Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[khill]

Odd price action given that multiple countries are falling over themselves to land a Tesla factory and their so-called competitors are own strike

I can only put it down to this China meeting causing uncertainly

Anyway, for my side, I BTO 100x 11/17 +p200's @$2.3 and then STO 100x 9/22 -p255's @$1.65 to recuperate some of the premium, small risk in the as there's 8x expiries to roll them down if needed, hopefully these expire and I do something similar next week, then the puts are for free after that

Of course the only issue with writing 100x $55 wide put spread is that it eats up $550k cash margin...

Edit: and I closed-out 20x -c270 & 20x -c280's this week for 65% profits, I'll take that... now need to recover to get rid of the 20x -p270

https://archive.ph/2023.09.18-114530/https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/18/goldman-sachs-analyst-mark-delaney-lowers-earnings-forecast-on-tesla.html

 

[Max Plaid]

https://archive.ph/2023.09.18-114530/https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/18/goldman-sachs-analyst-mark-delaney-lowers-earnings-forecast-on-tesla.html

10cents EPS hit for the whole year, that was definitely worth all the trouble to write and publish a note about, eh?

"Analyst Mark Delaney now forecasts $2.90 and $$4.15 per share the remainder of 2023 and into 2024, down from $3 and $4.25, respectively."

 

[tivoboy]

10cents EPS hit for the whole year, that was definitely worth all the trouble to write and publish a note about, eh?

"Analyst Mark Delaney now forecasts $2.90 and $$4.15 per share the remainder of 2023 and into 2024, down from $3 and $4.25, respectively."

Ouch, $2.90, I wasn’t that low for Q3…TWT.

Anyone have a link to all overall estimates?

 

[Cherry Wine]

Odd price action given that multiple countries are falling over themselves to land a Tesla factory and their so-called competitors are own strike

I can only put it down to this China meeting causing uncertainly

Anyway, for my side, I BTO 100x 11/17 +p200's @$2.3 and then STO 100x 9/22 -p255's @$1.65 to recuperate some of the premium, small risk in the as there's 8x expiries to roll them down if needed, hopefully these expire and I do something similar next week, then the puts are for free after that

Of course the only issue with writing 100x $55 wide put spread is that it eats up $550k cash margin...

Edit: and I closed-out 20x -c270 & 20x -c280's this week for 65% profits, I'll take that... now need to recover to get rid of the 20x -p270

I like your thinking on the 11/17 p$200s...I rolled to that position from 10/27 +p$200s this morning also for $1.10 per share, funded in part by the selling (to close) of a 9/22 +p$255 position that I opened on Friday. I will look for tactical opportunities to write puts against the 11/17 +p$200s, but very conservatively.

I also opened up a 9/22 -c$290 position this morning. Would be more than happy for it to go ITM.

 

[Jim Holder]

I like your thinking on the 11/17 p$200s...I rolled to that position from 10/27 +p$200s this morning also for $1.10 per share, funded in part by the selling (to close) of a 9/22 +p$255 position that I opened on Friday. I will look for tactical opportunities to write puts against the 11/17 +p$200s, but very conservatively.

I also opened up a 9/22 -c$290 position this morning. Would be more than happy for it to go ITM.

I took a look at +P$200 11/17/23, seems theta eats it up quite quickly:

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Odd price action given that multiple countries are falling over themselves to land a Tesla factory and their so-called competitors are own strike

I can only put it down to this China meeting causing uncertainly

Anyway, for my side, I BTO 100x 11/17 +p200's @$2.3 and then STO 100x 9/22 -p255's @$1.65 to recuperate some of the premium, small risk in the as there's 8x expiries to roll them down if needed, hopefully these expire and I do something similar next week, then the puts are for free after that

Of course the only issue with writing 100x $55 wide put spread is that it eats up $550k cash margin...

Edit: and I closed-out 20x -c270 & 20x -c280's this week for 65% profits, I'll take that... now need to recover to get rid of the 20x -p270

Wasn't the whole market down a bit this morning? TSLA seemed to be following the general malaise of uncertainty as everything seems to be fluctuating around the current low level.

 

[Max Plaid]

I took a look at +P$200 11/17/23, seems theta eats it up quite quickly:

View attachment 974995

Yeah, it's purely a hedge for the P&D and earnings, which is why I bought mid November, plenty of time cover a knee-jerk reaction

And in the meantime, by selling a few weeklies I can recuperate the initial premium and then that insurance is free after that

 

[Jim Holder]

sure, but I'm not betting on the last mile.

Could it be we saw the highs already @$278 and walk down from here?

 

[dl003]

Could it be we saw the highs already @$278 and walk down from here?

Flow today suggests this is the case.

EDIT: 278 high yes. Walk down from here - no.

 

[Jim Holder]

Flow today suggests this is the case.

EDIT: 278 high yes. Walk down from here - no.

This means time to sell some 9/22 or 9/29 -C (280 even)?
Or some -C300 for 10/20/23?

 

[dl003]

This means time to sell some 12/22 12/29 -C (280 even) or wait still?

its ok to sell 280 at 265 but I'd take care to close some at 262. The stock is slowing down the descend as it approaches the bottom trend line. Technically not a good area to go heavy on shorting.

 

[Jim Holder]

its ok to sell 280 at 265 but I'd take care to close some at 262. The stock is slowing down the descend as it approaches the bottom trend line. Technically not a good area to go heavy on shorting.

View attachment 975014

Thanks. So it'll likely hover 260-275 and then flush deeper after P&D release (10/2)?

 

[dl003]

10cents EPS hit for the whole year, that was definitely worth all the trouble to write and publish a note about, eh?

"Analyst Mark Delaney now forecasts $2.90 and $$4.15 per share the remainder of 2023 and into 2024, down from $3 and $4.25, respectively."

It's all a sham. Remember when we pull back from 277 to 240 late June before P&D? Remember who downgraded TSLA that day? Yes, Marky Mark Delaney. They're basically telling clients when to buy and when to sell. Not based on any fundamental reason, but some whisper number churned out by the algo.

 

[dl003]

Thanks. So it'll likely hover 260-275 and then flush deeper after P&D release (10/2)?

There's no guarantee it will flush after P&D.

 

[Jim Holder]

There's no guarantee it will flush after P&D.

Okay thanks. I gather from your posts that you plan to be flat by 9/29 and then see from there.
Would you mind sharing how you're playing the recent softness?

 

[tivoboy]

Thanks. So it'll likely hover 260-275 and then flush deeper after P&D release (10/2)?

Things will probably move BEFORE that

 

[Max Plaid]

It's all a sham. Remember when we pull back from 277 to 240 late June before P&D? Remember who downgraded TSLA that day? Yes, Marky Mark Delaney. They're basically telling clients when to buy and when to sell.

Agreed, just like Jonas was a buy signal...

 

[Jim Holder]

Things will probably move BEFORE that

What are you seeing for the move?

 

[dl003]

Okay thanks. I gather from your posts that you plan to be flat by 9/29 and then see from there.
Would you mind sharing how you're playing the recent softness?

I closed -290C exp this week and opend -290C exp next week.

Gonna wait for 255 to sell some puts.

 

[Jim Holder]

I closed -290C exp this week and opend -290C exp next week.

Gonna wait for 255 to sell some puts.

Thanks. I went flat on my short calls this morning at $263.80 area and then STO a few 9/29 -C292.50 for $1.75 a bit later at a push as a starter position, intending to add more if we push higher. Looks like we won’t so far.

When do you think we’ll see $255?