Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Patrick66]

I thought people were complaining that Elon haven't been working at Tesla the last few months. Well...now he's working at Tesla. Canning people has always been his forte.

Doing the job means keeping the company running smoothly; I am not looking for a CEO that just comes in to shuffle the fires every few months.

His actions of recent weeks are likely warranted and I don't fault them without concrete information on why they were shortsighted. The general lack of oversight or transparency though is problem for me.

The full supercharger team being let go is odd, but their approach/pace seems odd to me. Service seems similar, where growth and streamlining is really needed.

But for the options game, it just adds more volatility. I have my plan WRT TSLA, and I hope the company sorts out its issues.

 

[Chenkers]

Elon's stock sales dropped the stock from 409 to 383 on Monday, and recovered to 391 on Tuesday. The stock would recover to 396 Jan 4th, 2 months later. You had plenty of time so don't be pawning off your lack of accountability to someone else due to greed...unless your retirement had to be 409 exactly. ...lol.

I'm much less flippant when I think back to Elon's 10% stock sale tweet and the impact of the sales that followed. If you had been selling a lot of weekly options during that time, like many of us, then you may have a different attitude to that period of history.

TSLA closed at $407 on Friday the 5th before Elon's 10% poll that weekend. Nothing much happened on Monday but then from Tuesday the shorts started front running Elon's sales taking the stock down to $344 by Friday the 12th of Nov21. A lot of damage ($M's) was done during those weeks as the stock dropped all the way down to $295. While it did recover to $400 after P&D on 3rd Jan22, it was just for a day, and you would have had to be quick/lucky to have rolled long enough and closed everything out as it quickly plummeted back down the folowing days to close at $342 on the Friday.

Yes greed and naivety were definately a huge factor, and I own my own. However the fact remains that if Elon had conducted himself in a more responsible manner then the lives of many (including the loss of one life from here) would be much much better off.

 

[Max Plaid]

I'm much less flippant when I think back to Elon's 10% stock sale tweet and the impact of the sales that followed. If you had been selling a lot of weekly options during that time, like many of us, then you may have a different attitude to that period of history.

TSLA closed at $407 on Friday the 5th before Elon's 10% poll that weekend. Nothing much happened on Monday but then from Tuesday the shorts started front running Elon's sales taking the stock down to $344 by Friday the 12th of Nov21. A lot of damage ($M's) was done during those weeks as the stock dropped all the way down to $295. While it did recover to $400 after P&D on 3rd Jan22, it was just for a day, and you would have had to be quick/lucky to have rolled long enough and closed everything out as it quickly plummeted back down the folowing days to close at $342 on the Friday.

Yes greed and naivety were definately a huge factor, and I own my own. However the fact remains that if Elon had conducted himself in a more responsible manner then the lives of many (including the loss of one life from here) would be much much better off.

Yes, I'm indebted to Eon for making me wealthier than I could have imagined, but in October 2021 when the SP was rising rapidly after the Hertz deal, all the TA was saying there was zero resistance up to $1400 - I set a target there to sell off everything, would have been about $6million. It consolidated around $1200 for a couple of days, then Elon started with his selling

I had a ton of LEAPS at the time and some puts, the daily volatility was wild and I really had no idea what I was doing back then, by December I had had enough and was getting spooked by the talk of macro crashing too and sold all my shares

TBH I still had enough to retire on at that moment, but I didn't have the experience to understand that, I think $4.3million was the cash I came out with, but the wife wanted an expensive house and this and that, so I kept working

Now the huge mistake I made was in the run-up to the second split when I went all-in at $300, expecting the stock to go back to ATH, again, big naiveté on my part, it scraped up to $315, then started declining, and shortly after that the Twitter debacle started, then last year I ended up selling the lot at $150 when some calls went ITM, then it shot back top to nearly $300 again

So yes, some poor choices I made, that's the problem with timing the market... and especially a problem with having a lot of capital in a stock of LEAPS IMO

The perfect scenario was that Elon didn't announce his selling up-front on Twitter, the stock went to $1400, I sold off for cash, then wrote 50c IC's for the rest of my life and live like a king

All this being said, thanks to the trading I've one over the years, I estimate I have 2x the amount, taking into account taxes and wash withdrawn, compared to if I'd just HODLed the 600 TSLA I bought up until mid 2019; Even now I can do 0.3% per week and match my day-job...

 

[dl003]

I love Elon but the guy was too thinskinned. What did that billions tax bill get us? he said the gov was too wasteful then turned around and gave them billions. had he sold to solve world hunger Id be fine with it. Had the corrupted Dems like Warren stopped harassing TSLA after that I would be fine with it. but it was all in vain. those billions bought him nothing while his followers got hammered.

 

[Singuy]

I love Elon but the guy was too thinskinned. What did that billions tax bill get us? he said the gov was too wasteful then turned around and gave them billions. had he sold to solve world hunger Id be fine with it. Had the corrupted Dems like Warren stopped harassing TSLA after that I would be fine with it. but it was all in vain. those billions bought him nothing while his followers got hammered.

In hindsight, the stock sales to pay taxes was he getting some good will from the Dems but secretly he wanted to buy Twitter, and have purchased 11% of the company with that money.

Also yes, his stock selling did create some volatility but in the long run, Tesla will still be exactly where it is because last time I checked, it wasn't his stock sales that caused Tesla's operating margin to be 5% today.

 

[Singuy]

Yes, I'm indebted to Eon for making me wealthier than I could have imagined, but in October 2021 when the SP was rising rapidly after the Hertz deal, all the TA was saying there was zero resistance up to $1400 - I set a target there to sell off everything, would have been about $6million. It consolidated around $1200 for a couple of days, then Elon started with his selling

I had a ton of LEAPS at the time and some puts, the daily volatility was wild and I really had no idea what I was doing back then, by December I had had enough and was getting spooked by the talk of macro crashing too and sold all my shares

TBH I still had enough to retire on at that moment, but I didn't have the experience to understand that, I think $4.3million was the cash I came out with, but the wife wanted an expensive house and this and that, so I kept working

Now the huge mistake I made was in the run-up to the second split when I went all-in at $300, expecting the stock to go back to ATH, again, big naiveté on my part, it scraped up to $315, then started declining, and shortly after that the Twitter debacle started, then last year I ended up selling the lot at $150 when some calls went ITM, then it shot back top to nearly $300 again

So yes, some poor choices I made, that's the problem with timing the market... and especially a problem with having a lot of capital in a stock of LEAPS IMO

The perfect scenario was that Elon didn't announce his selling up-front on Twitter, the stock went to $1400, I sold off for cash, then wrote 50c IC's for the rest of my life and live like a king

All this being said, thanks to the trading I've one over the years, I estimate I have 2x the amount, taking into account taxes and wash withdrawn, compared to if I'd just HODLed the 600 TSLA I bought up until mid 2019; Even now I can do 0.3% per week and match my day-job...

Best case would be Tesla solving fsd, inflation went negative causing fed to drop interest rate to zero, and sales went to 2.5M. Tesla stock will be at 600 and you wouldn't be here complaining about a stock sale that did little to Teslas fundamentals.

 

[dl003]

In hindsight, the stock sales to pay taxes was he getting some good will from the Dems but secretly he wanted to buy Twitter, and have purchased 11% of the company with that money.

Also yes, his stock selling did create some volatility but in the long run, Tesla will still be exactly where it is because last time I checked, it wasn't his stock sales that caused Tesla's operating margin to be 5% today.

Sorry but I dont buy this. Its the equivalence of "everybody dies at the end so why does it matter how they live?"

Gross margin didnt go from 30% to 18% overnight. That took 2 years to play out. In a normal stock, investors would have the chance to digest the step changes in fundamentals and make the decision to buy, hold or sell. But Elon took that away from us by throwing us on a roller coaster of his own making.

Buying TWTR wasnt 5D chest. He said a deep recession was coming, then priced TWTR at 44B. He then realized it was FUBAR and tried to get out of it but got roped back in.

 

[Tachyon]

I love Elon but the guy was too thinskinned. What did that billions tax bill get us? he said the gov was too wasteful then turned around and gave them billions. had he sold to solve world hunger Id be fine with it. Had the corrupted Dems like Warren stopped harassing TSLA after that I would be fine with it. but it was all in vain. those billions bought him nothing while his followers got hammered.

That adds credence to the notion that Elon is the biggest baddest Tesla bear out there . He is his own and our worst enemy .

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Or, more important, I like what Mark Twain said many, many years ago...
“Never argue with an idiot. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience”.

Whether people have good or bad opinions, or are thought of as trolls because of their negativity, there is always that someone that thinks they need to stand up and make sarcastic and downgrading remarks to every single comment they deem Offensive or wrong to them. There are some, like @Knightshade who have thoughtful and fact based responses who are just trying to keep people honest with facts, and others that just feel the need to try and have a verbal fight. This entire forum of many threads has an ignore button, just use it if you don’t like what they have to say, or, don’t say anything and move on. Don’t think you (the royal you) needs to defend every single comment.
There are two other sayings/quotes that I Like “if you have nothing nice to say, say nothing at all”. This quote is from Charles Caleb Colton. And, finally,
“It's better to keep your mouth shut and appear stupid than open it and remove all doubt” from Mark Twain.

For opinions, sure. But for claims of "facts", this laissez-faire attitude is how falsehoods are spread. Leaving the ignorant (not claiming anyone is ignorant, only a generality here) alone simply allows them to propagate their ignorance, because they're louder.

And then claims based on "facts" fall into this gray area. But isn't this the basis of the science - publicly make a claim and depend on your peers to challenge the claim and make corrections?

So, I disagree. If you think the other person is only trolling, then sure ignore them, but honestly ignorant claims should be discussed and corrected.

 

[EVNow]

I thought people were complaining that Elon haven't been working at Tesla the last few months. Well...now he's working at Tesla. Canning people has always been his forte.

Seriously though, layoffs have always been a way to bring value to shareholders as most appreciate a lean running company. You can have the opposite problem like Lucid, who actually needed a twitter size 80% layoff like a year ago given the amounts of money they burn. Now that company has about zero chance of surviving on it's own.

Working <> making stupid, arbitrary decisions.

Oh yes, let’s fire everyone because once FSD is ready and Optimus too, you don’t need no people - and give Elon $50billion more.

 

[Max Plaid]

Best case would be Tesla solving fsd, inflation went negative causing fed to drop interest rate to zero, and sales went to 2.5M. Tesla stock will be at 600 and you wouldn't be here complaining about a stock sale that did little to Teslas fundamentals.

It was the start of Elon going off the rails and has been downhill since then, simple as that

I'd be in much better position if I hadn't had been blinded by my extreme bullishness, going all-in at 300 in August 2022 was particularly dumb

Now I have other goals, but I'm still lumbered with underwater LEAPS that I need to play out of over time

My own decisions, I know, I agree, but Musk's antics have contributed greatly to the decline in TSLA

 

[dl003]

Best case would be Tesla solving fsd, inflation went negative causing fed to drop interest rate to zero, and sales went to 2.5M. Tesla stock will be at 600 and you wouldn't be here complaining about a stock sale that did little to Teslas fundamentals.

14 years ago I did something extremely stupid and went bankrupt because of it. I then built myself back up and now have more money than I ever had. However, do I still think about it every other day, about what an idiot I was? 100%.

If I am that hard on myself, do you think I will change my opinion on what Elon did in 2021 and 2022 just because TSLA will go to 600? Not a chance.

 

[Singuy]

It was the start of Elon going off the rails and has been downhill since then, simple as that

I'd be in much better position if I hadn't had been blinded by my extreme bullishness, going all-in at 200 in August 2022 was particularly dumb

Now I have other goals, but I'm still lumbered with underwater LEAPS that I need to play out of over time

My own decisions, I know, I agree, but Musk's antics have contributed greatly to the decline in TSLA

You can argue that Elon has became political since 2020, and you went all in 2 years later? Maybe you enjoyed Elon "going down hill".

 

[EVNow]

You can argue that Elon has became political since 2020, and you went all in 2 years later? Maybe you enjoyed Elon "going down hill".

We know Elon has always been somewhat erratic. I've argued in the past we need to take him as a whole package - we don't get to choose only Dr Jeckyl.

But something snapped around Covid and he started going down rabbit holes and ended up offering to buy the Birdp**p website. Then he realized it was a mistake (I think in terms of price since the whole market went south after that offer date) and tried to backout, but couldn't. Sale of TSLA to pay for that Birdp**p cost all of us dearly.

While we all have to manage risks, that was truly a black swan event. On Elon's part an unforced error. Just like firing the entire Supercharger team - when for years we have all talked about the network as Tesla's moat in US.

 

[Singuy]

We know Elon has always been somewhat erratic. I've argued in the past we need to take him as a whole package - we don't get to choose only Dr Jeckyl.

But something snapped around Covid and he started going down rabbit holes and ended up offering to buy the Birdp**p website. Then he realized it was a mistake (I think in terms of price since the whole market went south after that offer date) and tried to backout, but couldn't. Sale of TSLA to pay for that Birdp**p cost all of us dearly.

While we all have to manage risks, that was truly a black swan event. On Elon's part an unforced error. Just like firing the entire Supercharger team - when for years we have all talked about the network as Tesla's moat in US.

Tsla swang all the past 260s as of a few months ago, putting MaxPlaid in the green. This was a year post stock sales. I don't know why he is complaining right now

 

[Tachyon]

Tsla swang all the past 260s as of a few months ago, putting MaxPlaid in the green. This was a year post stock sales. I don't know why he is complaining right now

More than complaining , I see his posts as reminiscing what many of us went thru during that period . Many of us are ardent supporters of Tesla the company and have been and continue to be bullish on TSLA. We have together endured many FUD attacks and negative Nancy stories in the media for as long as I can remember . We have been ridiculed for drinking the Tesla koolaid when TSLA was down in the trenches and not the popular kid . We have preached the gospel of EVs to friends and strangers alike . After going thru all this , it’s natural to feel despondent when a torrent of friendly fire nearly took us all down . Just trying to remember the past , so we don’t end up repeating the mistakes . Infact during this latest elevator down to 139, most were well prepared and hedged. I personally continue to be extremely
Bullish on Tesla , TSLA and Elon but will continue to actively pursue emerging opportunities in other companies . Used to be all in 100% TSLA, now it’s just 99% of holdings .

 

[OrthoSurg]

That adds credence to the notion that Elon is the biggest baddest Tesla bear out there . He is his own and our worst enemy .

Greatest engineer but worst PR/investor at the same time

 

[Singuy]

More than complaining , I see his posts as reminiscing what many of us went thru during that period . Many of us are ardent supporters of Tesla the company and have been and continue to be bullish on TSLA. We have together endured many FUD attacks and negative Nancy stories in the media for as long as I can remember . We have been ridiculed for drinking the Tesla koolaid when TSLA was down in the trenches and not the popular kid . We have preached the gospel of EVs to friends and strangers alike . After going thru all this , it’s natural to feel despondent when a torrent of friendly fire nearly took us all down . Just trying to remember the past , so we don’t end up repeating the mistakes . Infact during this latest elevator down to 139, most were well prepared and hedged. I personally continue to be extremely
Bullish on Tesla , TSLA and Elon but will continue to actively pursue emerging opportunities in other companies . Used to be all in 100% TSLA, now it’s just 99% of holdings .

Stock swings up, stock swings down. This is Tesla where sentiment and technical are not for the faint of heart. This is why I don't FOMO when things are good and don't go full on bear mode when things are bad. This is how Tesla will F you up. I have many friends who wouldn't touch Tesla with a 10ft pole because they were burned so hard.

I made my buy in and was happy with my number of shares in 2019. I haven't bought a single share since the meteoric rise and gigantic "friendly fire" fall. My cost basis haven't moved since 16 bucks. I know objectively speaking that Tsla is worth over 1T if their growth and margins continue, however it wasn't rocket science to see fundamentals deteriorating when Musk have been crying about interest rates and him literally telling you to be prepare for a storm.

The fact is people has zero clue where Tesla should be valued at. It can go to 1T if Elon buys 100M of tesla shares on Monday without any fundamental changes and then drop right back down to 500M after 2 weeks of bad news(or Elon on twitter saying things you don't like..pick your correlation). Did his stock sales deflated unreasonable momentum? Absolutely.....but would the stock eventually crash back down if our operating margins continue to decrease? They say in the long run it's a weighting machine....So if you wanted to retire at a specific number, go ahead and retire. Don't be blaming Elon as he as of today given people an opportunity to 10x+ their money since 2019 destorying the S&P...don't be crying cause it should have 20x if he wasn't so crazy...or I bought at a high because...FOMO.

 

[Singuy]

That adds credence to the notion that Elon is the biggest baddest Tesla bear out there . He is his own and our worst enemy .

Yeah, he thinks Tesla is worth Zero without FSD. He is telegraphing to you that if he didn't direct his team to work on FSD/AI/Robotics, Tesla is a 10 PE company like the rest. He also knows that there's a good portion of current valuation hinges on FSD/AI/Robotics and can disappear if he fails. There's a reason why it's TslaQ's wet dream to get FSD recalled and banned.

There was a time when we all thought he was crazy because the car business exceeded typical auto company metrics. But just he as has predicted, current auto business metrics are coming inline with industry average, reverting back to the mean. I honestly don't know how many ways he need to warn people against FOMOing into Tesla. How many "stock price is too high" comments should he televise. And if you listen to his bullish statement, it's aways a far into the future valuation. Think people are faulting him for not pumping the stock more or what?

 

[mongo]

I love Elon but the guy was too thinskinned. What did that billions tax bill get us? he said the gov was too wasteful then turned around and gave them billions. had he sold to solve world hunger Id be fine with it. Had the corrupted Dems like Warren stopped harassing TSLA after that I would be fine with it. but it was all in vain. those billions bought him nothing while his followers got hammered.

Originally, he had to sell to cover the basis and pay taxes due to exercising his 2012 CEO compensation package.
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