Here are again all the times TSLA got rejected by the hourly 200 EMA and retraced at least 50%. Wouldn't you say these lows were pretty scary, end-of-the-world type in their own right? I was there so I know. Wouldn't you think to yourself "hmmm, if we bounce from this abyss, we'll never see these prices again" just like you're thinking now? You would and you would be wrong every time.
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Here are 2 more: the June 2019 low and COVID crash low
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So it's not my opinion that once we've topped out initially, the stock will retrace at least 50%. If it tops out at 200, it will go back to at least 183. There's no upward pressure afterward to worry about until the retracement is complete. At 183 with 2-3 DTE, you can close your 195C's for pennies.
In all of these examples, only once did TSLA not get rejected by the hourly 200 EMA and that's after the June 2019 low but it still retraced 50% from the top. Probabilities say 200 as the top and 183 as minimum retracement is a safe bet.
The good thing about this rising wedge is the slope is extremely steep. For TSLA to stay within it today, we're talking about another $10 day so we should know pretty quickly if it's set up to do something like that. I'll try and keep everyone updated. I've never seen a true break upward from a rising wedge.
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