Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[InTheShadows]

All this talk of "targeting" return rates worries me. By definition you're setting yourself up to be steamrolled when the outcome is somehow informing your decision making.

IMO the whole advantage we have here is our knowledge of Tesla and TSLA being far beyond nearly all analysts/hedgies. That's what dictates my return.

Logically wouldn't you trade in the range generally described as "safe" and then wait for opportune moments to trade in a more aggressive style that brings you 2-30% returns? That should be the sweet spot. Just like in poker, you MUST change gears strategically to beat be best players out there. Otherwise they'll use your rigidity and their resource advantage to wear you down over time.

I've sold nearly ITM BPS 7-14 DTE recently and felt perfectly safe because I "knew" these SP manipulations couldn't last in this 4Q earnings window. I've pocketed 15-30% premiums on $100-wide BPS because it's the right thing to do in this window. After we run up a bit, I'll probably just go back to netting 1% per week in "safe" mode.

Your goal should be to never have to do anything.

Just to be clear, I don’t target return rates. I use my trailing averages to estimate my future goals. It’s very dynamic. My future projections are calculated from my trailing 13 week average return rates.

I think “needing” to get a specific return per week/month/year will be setting ones self up for failure.

 

[InTheShadows]

For takeaway #3: How does everyone determine high win rates? High probability of profit (e.g. >90%) or are there some other combination of metrics one looks at? Still trying to figure out how to more methodically enter opportunistic trades that have higher probabilities of success that aren't based on my own personal view of what I believe will happen (i.e. the stock creeps higher through earnings, but volatility remains throughout the rest of the year given macro impact on the stock).

A general rule of thumb is an inverse relation to your profit. I found this when I was looking at how to calculate probabilities. So 2% profit should be around a 98% probability of profit.

 

[EVCollies]

BTO 1/14 1100 Put @13.93 with BTC at 50% profit, I can't imagine the MM will keep SP > 1100 all day?

Closed a little bit ago.
BTO 1/14 1080 Call @11.29 with BTC at 50% profit hoping for some more Brownian motion.

 

[ninpb]

Yep, the "update" might be a "bummer" and we'll need to wait longer for the future which could impact the stock negatively.

I have no open positions for that week currently.

I'm hoping for positive news surrounding Semi and 4680s at a minimum and anything else positive would be gravy.

I have open 2/18 BPSs 950/700 which are at 70% profit, I'll let those go until 2/17.

And bought $1000 strike calls for 2/18 as well. They are sitting at 45% currently, but will be watching those are we close in on earnings.

You have longer DTE than most people here. Is this an ER play or normal?

 

[jeewee3000]

Rolled the 1/14 -1080p/+990p to 1/21 -1100p/+950p @27.80. When SP got to $1080 just now.

Reasons:
-de-risks tomorrow;
-de-risks the spread slightly (break-even point for rolling profitably moves from 1035 to 1025)
-great return on capital for next week (18,5% minus the cost to close the spread next week)
-I personally expect next week to be a good week for TSLA stock, in anticipation of the ER.

 

[mickificki]

This thread isn't the same without @Lycanthrope. Someone nudge him awake please.

Earlier this morning opened 10 contracts 900/800 1/28 BPS. Now down roughly 25%.

 

[vikings123]

This thread isn't the same without @Lycanthrope. Someone nudge him awake please.

Earlier this morning opened 10 contracts 900/800 1/28 BPS. Now down roughly 25%.

Where did he go? It seems like his twitter account is deleted.

As for TSLA it seems macro related, volume both for Nasdaq and TSLA is above average. I guess the markets will continue to remain choppy. Not making any trades until tomorrow.

1055 is a big level, let's see if that holds.

 

[mickificki]

Where did he go? It seems like his twitter account is deleted.

As for TSLA it seems macro related, volume both for Nasdaq and TSLA is above average. I guess the markets will continue to remain choppy. Not making any trades until tomorrow.

1055 is a big level, let's see if that holds.

Gary Black seems to think there's a flight to "quality" stocks today.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1481662979322040325

 

[generalenthu]

Looks like we are trending towards another 30 million shares traded day. The volume this year has been incredible. Almost as much volume every day this year as on days Elon sold last year.

Hopefully this is all helpful in digesting the massive OI for next week. If thats the case, the week after or the earnings week should be quite bullish.

 

[tivoboy]

Rolled the 1/14 -1080p/+990p to 1/21 -1100p/+950p @27.80. When SP got to $1080 just now.

Reasons:
-de-risks tomorrow;
-de-risks the spread slightly (break-even point for rolling profitably moves from 1035 to 1025)
-great return on capital for next week (18,5% minus the cost to close the spread next week)
-I personally expect next week to be a good week for TSLA stock, in anticipation of the ER.

Ew, thats ballsy.. I expect to see increase in volatility next week (remember monday is a market holiday) and specifically for TSLA. Next weeks OP/EX is going to be very unpredictable. IHMO.

 

[OrthoSurg]

This thread isn't the same without @Lycanthrope. Someone nudge him awake please.

Earlier this morning opened 10 contracts 900/800 1/28 BPS. Now down roughly 25%.

Sold 10x -p840 21/1 when the stock was 1070. Used to see red when I try to time the dip dippity doo before the real dip

 

[OrthoSurg]

Gary Black seems to think there's a flight to "quality stocks" today.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1481662979322040325

I told my wife I was never on social media. I consider this place a safe haven of objective informations from anti-FUD analysts. I hope my iPhone classifies the screen time on this thread as Work time and not social media.

Hope @Lycanthrope is going well, he got quite leveraged at some point. When he sold 35x -p1135 in November and then the stock went from 1150 to 900, I had 5 similar contracts and we learned to swim underwater for 2 months together. I thought he was having fun when I was drowning!

 

[Discoducky]

You have longer DTE than most people here. Is this an ER play or normal?

Yep, and the IV was high at the time and we bounced off of support, seemed like a really safe play. But we've seen in the past that manipulation can go on a long time...

 

[Tempus]

I bit on the headfake this morning at 1070. Opened a set of 850-950 BPS for 1/21. At the end of the day they should be fine, but always annoying to see them go immediately into the red.

 

[adiggs]

I bit on the headfake this morning at 1070. Opened a set of 850-950 BPS for 1/21. At the end of the day they should be fine, but always annoying to see them go immediately into the red.

Yes it is

And at least in my experience its pretty much always what happens. Unless you can hit the peak or valley I figure this is what we'll see. The next day though...

 

[adiggs]

On OA spreads - a $1 wide spread in TSLA would have killed me many times in the last 6 months. I don't get that. Do they open a position based on their strategy and then put a GTC close order in immediately on the profit they set out? Set and forget?

Those $1 wide spreads are a function of that underlying share price plus that underlying IV. If an underlying is trading at $40 with a low IV, then $5 OTM might be a world away. $5 OTM on TSLA is really ATM. And $1 wide spreads aren't even available due to the share price being so high. Heck - some of our trades are picking from strikes that are $50 apart.

 

[corduroy]

STO some 780/-880s for 1/21/2021 on the dip. Just a small position to start, but I may add more tomorrow if we continue down.

 

[Tslynk67]

Yes, I'm fine, don't worry and reading the thread, when I get the chance

I'm super-busy at work, so no time to hang-pout here, sorry!

Before I nuked it, I posted on Twitter why I was deactivating the account and starting afresh, just needed to flush all the crap out, notably the booze photos as I'm trying really hard to give up

Macro is frightening me right now, with the FED mess, the RUS/UKR tensions, I don't know, be careful out there, especially those of you playing put spreads, the thought of those is quite terrifying for the moment

I'll be back

 

[InTheShadows]

This thread isn't the same without @Lycanthrope. Someone nudge him awake please.

Earlier this morning opened 10 contracts 900/800 1/28 BPS. Now down roughly 25%.

I had 70% of my GTC orders execute this am at market open. I redeployed around 10-10:30 for next week. Short legs 960-980 range. The 980’s are 300 wide. They are slightly red right now but I’m not sweating them at all. No way would I be sweating your spread even though it’s only 100 wide. I just wish the rest of my orders closed. They are grinding away slowly now for tomorrows exp. Some are 1060 short leg. Ill be watching the stock closely tomorrow.

 

[samppa]

rolled my -1100/+800 bps to 1/28. straight out to after earnings. Premiums were good, got about $40/share
Earnings will be stellar, so I decided to keep the strikes the same. For now.