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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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I don’t think most people realize how bad the economy of Russia is going to get if Putin doesn’t get the makarov.

3 years from now they will be Snow Venezuela losing millions of people a year to emigration on top of natural depopulation.

Reports are that Russia is unable to sell 70% of their oil now.
Exactly....which is why the world needs to stay patient and not escalate. Which I know, sounds terrible when people in Ukraine are dying. But more lives would be lost by escalation and WW3. Exponentially more lives.

From my view, the sanctions and world reaction has been more effective than I ever thought it would. It's only been a little over a week and we can see more and more of the Russian population protesting, more oligarch's coming out against Putin....even members of Russia's government are saying this is wrong. China's even showing signs of wavering after just a week.

If Ukraine can hold out another week......I seriously think Putin either caves or a coup happens. Loyalty in the inner circle always seems iron clad when things are fine/good. That crumbles amazingly fast when your lifestyle goes back to the stone age.
 
I don’t think most people realize how bad the economy of Russia is going to get if Putin doesn’t get the makarov.

3 years from now they will be Snow Venezuela losing millions of people a year to emigration on top of natural depopulation.

Reports are that Russia is unable to sell 70% of their oil now.
Putin and the Russians are already doing a lot more talking and a lot less demanding than they were 2-3 days ago.

It also seems likely that a lot of the northern forces are heading for surrender, retreat, elimination, in spite of the success they are having in the south there is no quick path to victory.

Serious social unrest at home starts with one army unit getting the full picture on the Russian death count, and the treatment of fallen soldiers.
In a totalitarian state is is very hard for the people to rebel alone, but one army unit can kick it off ..
For the army there isn't just the reward of doing the right thing, and avoiding likely death in a pointless war, every chance that they will be seen as national heros and reap some political / financial benefits. I'm not sure how likely this is, but it would be a great result if it happened,
 
Putin and the Russians are already doing a lot more talking and a lot less demanding than they were 2-3 days ago.

It also seems likely that a lot of the northern forces are heading for surrender, retreat, elimination, in spite of the success they are having in the south there is no quick path to victory.

Serious social unrest at home start with one army unit getting the full picture on the Russian death count, and the treatment of fallen soldiers.
In a totalitarian state is is very hard for the people to rebel alone, but one army unit can kick it off ..
For the army there isn't just the reward of doing the right thing, and avoiding likely death in a pointless war, every chance that they will be seen as national heros and reap some political / financial benefits,, I'm not sure how likely this is, but it would be a great result if it happened,
The best hope we have right now is the Russian military turning on Putin, including the generals. The next week or two could be very interesting if the campaign continues like it has. An entire giant convoy.......stuck, out of fuel and food, and surrendering. Just unreal.
 
Exactly....which is why the world needs to stay patient and not escalate. Which I know, sounds terrible when people in Ukraine are dying. But more lives would be lost by escalation and WW3. Exponentially more lives.

From my view, the sanctions and world reaction has been more effective than I ever thought it would. It's only been a little over a week and we can see more and more of the Russian population protesting, more oligarch's coming out against Putin....even members of Russia's government are saying this is wrong. China's even showing signs of wavering after just a week.

If Ukraine can hold out another week......I seriously think Putin either caves or a coup happens. Loyalty in the inner circle always seems iron clad when things are fine/good. That crumbles amazingly fast when your lifestyle goes back to the stone age.

Indeed.

It should be said, if Putin is eliminated, and Russia pulls back it’s troops, the west should be magnanimous in return. No treaty of Versailles 2.0.
 
Assad is still in power in Syria. Look at the atrocities he committed even using Chemical Weapons on his own people. Obama said the US would get involved if Assad used Chemical Weapons even stating a red line was crossed. Obama said Assad must step down. Guess what he is still in power. Why would Putin step down? You will have to physically remove him from power. Europe doesn't have the Stones for it. Neither does our government.
 
Assad is still in power in Syria. Look at the atrocities he committed even using Chemical Weapons on his own people. Obama said the US would get involved if Assad used Chemical Weapons even stating a red line was crossed. Obama said Assad must step down. Guess what he is still in power. Why would Putin step down? You will have to physically remove him from power. Europe doesn't have the Stones for it. Neither does our government.

Here is a possible solution for Syria:- Turkish involvement in the Syrian civil war - Wikipedia
 
Just to lighten things up Alternative Energy is no longer alternative; ITS the REAL THING.
We see why Nuclear has too many negatives and now Texas is making energy sans fossil fuel. The EU can easily transition to energy sans fossil fuels. We're on our way to a cleaner future once the idiots are taken care of.

 

'The invasion of Ukraine is suicide for Putin,' says Kremlin critic Mikhail Khodorkovsky​

Mar 2, 2022
Exiled Russian Kremlin critic Mikhail Khodorkovsky said in an interview with FRANCE 24 from London that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is political "suicide" for Russian President Vladimir Putin, who "cannot win in Ukraine, even if he manages to take Kyiv or Kharkiv". This war is the result of an "emotional decision" by Putin, the former oligarch said.
 

When will renewables get to 50 %​

Energy Sources in the United States​

"The three major fossil fuels—petroleum, natural gas, and coal—combined accounted for about 77.6% of the U.S. energy use

  • Natural gas: 31.8%
  • Petroleum (crude oil and natural gas plant liquids): 28%
  • Coal: 17.8%
  • Renewable energy: 13%
  • Nuclear electric power: 9.6%"
 
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Exactly....which is why the world needs to stay patient and not escalate. Which I know, sounds terrible when people in Ukraine are dying. But more lives would be lost by escalation and WW3. Exponentially more lives.

From my view, the sanctions and world reaction has been more effective than I ever thought it would. It's only been a little over a week and we can see more and more of the Russian population protesting, more oligarch's coming out against Putin....even members of Russia's government are saying this is wrong. China's even showing signs of wavering after just a week.

If Ukraine can hold out another week......I seriously think Putin either caves or a coup happens. Loyalty in the inner circle always seems iron clad when things are fine/good. That crumbles amazingly fast when your lifestyle goes back to the stone age.
There may only be a smoldering radioactive pile of rubble left of Ukraine in another week. Things are happening very quickly. The cities are being surrounded and shelled to pile of rubble, people and all. What do we have a military for if we can't protect free people of Europe from their continent being destroyed again? This is such a strategic blunder. We didn't maintain the high ground. Had we setup a no fly zone before they attacked, it would be they who were the aggressors starting a war the US. We just gave them a few missiles and said good luck buddy. Every Russian POW always says the same thing: "it was just a training mission, we didn't know we were going to Ukraine, and so on... Look that's what their trained to say, what Putin wants them to say. Likely so they might get sympathy from Ukrainian people, and by all accounts they get good food, water, and a phone call home. Sure nice of them to spend all that resource to treat them nice and give them food and water they might not have next week. I bet the Ukrainian POWs aren't being treated as nicely. I think we are underestimating Putin's chances of survival. He may in fact become the last person to be alive on this planet, hiding out in his bunker.
 
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There may only be a smoldering radioactive pile of rubble left of Ukraine in another week. Things are happening very quickly. The cities are being surrounded and shelled to pile of rubble, people and all. What do we have a military for if we can't protect free people of Europe from their continent being destroyed again? This is such a strategic blunder. We didn't maintain the high ground. Had we setup a no fly zone before they attacked, it would be they who were the aggressors starting a war the US. We just gave them a few missiles and said good luck buddy. Every Russian POW always says the same thing: "it was just a training mission, we didn't know we were going to Ukraine, and so on... Look that's what their trained to say, what Putin wants them to say. Likely so they might get sympathy from Ukrainian people, and by all accounts they get good food, water, and a phone call home. Sure nice of them to spend all that resource to treat them nice and give them food and water they might not have next week. I bet the Ukrainian POWs aren't being treated as nicely. I think we are underestimating Putin's chances of survival. He may in fact become the last person to be alive on this planet, hiding out in his bunker.
Look at the north and the stats Ukraine is putting out for Russian equipment losses and deaths. Some may say the figures are inflated, but the numbers are way higher than the Russians are admitting...

IMO the Ukraine / US /UK assessment of how the war is going is far closer to the truth than the Russian assessment.

This phase of the war just looks ugly because the Russians are hitting a lot of civilian buildings and their are civilian casualties,
The effect of those Russian strikes on the Ukraine military is minimal, mostly it just makes them more determined.
When the 2 militaries engage in close combat with anything like equal numbers it seems, Ukraine mostly wins.

There is an equipment imbalance, but the Russians are doing their best to even this up, by kindly donating some of theirs.
NATO and other countries are giving Ukraine a lot of equipment...

Russia is having a lot more success in the south than the north, capturing small villages, or demolishing some civilian buildings isn't success.
Any large city has lots of buildings, demolishing a few just makes the street to street fighting more complex..
If we were able to fly over the city, I bet more than 99% of buildings are standing, sure that number might come down a bit.

if there is any case for the US to do something extra, it is supply some of these:-

MQ-9 Reaper crews (Pilots and Sensor Operators), stationed at bases such as Creech Air Force Base, near Las Vegas, Nevada, can hunt for targets and observe terrain using multiple sensors, including a thermographic camera. One claim was that the on-board camera is able to read a license plate from two miles (3.2 km) away.[14] An operator's command takes 1.2 seconds to reach the drone via a satellite link.
The MQ-9 carries a variety of weapons including the GBU-12 Paveway II laser-guided bomb, the AGM-114 Hellfire II air-to-ground missiles, the AIM-9 Sidewinder,[14] and the GBU-38 Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM). Tests are underway to allow for the addition of the AIM-92 Stinger air-to-air missile.[cit
But if the invasion was success, that weapon would fall into Russian hands, IMO not likely but it is a risk.

Maybe supplying some MQ-9s to NATO allies, who in turn release MIGs, is a better bet...
Do do that, the Stinger air-to-air missile needs to work.
 
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Everyone is tracking how many tanks Ukraine has lost.... but how many have they acquired? Is their army BIGGER now? 🤔

Screen Shot 2022-03-03 at 9.05.12 PM.png
 
If you want to know what Putin and Russia’s blueprint has been, look into Alexandr Dugin.


Dugin’s work has been the keystone to all of Russia’s policies for the last 25 years. It calls for establishing a fascist Russo-centric Eurasian empire, leveraging oil wealth and the KGB to destabilize rivals.

Seriously, if I could recommend one thing for you guys to read it would be that wiki article.

Putin blew up that playbook with this invasion. Everything Putin feared has come to pass, and all his work over the last two decades has exploded in his face.

I don’t think most people realize how bad the economy of Russia is going to get if Putin doesn’t get the makarov.

3 years from now they will be Snow Venezuela losing millions of people a year to emigration on top of natural depopulation.

Reports are that Russia is unable to sell 70% of their oil now.

Agreed. Russia's economy will not survive 2 weeks.

Exactly....which is why the world needs to stay patient and not escalate. Which I know, sounds terrible when people in Ukraine are dying. But more lives would be lost by escalation and WW3. Exponentially more lives.

From my view, the sanctions and world reaction has been more effective than I ever thought it would. It's only been a little over a week and we can see more and more of the Russian population protesting, more oligarch's coming out against Putin....even members of Russia's government are saying this is wrong. China's even showing signs of wavering after just a week.

If Ukraine can hold out another week......I seriously think Putin either caves or a coup happens. Loyalty in the inner circle always seems iron clad when things are fine/good. That crumbles amazingly fast when your lifestyle goes back to the stone age.

Tom Nichols pointed out that most Russians are very adamantly against war with Ukraine. It would be like the US going to war with Canada. But Putin can get the Russian people behind war with the US and NATO.

When the enemy is doing an effective job burying themselves, don't do anything that helps them.

The Kremlin is leaking like mad. My partner found a story that was partially behind a paywall, but it was about the killer teams sent to assassinate Zalensky. Somebody in the Russian government has given the Ukrainians all the info needed to thwart these guys. Two Chechnian kill teams have been destroyed and the Wagner Group guys are pinned down in Kyiv. Every time they try anything, the Ukrainian security forces are steps ahead of them.

Someone also gave the US the entire war plan.

This says even the top people in Russia are not in favor of this.

The destruction of Ukraine is going to be bad, but much of Europe had this level of destruction at the end of WW II. When the population is behind the defense of the country, it doesn't matter how many buildings are destroyed, it just cements their resolve. And for urban warfare, the only thing tougher than attacking an intact city is attacked a city that has been destroyed by artillery fire and bombing first. All those destroyed buildings are building material for fortifications and road blocks.

Here’s why a no-fly zone over Ukraine is off the table

Everything has to be weighed against provoking a nuclear response from Putin. Dealing with an unhinged lunatic is hard.

Yup. I was watching an interview with Tom Nichols this evening. It's in a video podcast of an American political organization, so I won't post the link. But it's on YouTube. You can PM me if you can't find it.

He made the point that the only thing that would unify the Russians would be if NATO and the Americans got into the war. I also suspect that Putin has made it clear that if NATO crosses the border into Ukraine, the nukes will fly.

It's tough to not take action, but something that is the wisest course.