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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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The other place Ukraine might be able to get planes is Turkey.

After all they provided the Drones, and even after Russia complained, they provided more Drones,

They closed the sea to more Russian ships, and Russia complied.

You will notice Russia isn't as strident in criticising Turkey as it is with European NATO countries

No one smart wants to get into a fight with Turkey...

Still supplying the planes would risk WWIII, and I'm not sure what planes Turkey has. I would not be surprised if they are better than the Russian planes.


Nothing Russian, so not a quick fix, unless some F-4s go to Poland to free up MIGs.

 
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I believe it costs about$1 million just to fuel it or maybe 2 billion rubles. So is a Russian oligarch now only a millionaire?

 
I believe it costs about$1 million just to fuel it or maybe 2 billion rubles. So is a Russian oligarch now only a millionaire?

Seeing several reports of these seizures. Cyprus needs to be addressed.
 
The roscosmos public facing website is down (easy to try to visit yourself), but the screen shots don't really prove anything about command of any satellites, much less spy ones.

First three images show a wso2ei interface in English language, which I have doubts is what Russia uses for the software that controls their spy satellites. Last screenshot shows a vehicle control system login in Russian language, but title is "Система мониторинга автотранспорта", where the last word is avtotransporta, which seems to translate to motor transport or automobile transportation, not how satellites would be referred to (also mentioned in Twitter comments). Someone who knows Russian can chime in. Seems more like a fake screenshot translated from another language.

Comments in the Twitter mention that the spy satellites aren't even internet connected, which would make a whole lot more sense.

Here's another article with more details:
 
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Russian troops are attacking Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station in Enerhodar, the largest nuclear power plant in Europe. Apparently since they can't actually nuke Ukraine, they're going to try and create another Chernobyl. The Russian army doesn't seem to realize they'll kill themselves too.

Hopefully the operators were smart enough to push the control rods FULLY in at the first sign of combat.

I swear I'm having problems not wishing just the most AWEFUL things on Putin and his cronies. . .
 
The Chernobyl disaster created a large plume of radioactive material over Europe...
Are we going to continue to let the bully do what ever he wants? I fear that in another 1-2 weeks Ukraines major cities will be leveled. Even if Russia looses in the end, there won't be anything left. US and Europe should have made it clear a month ago that an attack on Ukraine was an attack on everyone. Now they should let Putin know that any Russian equipment still in Ukraine after the weekend will be used as target practice by everyone else. Letting an innocent country get destroyed while thousands of civilians are murdered is not acceptable, and now we are risking radioactive contamination in much of Europe. :mad:
 
The Chernobyl disaster created a large plume of radioactive material over Europe...
Yes but the plume was concentrated towards the north and east. The plant was on the edge of belarus and spread over southern belarus to russian border. Wow, this is some 100 miles out of the crimea on the dnipier. Jesus...the containment facility is on the dinipier. Hey black sea...glow at night much? Jesus...

ANyway the plum if the same for chernobyl would extend towards the russian border right to areas under siege.
 
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Unfortunately the last time the Russians pulled off a successful amphibious landing was last week. :( .

If you look at the Daily Energy News thread I do most weekdays (Energy Sector News) you'll see a couple of recent links.

This was the Russian landing in the Sea of Azov, last week

This appears to be the mine-clearance effort to prepare the way off Odessa, ongoing

The Russians are actually quite good at naval landings. They tend to be relatively modest affairs that are intended to outflank and link up with shore-based thrusts. We can hope that they bite off more than they can chew in the Odessa area. If they are going to Odessa that is, perhaps they are headed for other off-load points. Unfortunately the Ukrainian shore defences are not as good as one might wish - the anti-shipping missiles that were on order are only half delivered. The TELs have been delivered, but not the missiles (Ukraine ordered a first batch of Neptune anti-ship missile systems - Naval News) so this is like having a fry pan but no eggs for a hungry man.

I reckon about half of the not-yet-committed Russian troops are in the amphibious forces. So the (limited) good news in this is that the Russians will be almost fully-committed with no flexible assets loitering in the littoral if this goes ahead.

From what I can gleam, it was an unopposed landing and only a short distance from their troops coming in from the east. I was referring to opposed landings. The Russians have done river assaults, but never an opposed amphibious landing.

Who is Russia a proxy for? Russia invaded a sovereign nation. Democratically elected. It is only a proxy in that it is dictatorship vs democracy. Putin standing in for Xi and Ukraine for Democracy. ? But no...I don't really see it as a proxy. Russia is led by a psychopath. Ukrainians want to be integrated into Europe.

The Spanish Civil War was a proxy war. People poured in from all over the world too fight for the ideology of their choice. Germany and Italy sent "volunteers" who were really regular troops learning to fight a modern war.

This is a straight up war. The foreign fighters are people who are personally motivated too fight and are not being sent directly by their governments. The only hand the governments have had in this is telling anyone who wants to join up that they will not face legal consequences for doing so.

You got it mostly right, yet, as I've lived this experience I feel compelled to add couple of things. Ethically, I am Serbian, but I was opposed to Serbia's action (MIlosevic's actions) throughout his campaign, while student and later, until I moved to Canada '97.

Firstly, leaders of Croatia, Bosnia, Serbia, and Serbian breakaway regions were all idiots, uninterested in reasonable solutions; they all have blood on their hands. Milosevic (Serbia) had most weapons so he did most damage, but tactics were similar.

Part that complicates picture is that Croatia had significant Serbian minority (25% or so) that felt threatened, with good reasons: mad Croatian leader that was threatening them by invoking some of the Nazi paraphernalia. Serbians, Jews and Gypsies experienced genocid in Croatia (by Croatians) during WW2 (google Jasenovac), so this created real sense of fear with Serbians there.

Bosnia was way more complicated: 43% Muslim, 37% Serbs and about 20% Croatians. Everyone felt threatened, mostly because all leaders were pushing for war, and there was a lot of bad blood from WW2. Serbians had most weapons, see below.

Milosevic rose on the platform of protecting Serbs, that then he turned into aggression against others, trying to create Big Serbia by carving out all regions where Serbians were majority, so wanting to take parts of Croatia and Bosnia. This was trough encouraging and supplying weapons to Serbian rebels inside those regions, and sending volunteers from Serbia. Those volunteers, bottom of the barrel (and most naive), war seems to attract the worst people. And Milosevic had lots of weapons by basically grabbing 90% of ex-Yugoslavian weapon systems.

There were no good guys here - history is a lot more grey than black and white. Including NATO's role in bombing of Serbia (re Kosovo, continuation of the story, after Bosnia), not unlike what Russians do now to Ukraine. You may not believe it, but I have family there. They are forever marked by that experience and for years kept talking about it. My mom told me about house shaking from the bombs falling couple blocks away, while they were hiding in the basement... Chinese Embassy in Belgrade was struck and turned into rubble... Graphite bombs caused power outage every single day for most of the country. Regular passenger train was hit, with over 160 dead... Serbia surrendered after carpet bombing that obliterated 400 soldiers in one attack - 18 to 19 year old kids drafted after high school, as Serbia at the time didn't have professional army.

And with all damage that NATO did, there are many anecdotes that show NATO wasn't actually trying to be evil: pilots repeatedly emptying their arsenals on carton model of a tank(rebuilt overnight), in the same place, every single day. Or dropping bombs where there is nothing, NOTHING. It's just... war, and bad things happen.

I'll admit that Milosevic provoked NATO, by not wanting to engage in any reasonable solution for Kosovo. By this point no one trusted Milosevic anything, so even-though Kosovo was part of Serbia, he managed to lose it...

My point is that world politics and history is a grey, complicated and ugly affair. It's really hard to understand full picture.
For example: my dad, brainwashed by Milosevic propaganda STOLE my vote to support Milosevic. After huge fight, he... did it again next time... Full control of media is really, really powerful...

I just wish for PEACE - no objective and goal (to me) could be worth mothers' grief that will be burying their sons. No matter the side...
I won't respond to any comments on this post, too painful relieving all those years...

Most of the countries in Europe get very nervous about war on European soil. They reacted strongly to the war in the Balkans and they are reacting strongly to this war.

Yes, I think they had around 4 planes that would be suitable...

I think they could retrofit the required hardware...

This is what they could use the planes for:-

Looking at the website it looks like they have one Mig-29 and that's about it. The Mig-29 came from Paul Allen's collection and would have been completely demilitarized.

Any Russian aircraft in private collections would take some serious effort to convert back to being combat ready again. Transferring NATO aircraft into Ukrainian hands is about the only viable option.

which way is air current this time of year?

Ukraine Surface Wind on Thursday 10 Mar at 2pm EET

Toward Crimea and then towards Turkey. The stories are that this type of plant (it's fairly new) is unlikely to melt down like Chernobyl and more likely to have an event like Fukushima. Still pretty bad.

Setting off a nuclear meltdown as a deliberate act of war that causes nuclear fallout on a NATO country could trigger article 5. The Turks may argue that.
 
Hopefully the operators were smart enough to push the control rods FULLY in at the first sign of combat.

I swear I'm having problems not wishing just the most AWEFUL things on Putin and his cronies. . .
Just when I thought Putin couldn't get even dumber, he orders this.

Putin seems intent on isolating himself from even his allies. I don't think even China would stand by Putin if his actions release radiation across Europe.

Honestly......it feels like we're coming to the end of this thing. Attacking a nuclear power plant is the action of a desperate man. I'm actually starting to wonder if the Russian losses are just as bad as the Ukrainians are reporting.
 
From what I can gleam, it was an unopposed landing and only a short distance from their troops coming in from the east. I was referring to opposed landings. The Russians have done river assaults, but never an opposed amphibious landing.



The Spanish Civil War was a proxy war. People poured in from all over the world too fight for the ideology of their choice. Germany and Italy sent "volunteers" who were really regular troops learning to fight a modern war.

This is a straight up war. The foreign fighters are people who are personally motivated too fight and are not being sent directly by their governments. The only hand the governments have had in this is telling anyone who wants to join up that they will not face legal consequences for doing so.



Most of the countries in Europe get very nervous about war on European soil. They reacted strongly to the war in the Balkans and they are reacting strongly to this war.



Looking at the website it looks like they have one Mig-29 and that's about it. The Mig-29 came from Paul Allen's collection and would have been completely demilitarized.

Any Russian aircraft in private collections would take some serious effort to convert back to being combat ready again. Transferring NATO aircraft into Ukrainian hands is about the only viable option.



Ukraine Surface Wind on Thursday 10 Mar at 2pm EET

Toward Crimea and then towards Turkey. The stories are that this type of plant (it's fairly new) is unlikely to melt down like Chernobyl and more likely to have an event like Fukushima. Still pretty bad.

Setting off a nuclear meltdown as a deliberate act of war that causes nuclear fallout on a NATO country could trigger article 5. The Turks may argue that.
The containment water cooling source is the dnipier, right into the black sea. Impacts Romania Bulgaria and Turkey.

I knew what a proxy war was...prior poster was trying to argue this is a proxy war because the Ukraines are being provided weapons by anyone with a soul. I assume the poster is putin fanboy or rightwing apologists.
 
Are we going to continue to let the bully do what ever he wants? I fear that in another 1-2 weeks Ukraines major cities will be leveled. Even if Russia looses in the end, there won't be anything left. US and Europe should have made it clear a month ago that an attack on Ukraine was an attack on everyone. Now they should let Putin know that any Russian equipment still in Ukraine after the weekend will be used as target practice by everyone else. Letting an innocent country get destroyed while thousands of civilians are murdered is not acceptable, and now we are risking radioactive contamination in much of Europe. :mad:

We aren't letting the bully do what he wants. The west is doing everything possible right up to things that would trigger a nuclear exchange. Putin would very likely start using tactical nukes if NATO sent troops into Ukraine.

The Russian economy is in free fall. Someone posted it yesterday, but an economic expert wrote an analysis that Russia has about 2 weeks before the entire economy implodes worse than anything we've ever seen.

The Russians surrendering are now saying they haven't had any water in 24 hours. A group of Russian officers surrendered today. It looks like the troops in the south are probably faring a bit better, but the army in the north is dying of starvation. One estimate my partner saw stated that we will probably be seeing mass surrender of at least the northern army in a couple of days.

The notes leaked by the former Lithuanian defense minister that he got from someone who was in a meeting around day 3 of the conflict said that the army would be in serious supply trouble and would reach a point of unsustainability by day 10. The next day the big convoy called the 40 mile long convoy (it's actually about 4 miles long) formed up and headed south, but it's completely stalled out and going nowhere.

The prediction of day 10 collapse of the army may become a reality.

I know it's frustrating, but every action on the world stage will generate a reaction. Escalating to a nuclear exchange is the one thing nobody wants to see. If Russia had no nukes, NATO would be in country now. But Russia has more nukes than anyone else. That makes direct confrontation difficult.

The containment water cooling source is the dnipier, right into the black sea. Impacts Romania Bulgaria and Turkey.

I knew what a proxy war was...prior poster was trying to argue this is a proxy war because the Ukraines are being provided weapons by anyone with a soul. I assume the poster is putin fanboy or rightwing apologists.

I won't assume motives. Different people can come to different conclusions. Sometimes those are politically motivated, but sometimes the same conclusions can come from something else.

Personally I do not think this is a proxy war, but some people define a proxy war differently than I do.
 
Blaming the US for this situation is like laying the complete blame for Pearl Harbor on the US embargo of oil to Japan. That embargo led the Japanese to attack the US so they could capture the oil in the Dutch East Indies without the US interfering.

If you want to know what Putin and Russia’s blueprint has been, look into Alexandr Dugin.


Dugin’s work has been the keystone to all of Russia’s policies for the last 25 years. It calls for establishing a fascist Russo-centric Eurasian empire, leveraging oil wealth and the KGB to destabilize rivals.

Seriously, if I could recommend one thing for you guys to read it would be that wiki article.
 
The collapse of Russia within is faster than the collapse of cities in Ukraine.


I don’t think most people realize how bad the economy of Russia is going to get if Putin doesn’t get the makarov.

3 years from now they will be Snow Venezuela losing millions of people a year to emigration on top of natural depopulation.

Reports are that Russia is unable to sell 70% of their oil now.