SAE vs CHAdeMO

[scottf200]

One of those future Frankenplug providers, 350green, just got a visit from the FBI. Operations in all 19 markets halted. Cutting deals to pay folks at 50 cents on the dollar of what the owe.

I'm not sure how this will play out, but I'm going out on a limb and saying neither 350green, nor Blink, will be providing Frankenplugs anytime soon. If Blink did do Frankenplugs with a government handout before they go BK, the machines would likely be the same grossly poor quality as the CHAdeMO units they install.

That leaves NRG, which I'm confident will provide the 200 units in 4 years in one state; California. Hey, what could go wrong with a state agreement to settle electric disputes?

350Green put in CHAdeMO in some Chicagoland locations.

From my original post this morning and then one at 7pm
http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?p=282191#p282191

For 350Green, the Chicago project helped launch the company and Chicago as a charging station leader. The project called for more places to charge an electric vehicle in 30 minutes than anywhere else in the country. Ford and Nissan moved up the rollout of their electric cars to the Chicago market because of the 350Green project.

 

[stopcrazypp]

There are FAR more than just three public charger networks in the USA. Large networks like ChargePoint do not have many DC quick chargers at all, nor have they offered "support" for Combo.

I named those three because they are the largest DC charging networks. I didn't mention ChargePoint because they have relatively low DC charging presence (added their first 25kW DC station in 11/2012). But okay, even if you add them, that does not add many chargers to the CHAdeMO side. And besides from them I don't believe there are any other charging networks with any DC charging presence (planned or other wise). Feel free to correct me if that's not true.

350green was near bankrupt and bought out *** April 11, 2013 update: 350green investigated by FBI; operations in 19 markets stopped **** and Blink will be bankrupt when federal funds dry up.

Both of these are currently CHAdeMO networks so them going bankrupt will only drastically decrease the number of available CHAdeMO. In particular, Blink is by far the #1 provider across the US and 350Green #1 in Chicago.

As I stated in my post. No public Frankenplugs, and those three cars (I didn't name eGolf) in the USA. Of those three, two are strictly CARB compliance cars which will sell in comically small numbers. Check out the sales of Toyota Rav4EV, Ford FocusEV, Mitsubishi iMiev and Honda FitEV to see just how ridiculously small those numbers can go. The BMW i3 may sell in respectable numbers, but I find that highly unlikely given the initial price point of almost $50k.

How many CHAdeMO cars are there in the US? I can count them on 2 fingers: the Leaf and the iMIEV. The iMIEV sells at compliance car volume (even though it's not technically one). So again, it'll mainly be a two horse race between the i3 and Leaf. But that's kind of beside the point. As long as there is some presence of SAE DC capable cars (esp. non-compliance) there will be stations built for it. And how long do you expect the Leaf to hold a virtual EV monopoly (Tesla excluded)? If EVs truly become viable (not niche) I suspect not very long.

Does anybody find it odd that the number one selling EV of all time, with over 50,000 sold, is not in the Frankenplug Club?

No. Nissan is one of the founding members of CHAdeMO and invested millions into the standard. CHAdeMO is also the only viable standard in their home market. It makes sense why they want to stick with CHAdeMO.

The aim for those 200 stations is specifically NOT "by this summer". The agreement for NRG is over 4 years, with only 12 CHAdeMO equipped stations (with J1772) the first year and the remaining 188 over the following 3 years.

From Robert's quote, as long as there are two UL certified station manufacturers (which should happen by this summer from the document I posted) they have to modify all existing CHAdeMO stations to support SAE DC. The reason they have been foot dragging is because it's cheaper than retrofitting CHAdeMO stations later on. There's no provision for minimal cars, just that if any standard gets abandoned then they don't have to follow the requirement.

I'll bet more Tesla Model S/X/Gen III are using them in the coming years with adaptors than ALL the Frankenplug cars combined. Of course, those Tesla cars will have their own dedicated network plus access to both CHAdeMO and Frankenplug stations with adapters. ADVANTAGE TESLA !!!!

That's actually not a problem for me and I would like to see this. But I bet most people would rather pick the SAE adapter if station availability is similar (which is why I'm rooting for SAE DC).

VW didn't go with Combo because Combo was making "in-roads".... quite the opposite !!!! It's a "non sequitur".

My point there was VW probably expected CHAdeMO to have much more presence in Europe and that's probably why they started with CHAdeMO. But Leaf/iMIEV sales have been hugely disappointing in Europe and Nissan's main partner, Renault, opted not to support it at all. Add the fact that the EU recently said they would only support IEC standards (which CHADeMO isn't, although they are trying to make it so) and it become clear why VW ditched it.

If adapters are available anywhere in the world, they will show up in the USA, guaranteed. That means somebody driving their Combo car with no place to charge can use the many thousands of CHAdeMO stations already around the world.

Why would someone with a Combo car (or vise versa) WANT to use an adapter over having stations that support both types? California is pushing for dual stations exactly so this can be avoided. Tesla is only going with adapters because they are using a completely proprietary standard (plus the whole free charging for life).

As a matter of fact, Nissan is adding 500 more, and there will be thousands more soon.

Nissan is offering dealer CHAdeMO stations, but real world usage of it both in the US and UK shows them to be unreliable. This is because they are only accessible during business hours, you must get dealer permission to use it (and even if you call in ahead sometimes they change their mind), and the status is not electronically updated. This is not the same as stations installed as part of public networks (like the 4 we have mentioned so far).

I'll readily admit I'm hugely optimistic about SAE and that it hasn't even gotten of the ground yet, but I think you are overly pessimistic about it.

 

[Norbert]

I'll readily admit I'm hugely optimistic about SAE and that it hasn't even gotten of the ground yet, but I think you are overly pessimistic about it.

Recently it sounds a bit like the SAE-equipped cars, as well as upcoming SAE chargers, will have a charging rate of around 50 kW (even though it theoretically supports 100 kW or so), for batteries of a small range. I don't really see that as taking off in a big way, although there'll surely be some efforts to install a number of chargers (other than NRG in CA).

So Superchargers might remain the only ~100 kW chargers for a while. (Looking forward to the upcoming Supercharger announcement.) I think Tesla's concept will be the one driving "the future" of electric cars. While both CHAdeMO and SAE will help as secondary support via adapters. I don't think there will be such a big showdown between the two, in the next few years, as both will be of relative significance.

 

[gregincal]

As I stated in my post. No public Frankenplugs

Actually, that's not quite true. There's at least one that I know of, installed by GoE3 in Arizona last December:

Quick Charge at Picacho Peak - Arizona Public Media

 

[stopcrazypp]

Recently it sounds a bit like the SAE-equipped cars, as well as upcoming SAE chargers, will have a charging rate of around 50 kW (even though it theoretically supports 100 kW or so), for batteries of a small range. I don't really see that as taking off in a big way, although there'll surely be some efforts to install a number of chargers (other than NRG in CA).

On the car side, it would depend on what the connector is rated for (plus the batteries too, on smaller batteries, 100kW is probably overkill). On the charger side it's mostly because a vast majority of planned SAE stations will also have a CHAdeMO connector. Again, this is with the consumer in mind (not trying to launch a connector war but rather to focus on actual quick charging infrastructure that will be useful for all).

We may see some 100kW SAE DC only stations, but I don't expect that to happen until we have either larger batteries or ones that use a chemistry that can handle that power even with a small battery.

 

[richkae]

Actually, that's not quite true. There's at least one that I know of, installed by GoE3 in Arizona last December:

View attachment 19993

Quick Charge at Picacho Peak - Arizona Public Media

I am shocked that this exists at all.
Now.... When will a car exist that can use it?

 

[cwerdna]

^^^
From My Nissan Leaf Forum View topic - J1772 combo plug (aka CCS aka Frankenplug) charger counts, it seems there are probably 3 Frankenplug chargers in the US, including the one above.

And of course, AFAIK, there are 0 currently shipping Frankenplug vehicles in the US.

 

[stopcrazypp]

^^^
From My Nissan Leaf Forum View topic - J1772 combo plug (aka CCS aka Frankenplug) charger counts, it seems there are probably 3 Frankenplug chargers in the US, including the one above.

And of course, AFAIK, there are 0 currently shipping Frankenplug vehicles in the US.

Actually, including gregincal's mentioned charger, there are 5 in total.

By previously posted link shows 4 manufacturer ones:
http://www.evcollaborative.org/site...tive DC Combo Update for 13Mar2013_final2.pdf
And from the same link there are 7 suppliers (I miscounted previously) getting chargers UL certified so there are probably a few that have not been publicly announced yet.

The first SAE DC car (the Spark EV) will launch this summer in California and Oregon.

 

[cwerdna]

^^^
Thanks for the update. Feel free to post your update to MNL.

So... based upon data at places like Hybrid Market Dashboard - HybridCars.com and 2012 - Dont Call It A Comeback Edition , how many of 3 Frankenplug cars (Spark EV, i3, eGolf) do you expect to be sold a year in the US AND be equipped w/Frankenplug?

Remember that BMW and VW don't sell many cars in the US to begin with. I haven't kept up with the i3 much at all but I don't expect a BMW-branded vehicle to be particularly cheap, judging by the rest of their products. Based on this, I suspect none of the 3 will sell in particularly large volumes in the US.

 

[ZBB]

Remember that BMW and VW don't sell many cars in the US to begin with. I haven't kept up with the i3 much at all but I don't expect a BMW-branded vehicle to be particularly cheap, judging by the rest of their products. Based on this, I suspect none of the 3 will sell in particularly large volumes in the US.

Um... BMW and VW combined sold over 950,000 cars in the US in 2012 (for all their brands combined, including Porsche, which VW acquired during 2012).

It was also a record year for both companies, and BMW is the top selling luxury brand in the US.

 

[scottf200]

MNL Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2012 11:33 am: http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?p=205597#p205597

BMW has had a couple dozen ActiveE's using the SAE Combo plug for a while now, undoubtedly testing it for the i3. Here is a picture of an ActiveE charge port with it that was taken at EVS26 in California last month. The plug can fit in the same opening currently used on the ActiveE for the J1772.
I also have a picture of a CHAdeMO connector next to the SAE plug. They really isn't that much difference in weight and size when you hold them both up at the same time. I didn't take these pictures, but I have seen and held both connectors at the same time.

 

[Dave EV]

I named those three because they are the largest DC charging networks. I didn't mention ChargePoint because they have relatively low DC charging presence (added their first 25kW DC station in 11/2012).

Technically, while the 25kW DC station is on the ChargePoint network, the station itself is actually owned and operated by Evoasis (Tony is the CTO).

How many CHAdeMO cars are there in the US? I can count them on 2 fingers: the Leaf and the iMIEV. The iMIEV sells at compliance car volume (even though it's not technically one). So again, it'll mainly be a two horse race between the i3 and Leaf. But that's kind of beside the point. As long as there is some presence of SAE DC capable cars (esp. non-compliance) there will be stations built for it. And how long do you expect the Leaf to hold a virtual EV monopoly (Tesla excluded)? If EVs truly become viable (not niche) I suspect not very long.

So far, there are really only two QC capable cars on the market, the LEAF and Model S. The i3 may or may not sell - they are lucky that Tesla canceled the 40 kWh Model S leaving them a good sized hole in the middle of the market.

I'll readily admit I'm hugely optimistic about SAE and that it hasn't even gotten of the ground yet, but I think you are overly pessimistic about it.

I have a hard time being optimistic about a 3rd (4th?) competing DC charging standard at a point where DC charging stations are very rare and already way too expensive to install and operate.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Technically, while the 25kW DC station is on the ChargePoint network, the station itself is actually owned and operated by Evoasis (Tony is the CTO).

Looking more closely, you are right. And browsing ChargePoint's "network" it seems they basically sign on third parties. The other three mentioned own and operate their own DC chargers.

So far, there are really only two QC capable cars on the market, the LEAF and Model S. The i3 may or may not sell - they are lucky that Tesla canceled the 40 kWh Model S leaving them a good sized hole in the middle of the market.

That's certainly true. But right now it's pretty clear to me that the only CHAdeMO car that's making any impact is the Leaf and the iMIEV is a very distant second. Tesla also has huge market share (which is why I said Tesla excluded). But all the other manufacturers have backed SAE. Sure, many of them don't have cars out yet, but if they see the EV market picking up, I have no doubt they will release cars. How long can the Leaf hold off the combined volume of all the other companies? From all the format battles I have seen, first mover advantage is not as important as having backing from many manufacturers.

I have a hard time being optimistic about a 3rd (4th?) competing DC charging standard at a point where DC charging stations are very rare and already way too expensive to install and operate.

Despite my support for Tesla, I don't see a completely proprietary format "winning" or outnumbering either CHAdeMO or SAE in station numbers. So adapters will be the practical reality.

I'm optimistic because of the similarities between the Model S connector and SAE DC. Everything I'm seeing points to an SAE DC adapter only being slightly more expensive than the existing AC one. A CHAdeMO adapter would cost quite a bit more. If most stations end up as dual plug stations, if I get a Gen III, I would be able to use them without having to buy a CHAdeMO adapter. A connector is not a very big part of the cost of a DC station, so I don't think dual connector stations will cost significantly more than a single connector one.

 

[cwerdna]

Um... BMW and VW combined sold over 950,000 cars in the US in 2012 (for all their brands combined, including Porsche, which VW acquired during 2012).

It was also a record year for both companies, and BMW is the top selling luxury brand in the US.

Let's break them out by their major brands in US sales for 2012 and compare to some of the bigger brands.
VW: 438K
BMW: 281K
Mini: 66K
Porsche: 35K

GM: 2.595 million
Ford: 2.25 million
Toyota: 2.08 million
Nissan: 1.14 million

For 2012, Camry sales exceeded that of ALL BMWs combined. In March 2013, Nissan sold 4K more Altimas than ALL BMWs combined in that month. Nissan's total 2012 US sales were about 2.5x that of VW yet they only managed to sell 9819 Leafs in the US last year and 9674 the year before. For 2012 and 2011, the Leaf was the best selling BEV.

GM's sales were about 9x that of BMW and they sold 23461 Volts for 2012 and 7671 for 2011. As for VW and "record", they're still down significantly from their peak in the 70s.

If we assume that BMW somehow sells 1/9th the number i3 that GM sells Volts, that would be 2606 in a year. It's hard to say if that'll happen. It really depends on the pricing and if people accept the styling or want the range extender. If we do the same thing for VW (comparing overall VW sales to Nissan sales), that'd be 3927 eGolfs, which does sound a bit better. By the point VW ships its BEVs, the # of CHAdeMO equipped Leafs in the US will have increased by another 10K or more.

Between BMW and VW, I'd say BMW has a far more serious EV program.

Supporting links:
Toyota | December 2012 and Year-End Sales Chart
BMW Group Achieves Best Sales Year Ever in the U.S. -- WOODCLIFF LAKE, N.J., Jan. 3, 2013 /PRNewswire/ --
Nissan North America Sales Increase 9.5 Percent in 2012 - U.S. Sales Reports - Nissan Online Newsroom
http://media.gm.com/content/dam/Media/gmcom/investor/2012/Deliveries-December-2012.pdf

BMW Group U.S. Reports March 2013 Sales -- WOODCLIFF LAKE, N.J., April 2, 2013 /PRNewswire/ --
Top 20 Best-Selling Cars In America - March 2013 - GOOD CAR BAD CAR

New CEO aims to boost VW's fortunes in U.S. - Business - Autos - The Driver Seat | NBC News
Volkswagen Group of America - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[scottf200]

I often see quotes of the number of LEAFs sold as an indication of how many cars need/validate CHAdeMO.

Of all these sales how many actually even have the QC option?

http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2011/01/nissan-leaf-sales-figures.html

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

In 2013 MY, the cheapest LEAF S model cost of the "charger package" is $1,300. How many are opting for that?

 

[cwerdna]

I often see quotes of the number of LEAFs sold as an indication of how many cars need/validate CHAdeMO.

Of all these sales how many actually even have the QC option?

http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2011/01/nissan-leaf-sales-figures.html

Unfortunately, I don't have more current stats OTOH but from long ago at Plug-In 2011: Details on Nissans 2012 Leaf price increase

Many 2011 Leaf buyers were selecting the cold weather package once it became available, so making it and the quick charge feature standard on the 2012 model makes sense. Jones said:

If you look at the vehicle ordering statistics, and we're on sale in seven states, the SL trim is a 94-95 percent of the mix and of those SLs, 90 percent are DC quick charge. All of that is driven by customer behavior because it's a build-to-order model. So, the customers selected, overwhelmingly, [these options].

On the '11, you had to get the SL (SV was the only other trim) to get the optional CHAdeMO port. On the '12, CHAdeMO become standard/a forced feature if you opted for the SL. The more stripped down S trim is new for '13.

A good reason to use the Leaf is because it was the best selling BEV for '11 and '12, has CHAdeMO and sells in MUCH larger numbers than the i-Miev in the US.

 

[stopcrazypp]

If we assume that BMW somehow sells 1/9th the number i3 that GM sells Volts, that would be 2606 in a year. It's hard to say if that'll happen. It really depends on the pricing and if people accept the styling or want the range extender. If we do the same thing for VW (comparing overall VW sales to Nissan sales), that'd be 3927 eGolfs, which does sound a bit better. By the point VW ships its BEVs, the # of CHAdeMO equipped Leafs in the US will have increased by another 10K or more.

I'm not sure breaking down by brand is that useful for predicting EV sales. The data shows EV buyers do not follow their traditional brand loyalty and are very willing to cross shop brands. For example, Leaf and Volt sales were similar in 2011 despite GM having twice the volume overall (I bet this year the results will be similar). And I'm willing to bet the i3 will outsell the eGolf, just because the eGolf is a compliance car, despite VW being larger overall. And the relative competitiveness of the cars are drastically different than the ICE segment (for one, the price point of EVs already shifts all of them up in the market).

Don't forget the Spark either (which by your model would outsell the Leaf, but in reality it won't).

But this is besides the point. I don't really care about the short term individual sales of SAE DC cars. As long as they are okay (combined at ~10k per year, not really that difficult to achieve) the chargers will come (just like they did for the Leaf at similar volumes). Long term it's mainly Nissan vs the non-Japanese manufacturers. Mitsubishi will play a minor role and Toyota, Subaru, Mazda is MIA on the CHAdeMO side.

 

[Norbert]

The i3 will probably be a nice EV, a bit better than the LEAF but probably also more expensive. It currently doesn't seem BMW will push it as much as Nissan pushes the Leaf.

So I see Tesla's lead as growing. (Not the others as catching up.)

 

[Robert.Boston]

FWIW, the CEO of NRG Energy (parent of evGO) owns both a Roadster and a Model S (and , I think, a Leaf). I think it's safe to say that he's committed to making EVs work. He lives in the Princeton NJ area, so look for an evGO build-out on the East Coast.

 

[gregincal]

I'm optimistic because of the similarities between the Model S connector and SAE DC. Everything I'm seeing points to an SAE DC adapter only being slightly more expensive than the existing AC one. A CHAdeMO adapter would cost quite a bit more. If most stations end up as dual plug stations, if I get a Gen III, I would be able to use them without having to buy a CHAdeMO adapter. A connector is not a very big part of the cost of a DC station, so I don't think dual connector stations will cost significantly more than a single connector one.

This is my best guess as well. In California we know we're getting dual connector stations. If the SAE adaptor for the S is cheaper and possibly smaller than the CHAdeMo one, that would provide a large boost for SAE, since the S sales numbers are big. I don't know that will be the case, but it seems like a possibility. (btw, I always feel that the people who refer to "frankenplug" like to think that CHAdeMO is somehow more aesthetically pleasing, when in fact it looks like something that should be fueling a jet airplane, not charging a car. They both are really clunky compared to a supercharger.) In the end, as long as we have adaptors for both I don't really care which wins, I just want more DC charging available soon.