Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Max Plaid]

I remember that - you shared your trade and I tried to follow, but the option price had already gone up a few cents and "was too high" by then.

It wasn’t a single trade, I took around $170k profit on the initial $1000 LEAPS (would have been $3.6million if I held those to expiry), then we got the C19 crash, I loaded LEAPS on the bottom, and 2x, then bought some further out, rolled them up, etc…

Crazy times

 

[Jim Holder]

Looking ahead the next few weeks:

Green bars: Bullish inclination
Red Bars: Bearish pressure

Gamma: If SP reaches tall bar it might hover below OR above (because it is a magnet), unless there is a tall wall or cluster somewhere else
Vanna: If SP reaches tall bar it might be "capped" at or below it, unless there is a cluster somewhere else.
Vanna can't tell direction, it only gives approximate range if market is not volatile. Since Vanna detects change in volatility, it is strongest on the last 2 weeks of OpEx (wild "vixpiration") and not as useful when market is calm or sideways.

 

[Jim Holder]

Here's next week in particular zoomed in.
More green than red. Less red in Delta than the past week.
Absent bad news and short attacks TSLA looks like it can make a run past $180

 

[Jim Holder]

Currently for 5/17:

 

[Max Plaid]

Is this official news or what?

Isn’t this the famous TA rise “because”…?

Surprised today as 170 - 5 looked a given

Could just be flushing out some puts at 175 before they let it fall back?

 

[Knightshade]

It isn't about paying him; that is inevitable and right. What is wrong is to front-run the judicial process and hide in Texas. I voted for transparency and accountability first and foremost.

Are you under the impression reincorporating in Texas would allow them to ignore the Delaware verdict? Because that is not the case.

Lol sorry man I don't mean to take this off thread but "hide in Texas"? Delaware "judicial process" literally voided shareholders rights. Come on man

TBC- the court did the opposite of that.

They ruled the shareholders rights were violated because the vote they participated in was not fully informed (and some other stuff was wrong with it, not sufficiently arms length, board not independent, etc).

Tesla is now asking the shareholders to reaffirm they meant their original vote now that they're more "informed" and would likely use that fact in their appeal of the case.


You might not agree with their findings of how informed the vote is or not, how independent the directors were or not, etc.... (and I think there's good arguments that'll show up about that on appeal)-- but once the court HAS opinions on those, that are the ones they ended up with, the final ruling is explicitly about PROTECTING shareholder rights based on those opinions of the court.

 

[Jim Holder]

Isn’t this the famous TA rise “because”…?

Surprised today as 170 - 5 looked a given

Could just be flushing out some puts at 175 before they let it fall back?

Possible! TSLA has a hard time holding any gains.

 

[thenewguy1979]

BTO 2x 185C exp 5/24 @ .85

 

[dl003]

Isn’t this the famous TA rise “because”…?

Surprised today as 170 - 5 looked a given

Could just be flushing out some puts at 175 before they let it fall back?

It's confirmed the drop from 180 - 171.4 was corrective. Therefore, best bears can hope for is some choppy trading here. If they break 171.4 by a tiny bit, that'll be a huge accomplishment.

Using last year rally as a roadmap

 

[thenewguy1979]

We broke out of upper bb @60m charts.

There's strength in the pump this time around.....
Macro in Red while TLSA is pumping.

Careful.

 

[Max Plaid]

Off topic, but though @Yoona might appreciate a photo of Wilma when she was a pup - and yes, she did win the weekly #FrunkPuppy!!

 

[dl003]

There's another path

This path is also bullish, even though it'll take longer to break out.
There's also a bearish path, which will be completely invalidated if we trade above 188. I don't give this bearish path any weight at all. However, to torment participants, I think 188 initially will reject the stock, but eventually, 1 of 2 things will happen:
a. We follow the path above
b. We retrace to low 180s before going up again

 

[strago13]

I did buy 245 calls for July 19th a few days ago based on some of the bullish sentiment the charts showed (@dl003 and @tivoboy). So far this looks like a great move, we will see in a few weeks.

 

[Blue horseshoe]

I did buy 245 calls for July 19th a few days ago based on some of the bullish sentiment the charts showed (@dl003 and @tivoboy). So far this looks like a great move, we will see in a few weeks.

Along those lines I followed @thenewguy1979 with some 5/31 +$185c that are up 45% so far today

 

[thenewguy1979]

Look like NVDA is following the thesis of deflating after ER before breaking 1000 in August.....losing strength.

Cannot broke upper BB on the daily.

 

[Jim Holder]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1791506404752191599

 

[Jim Holder]

Red lines=Sell orders (the redder the stronger)
Green orbs: Buying
Red orbs: Selling

 

[Max Plaid]

Look like NVDA is following the thesis of deflating after ER before breaking 1000 in August.....losing strength.

Cannot broke upper BB on the daily.

View attachment 1048090

I still have 5x -c800 + -p900 in play for next week, if it drops sub-900 things get interesting...

Otherwise, meh, probably just let the shares go and sell weekly -p900's until something changes

 

[Jim Holder]

 

[dl003]

Come to think of it.
If you don't think Elon will leave, no matter what
Then the reduced share count, even if temporary, may force a 10% + adjustment to the share price.
But, I'm not here to speculate on news. The stock just spiked, now we see if there's follow through in the form of a shallow retracement and final spike.

There's that retracement undergoing. From here, bulls want to spike it on Monday, before pulling back to this very same level for consolidation. If they can get it above 188, then the retracement level will be higher.

For now, watch 175.8. If we trade below 175.8, then it's going to be tricky. We'll be either headed down to 171.4, or 191.