produce at the Nuevo Leon factory when it breaks ground, which it plans to do in three months.”
Site of Tesla Mexico factory near double size of Texas plant, local official says
Tesla Inc's planned factory in Mexico's northern border state of Nuevo Leon will be built on a site spanning several thousand acres, almost twice the size of its factory site in Texas, with construction slated to start in three months, a Mexican official said on Thursday.
www.reuters.com
“…the mayor of Santa Catarina in the state of Nuevo Leon, said in an interview that…Tesla will reveal what vehicles it will produce at the Nuevo Leon factory when it breaks ground, which it plans to do in three months.”
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Well, well, according to this article from Reuters today, we have a date for the reveal of the new cars Tesla will be building in Mexico: JUNE 2023 (in three months). That might be the new catalyst after we visit the 160-170s…
Site of Tesla Mexico factory near double size of Texas plant, local official says
Tesla Inc's planned factory in Mexico's northern border state of Nuevo Leon will be built on a site spanning several thousand acres, almost twice the size of its factory site in Texas, with construction slated to start in three months, a Mexican official said on Thursday.
“…the mayor of Santa Catarina in the state of Nuevo Leon, said in an interview that…Tesla will reveal what vehicles it will produce at the Nuevo Leon factory when it breaks ground, which it plans to do in three months.”
Apparently Tom Zhu also wants to break Giga Shanghai's groundbreaking->production record. June->February 2024 for production?
As short term trader, I dont see whats so excited about this. When Austin and Berlin went into production in May last year we were trading at 240+. A month later Elon called them “money furnaces” and we had weeks of FUD. 6 months later the stock was down to 120. Building a car factory into a recession isnt going to give Wall Street any butterfly.
As a TSLA holder, I know the company is going to be the biggest in the world and whatever the headwinds are, it will overcome it.
As a short term trader, these developments dont matter. They are noises at best and weights on gross margin at worst. Real movers are things that increase cash flow and profits right away. Anything that is “long term” and “visionary” can be used as dangling carrots to give whales exit liquidity.
We like to think that the market “doesnt get it.” If the market really doesnt get it, how do you explain TSLA going up 12x in 3 years? Sometimes, it is us who dont get the market. The things that matter to the market in the long run often are not the same things that matter in the short run. Relying on one thing while trying to make money off the other can be dangerous.
As a TSLA holder, I know the company is going to be the biggest in the world and whatever the headwinds are, it will overcome it.
As a short term trader, these developments dont matter. They are noises at best and weights on gross margin at worst. Real movers are things that increase cash flow and profits right away. Anything that is “long term” and “visionary” can be used as dangling carrots to give whales exit liquidity.
We like to think that the market “doesnt get it.” If the market really doesnt get it, how do you explain TSLA going up 12x in 3 years? Sometimes, it is us who dont get the market. The things that matter to the market in the long run often are not the same things that matter in the short run. Relying on one thing while trying to make money off the other can be dangerous.
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Here, hear! Thank you for keeping us on the straight and narrow ;-)
Any tips how you are positioning yourself with -CSP and -CC for the coming TSLA “winter”? I was thinking a ladder approach, each 30 days out, then I realized two weeks at a time might be the best/safest way to deal with it. We should really aggregate all the mistakes we (collectively) made in the past year and make sure not to repeat them, even do the opposite.
Good post and fully agree with your analysis but it is possible for them to run up the stock on any substantial news. Does the Hertz deal ring a bell? 100,000 orders when the company had a six month backlog.
As traders it is important to be nimble. I think option flow usually gives us strong clues about where the stock is headed in the short term. I did not see any big 1DTE or 0DTE bets to the downside. Of course that could change tomorrow as Friday is usually the best option to squeeze. Also the indices seem to be holding on for dear life. I’m expecting a volatile Friday!
During Winter, what matter most is keeping yourself and loved ones safe and sound: cash reserve, low margin usage, low expenses etc. Whatever mistakes we made during the good times, now is not the time to ponder the wouldas and couldas. Now is not the time to “make it back.” Bear market doesnt just go straight down. Bears can lose just as much money as bulls during a bear market. I know because I see it every day. Once we have ensure our survival through this dark time, we have to accept what we have right now is all we have to work with. It keeps us from taking unneccesary risks in order to get back to “the good old days.”
Then, we need to find systems and methods that we have successes with. Start small and slow. Fail small and often. Make those small losses back before betting larger.
Personally every day I try to answer these questions:
What are the important supports/resistance levels?
What is the large/medium/small degree wave count? Where are we aka Are we more likely to go up/down/sideway this day/week/month?
Is there a bullish / bearish divergence signal on the appropriate timeframe? If we drop 10% from high I’m not going to look at anything lower than 1h for signs of reversal.
How is the market going to try and trap me today?
If the trend is up LT and MT Im going to sell ATM puts aggressively. If it is up LT but down MT, Im going to try to find a ST bottom to sell OTM puts. If it is down LT I will not sell any puts. Bottoms can be called based on S/R, wave count and divergences.
Macro event timing is also a powerful tool. I dont know how CPI and FoMC in the week of 3/17 is going to go but I know the week before, 3/10, will be a reversal to the mean week. People will settle big bets before the week is over which means theres a limit to how low/high the SP can go. Since my downside target is 17x, Im betting its not gonna get and stay there by next Friday. On the upside, 210 is a fib level only reacheable while the broader market sentiment is bullish. Im betting its not gonna reach and stay above 210 by next Friday because the market is not bullish.
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The real engine of that gamma squeeze was a blockbuster Q3 ER. Already on that Friday we closed at ATH with call IV ramping up into the close. The Hertz news was just additional fuel to the fire.
What a paradox. @Yoona got pushed out from here by someone telling her to stop posting Twitter links and now we are posting Twitter links of her sharing her useful analysis on her trades. Hope she reaches thousands of followers some day!
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