Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[bonk3125]

1100/1150, 1110/1160, and 1105cc. I will be glued to the ticker, watching the battle for 1100 unfold today.

The battle is going against you.
Good luck, let us know how you roll them

1105cc rolled to 1175cc 11/26 for small credit.

1100/1150 and 1110/1160 BCS... hurts just typing it out lol. Waited too long, kept missing my opportunities to roll/close for less loss. End of the day, rolled 1/3 of each to 1110/1160 and 1135/1185 for even money as SP was running away from me. The remaining 2/3 of each position, I just took my lumps and closed for loss. I debated whether to roll them, but I am just not confident that SP will stay down (which is a good thing for the rest of my portfolio). I'm already mentally prepared to close next week's rolls for a loss as well. Decreasing my position size (# contracts) will help me sleep well at night next week though.

In the grand scheme of things, since I started this in August, I am still ahead of my goals. These past two weeks were just 2 steps back after many steps forward. The recurring theme for my trading, though, is that my skill in selecting correct BCS strikes is horrible. Even after a 200 point drop lol. I'll stick with BPS in my trading account for now. We're all TSLA bulls anyway, aren't we?

Have a great weekend all!

 

[bonk3125]

... Once again I really should just avoid bull call spreads.

We should form a support group.

 

[Tslynk67]

We should form a support group.

I thought we were?

 

[samppa]

We should form a support group.

I thought we were?

Here are the best group therapy sessions one can hope for.

 

[traxila]

Can we roll covered calls to infinity?
This AAPL stock is out of control.

Ya, think so. Rolled it to Dec 3 155. At least I got some dough lol.

Maybe not the best use of capital, but we could roll forever I guess.

Think AAPL will calm down at some point.

TSLA OTOH...

 

[BornToFly]

The House passed the EV tax credit. I think that is why we climbed today. Could see higher next week. The Jan 2024 CC I wanted to buy back are getting farther away from me....

 

[M3Rider]

The time since the Hertz news was a nightmare. Bps worked out good for me, but it seems I always picked the wrong time to buy/roll my CCs with SP always crashing after my purchase. Last week I rolled on Monday, not even knowing about the poll. Ugh. Was so sure we’d close at 1100 today due to MMs, so was shocked and watched in disbelief as price ran away from me… In the end paid 3x to buy CCs back compared to a.m.

I am down $150k cash since the Hertz news, but sold no shares. Still have 9ccs left 10/26 @1070, but I have to sell these anyway before EOY, so not stressed much about these. plus I want a long term rolling experience to see if I can catch up.
Probably sunk ~500k into saving CCs over time.

But finally feel a lot better. All these news of China production, potential split, FSD making tremendous progress were just killing me with my ITM CCs.

For 11/26 have
21x 1050 puts and 1 1100 put.
For 12/3 have
100x -950/850bps and 4x 1050 puts.

 

[generalenthu]

I have been getting a lot of use from the portfolio theta metric (At the top corner of my IBKR app) in terms of trying to figure when to roll or add to my (predominantly BPS) positions. If the decay is uniform you'd expect this to stay constant through the life of the option. But that rarely is the case, especially as the stock has been moving away from my short strikes. My daily theta is at about 40% of what it was 3 days ago, and that tells me I am not earning much on these.

Of course that needs to be balanced with the discipline to not sell BPS into a massive strength. It does look like Elon has not sold much in the last day or 2 at least per Form 4 disclosures (knowing he still has time to file those if he had sold, but he had been prompt in filing). But I think this will continue to be volatile until Elon is done selling 70-80% of his shares. Of course, contra opinions are welcome.

 

[traxila]

The House passed the EV tax credit. I think that is why we climbed today. Could see higher next week. The Jan 2024 CC I wanted to buy back are getting farther away from me....

This was fait accompli.

Question is the Senate, and that looks like rough going. Don’t even know if it will pass.

Think we climbed today cause TESLA!

 

[M3Rider]

Of course that needs to be balanced with the discipline to not sell BPS into a massive strength. It does look like Elon has not sold much in the last day or 2 at least per Form 4 disclosures (knowing he still has time to file those if he had sold, but he had been prompt in filing). But I think this will continue to be volatile until Elon is done selling 70-80% of his shares. Of course, contra opinions are welcome.

I have a feeling he won’t sell on the open market anymore. He flew last weekend to some banking location, some speculated he may have arranged a secondary offering.

I was somewhat expecting these news to drop this week after everything was official and done, but nothing so far.

Today definitely there was no selling from Elon, very low volume most of the day until the buying started, last two days is also likely there was no selling.

Unless he plans to resume next year after Q4 ER, it very much feels like he’s done for this year.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

I’ve sinned. You’re supposed to roll during the week of expiration, but when we were bumping against the ceiling at 1105 I felt we were about to break out. So I rolled my 20 -p1000 from 11/26 to 12/3 for $10.40. I feared I would be getting less premium for that same roll next week if the SP would take off. I’m glad I did. At the end of the day the premium for that roll was already down to $8.80.

My 15 calls 1250, 1350 and 1450 expired OTM today. Although call premiums for 11/26 have gone up during the last trading hours they’re not good enough yet to compensate for the risk, so I didn’t open any new positions in that direction. Calls for 12/3 are too dangerous, a lot can happen in two weeks. We may see a new ATH soon. Maybe 1500 to 1600 call premiums will get juicy enough then.

 

[OrthoSurg]

I’ve sinned. You’re supposed to roll during the week of expiration, but when we were bumping against the ceiling at 1105 I felt we were about to break out. So I rolled my 20 -p1000 from 11/26 to 12/3 for $10.40. I feared I would be getting less premium for that same roll next week if the SP would take off. I’m glad I did. At the end of the day the premium for that roll was already down to $8.80.

My 15 calls 1250, 1350 and 1450 expired OTM today. Although call premiums for 11/26 have gone up during the last trading hours they’re not good enough to compensate for the risk, so I didn’t open any new positions in that direction yet. Calls for 12/3 are too dangerous, a lot can happen in two weeks. We may see a new ATH soon. Maybe 1500 to 1600 call premiums will get juicy enough then.

Same thing here. I’m exploring the 2 weeks Puts playing field but still staying at the 1 week covered call twilight zone.

Here are the best group therapy sessions one can hope for.

my AAPL group session therapy really helped yesterday. I am again down $1000 on my trade but I still feel better that someone else shared my pain. Thanks guys.

 

[mickificki]

I’m sorry for possibly tainting this thread, but does anyone see the possibility of a stock split soon, as in 12/9?

Elon’s cryptic messages are all hinting at that. Yesterday I purchased some March 2022 900 calls, March 1100 calls, January 2022 1500 calls(probably not the smartest trade ), January 2024 1000 calls.

Please check out the numerology thread and decide for yourself.
Thread 'Numerology on Twitter'
Numerology on Twitter

 

[mongo]

Well this will be interesting. Had written 1140 puts that I wanted to be assigned. ITM at close, OTM AH...

I’m sorry for possibly tainting this thread, but does anyone see the possibility of a stock split soon, as in 12/9?

Elon’s cryptic messages are all hinting at that. Yesterday I purchased some March 2022 900 calls, March 1100 calls, January 2022 1500 calls(probably not the smartest trade ), January 2024 1000 calls.

Please check out the numerology thread and decide for yourself.
Thread 'Numerology on Twitter'
Numerology on Twitter

Tesla cannot split more than 1.9 for 1 without a shareholder vote to increase max shares.
The next step would be to announce such a vote at least 10 days ahead of time, have the vote, then the board can announce a split which was 10 days ahead of the date of record last time.

 

[bballshinobi]

Well this will be interesting. Had written 1140 puts that I wanted to be assigned. ITM at close, OTM AH...


Tesla cannot split more than 1.9 for 1 without a shareholder vote to increase max shares.
The next step would be to announce such a vote at least 10 days ahead of time, have the vote, then the board can announce a split which was 10 days ahead of the date of record last time.

If Tesla announces a vote, the stock will shoot up. It will definitely pass the vote so the rest is just formality. I am closing all my CCs on 12/8-12/9 lol

 

[bballshinobi]

I’m sorry for possibly tainting this thread, but does anyone see the possibility of a stock split soon, as in 12/9?

Elon’s cryptic messages are all hinting at that. Yesterday I purchased some March 2022 900 calls, March 1100 calls, January 2022 1500 calls(probably not the smartest trade ), January 2024 1000 calls.

Please check out the numerology thread and decide for yourself.
Thread 'Numerology on Twitter'
Numerology on Twitter

I am in the believer camp. Closing CCs and buying calls on 12/8 and 12/9 just in case

 

[MikeC]

I rolled my Dec-Jan CCs back down and in to this week, hoping to get rid of them with Elon selling. Did not expect him to stop selling so soon and now I have a much worse roll than if I had just kept the original position.

Rolling aggressively got me into the longer-dated CCs in the first place, but being passive with them this week was also the wrong play. I think I'm learning that you can't "learn" the correct single move based on past experience, anymore than you can learn what a coin flip will be based on past flips. Because the market will be different every time. We may be at risk of a more complex form of gambler's fallacy here.

But in the same way that scientific predictions can be made about large populations and not individuals, I think we can learn a best overall strategy -which for me is puts and put spreads. 100% of my headaches have been with CCs and BCS.

 

[M3Rider]

I am in the believer camp. Closing CCs and buying calls on 12/8 and 12/9 just in case

I am not a believer, but won’t sell CCs just in case. Aside from the stock split, there are just too many good news coming up; I’m still down from my Hertz experience, so not looking to dive into the next one right away.

FSD is the big one, but hard to tell when will it be priced in. If all beta testers start saying: “it’s perfect” a month from now, will the market still wait another 6-12 months for the official robotaxi launch?

We got a lot of portfolio managers driving Teslas these days, not just a handful of regular folks, and they will get enrolled into the Beta soon enough.

 

[juanmedina]

I rolled my Dec-Jan CCs back down and in to this week, hoping to get rid of them with Elon selling. Did not expect him to stop selling so soon and now I have a much worse roll than if I had just kept the original position.

Rolling aggressively got me into the longer-dated CCs in the first place, but being passive with them this week was also the wrong play. I think I'm learning that you can't "learn" the correct single move based on past experience, anymore than you can learn what a coin flip will be based on past flips. Because the market will be different every time. We may be at risk of a more complex form of gambler's fallacy here.

But in the same way that scientific predictions can be made about large populations and not individuals, I think we can learn a best overall strategy -which for me is puts and put spreads. 100% of my headaches have been with CCs and BCS.

I have some 4x 12/21 1170cc and 3x 12/23 1180cc and I thought about doing the same rolling them back and down but I didn't. I also though about taking a $14k loss and close them but I didn't and now to close them it will cost me $47k . Is impossible to know what is going to happen and I think maybe next time I find myself in this position I will roll half of the calls a month out and let half to roll weekly because if I would have done that my calls would had expired worthless already. For now I decided to seat and wait. I will not roll the covered calls even if they get ITM and I might start rolling them a week from their expiration.

For me my headaches came from BCS and I am not touching those anymore. I decided to limit a certain amount of money to BPS and the rest will go to naked or cash covered puts.

 

[JustMe]

I don't think I've ever day-traded options, until this week, until RIVN. It's been 3 days of loading up on ATM puts, watching it fall, then ringing the register within a few hours. It did a head-fake this afternoon that put a scare in to me, but still came through with a 10% fall from session highs.

If you really want to live on the edge, trade expiring at the money options in the last few minutes before they expire

I made $700 in one trade in ten seconds by buying and then selling 10x $1130c. There was clear and persistent buying volume going into the close so I took a chance. Of course if the sp suddenly dropped those calls could have gone to zero without even saying goodbye.

I got lucky just broke even on the day