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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

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That is, quite frankly EXACTLY what it is… the derivatives market which is many many multiples of the underlying equity valuation is totally pulling things up and down. At least and especially in highly traded derivative stocks like TSLA, NVDA, AAPL - historically at least, and on and on.

You should read the white paper on this from I think Jan 2020? When it became clear that Softank was the “Nasdaq Whale” that was totally manipulating the tech equity markets in the 2nd half of 2019. They put about 4B to work in derivatives mostly, and bought underlying and made I think 20B?

Starting about that time, Tsla became a beloved target for this type of manipulation and it has only recently slowed down a bit.
Yes, SoftBank. Perhaps at multiples of underlying equity, it’s no longer the tail.
 
Looks like chips took the hit today, the rest was broadly "ok", what're the odds of a green reversal on those come Monday? I'd say likely, but this is based on noting more than a feeling in my "nether regions"

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Looks like chips took the hit today, the rest was broadly "ok", what're the odds of a green reversal on those come Monday? I'd say likely, but this is based on noting more than a feeling in my "nether regions"

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Positive is/was $VIX moved off the early high and ended relatively low, so the heat came off quite significantly.. had we ended high or higher than the intraday, I’d be concerned.
 
I thought I was being so skilled, constantly adjusting my Iron Condor without a debit. The market looked so strong at the open and I thought I was perfectly centered after a 4% rip. In the end I'm not sure how much I lost after all the credits. Probably $800k. If I had done nothing everything would have expired OTM.

I'm crushed.
Sorry to hear. I’d suggest looking into your strategy/approach at some point from a risk:reward perspective. We were in a Euphoric mood and unfortunately you got caught in the dump.

I will tell you a short story, there was a day last month where I traded so badly that I gave away a full week’s of profits. Went for a walk with my wife and told her what happened. It was a tough conversation but she understood and I’m glad we talked. It made a me a better trader and I felt better.

So yeah talk to your loved ones if you are feeling down. Take a break and don’t worry about trading for a while. Whatever it is don’t try to get into a mindset where you feel like you need to recover your losses. That will just make things worse.

Please let me know if I can help in anyway.
 
Stackable discounts piling up to help shore-up Q1 (and help us):

I trust @dl003 ’s analysis but even before this new discount I did not like the price action. I don’t know anything about EWT and mostly trade the hourly chart. I rarely have any open option positions at the end of the day. Here is my take:

After being red for so many days all we could muster was a DCB to 183 so minus a major catalyst I’m bearish. We also closed at the lows of the day. Maybe this is a bear trap but just not seeing it that way.
 
What we do is addicting. Selling options looks like easy money until it doesn't.

Sometimes this thread feels like a waste of time in the sense of how many people are really better off because selling options? There has been many accounts that have been completely wrecked through the years. I do it for a little income here and there but I don't think it will be life changing like the options that I bought in 2021-2020.

@BornToFly I am sorry about what happened today. Maybe let your account recover through share appreciation. With Tesla if all the stars align and margins get better, FSD and energy growth, there is no reason why we cannot hit a $2T market cap like Nvidia. That is a 4x gain from here and with shares and some well timed bought calls we can really kill it. It will take some time.
 
I can't see how to do it without taking on more risk. In other words, to make $5 of the $25 back, I would need to risk another 900k, right?
I'm not seeing any rolls that keep me in the game without costing more money.
no, i meant the first priority is fixing the problem and paying for it, THEN figure out how to recover the cost later

if you try to fix both in one trade, it's a lot of risk

for ex, spend 10 for roll or flip-split or flip-roll or switch to csp etc, whatever it takes to OTM it

then, have a plan on how to pay for it (ie 20 weeks of 0.50)

after 20 weeks, you'll have net income of 0 but at least the bleeding has stopped

sry, just trying to help 😥 , everyone is brainstorming until something sticks
 
A few considerations for the bullish divergence indicating a possible stall in falling further, though I may be TOTALLY wrong and showing my ignorance about how these things work:
1) Q1 Energy might balance any shortfall in auto
2) Auto might not be as bad as predicted.
3) The bad news is priced in already
4) None (or only some) of the above, and it's just SP is already down deeply from $235-$175, perhaps running out of sellers.
5) Other natural/neuro forces are at play keeping price where it is (i.e. EW end of full correction; not too expensive, not too cheap).
or... just the good old churn
It's always the same.
299 -> 212. Retails piled on the short train. Now let's pump it back up.
212 -> 242. Big scary triple top. Retails piled on the short train again. Out came Adam Jonas with his 400 target.
242 -> 279. Institutions got their exit liquidity
Rinse and repeat till 194 where stupid retail shorts piled on again
Now they're being squeezed out for what? Exit liquidity.
The goal is to make sure there are the least number of people who can benefit from every major move, be it up or down.
My job is to tell when these fleecing operations begin and end.
One of these days, it's not gonna be a head fake anymore, either up or down. As of this moment, I'm feeling the chart is telling me it's time for retail shorts to feel the burn.
 
Very sorry to hear BTF's situation. Selling options can be an unforgiving affair. Limited gains for max losses and you can get pulled-in based on time, volatility, pricing, thinking you have an edge/know something, and margin. I traded options exclusively for a few years on a slew of high liquid stocks. No margin calls, no hero stuff, and even then I didn't keep up with the SPY. Today I only use options to hedge and my vacations and tax preparations are much less stressful.
 
I will tell you a short story, there was a day last month where I traded so badly that I gave away a full week’s of profits. Went for a walk with my wife and told her what happened. It was a tough conversation but she understood and I’m glad we talked. It made a me a better trader and I felt better.

So yeah talk to your loved ones if you are feeling down. Take a break and don’t worry about trading for a while. Whatever it is don’t try to get into a mindset where you feel like you need to recover your losses. That will just make things worse.

Please let me know if I can help in anyway.
I appreciate the sentiment, but I just lost two years of profits on that 10% intraday drop.
 
I appreciate the sentiment, but I just lost two years of profits on that 10% intraday drop.
depends on how good you are at dealing with negative emotion and how long this is going to weigh on your well being, holding it in might have a devastating effect on your marriage. It takes 2 happy people in a marriage. If you want to keep your head straight in this game, you need to lighten up all the emotional burdens.
 
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This was my post at 12:08 PM today
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And this here is my post after an hour of observing what looked like weak PA to end the week on
1709955822506.png

FYI, this is not a "room." This is pixels on my screen. A room has sounds, emotions, atmosphere, things that I can feel. As if I could have magically sensed someone posting a huge loss in the one hour between my posts, someone had the balls to tell me to "read the room" and that I was "kicking a man while he's down." The hell are you people thinking? And some people disagreed with a post saying that they were certain I was not targeting anyone. Have the decency to tell it to my face why you disagreed.
No need to reply or defend.
You don't get to say this stupid *sugar* to my face and walk away.

I'm one of the few who have repeatedly warned against the risk of leveraging with spreads and getting carried away by the huge returns on those high IV stocks. I KNEW something like this would happen and it would end in tears. These social justice warriors who disagreed with my posts, what have they done to prevent it? A big fat NOTHING.

It has nice premium because the risk associated warrants it. If you dont see the risk, you're just not looking hard enough.
Yeah, let's.
 
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I appreciate the sentiment, but I just lost two years of profits on that 10% intraday drop.

Sorry about what happen BornToFly. Just let it all out. We here support you.

The dog in 2023 lost 1/3 of his income from work doing straight puts and longs. Was a big dumbo learning lesson.

Lately we expanded to discuss NVDA and SMCI but in reality AI was foreign word to us months ago. Dumb Dog like me are just guessing on the direction. Cheer up.