Russia/Ukraine conflict

[elasalle]

I get that, I mean...hmm years ago I helped organize a good portion of a proxy war, asia...different times, over 20 years ago. 16k is not simple. They have to be fed, clothed, armed, organized, integrated, communicated to and within. Chain of command established, transported, burial arrangements made, next of kin details. People that volunteer to go fight and die are almost by definition high maint. Some are just nut cases and you have to get them culled out and returned home.

I wish it were that simple but it's not really. Now if they are Poles and Hungarians and Estonians and Bulgarians it is easier but still.... I don't think the Ukranian govt is setup to deal with this challenge. Still a logistical nightmare.

Step 1: send them to the front lines
Step 2: worry about everything else later

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Xdama it is because you have the history of that conflict completely wrong.

It is very similar to this case where Croatia voted to leave because the serbs has started to dismantle the work of Tito and to dominate all aspects of the country (Tito had enforced a multi ethnic communist party state and a croat could do well, a muslim could do well, etc). So they wanted to leave. Solvenia left first but the Serbs couldn't get there and no serbs really lived there. Croatia border Serbia and the border areas were mixed. Yugoslav army was ordered to invade to stop the croatia from leaving and it spiraled into hell from there.

Croatia was not the "aggressor" so much as they wanted to leave Yugoslavia. Anyone that was not serbian felt the same way. Bosnians, Albanians in Kosovo, Croats, Solvenians. The serbs were the aggressor, the ones that carried out the massacres, the ones convicted in the ICC. A few croat were also convicted of war crimes. In croatia it got ugly but it wouldn't have if the serb dominated government had not been determined to impose will by force. The history of the breakup of yugoslavia was very ugly, plenty of wrong by both sides but it was mostly the serbs that behaved in a brutal and criminal fashion. Trying to hold something together by force is silly, the chechs and slovaks split nicely. Putin did not learn this lesson or care.

You got it mostly right, yet, as I've lived this experience I feel compelled to add couple of things. Ethically, I am Serbian, but I was opposed to Serbia's action (MIlosevic's actions) throughout his campaign, while student and later, until I moved to Canada '97.

Firstly, leaders of Croatia, Bosnia, Serbia, and Serbian breakaway regions were all idiots, uninterested in reasonable solutions; they all have blood on their hands. Milosevic (Serbia) had most weapons so he did most damage, but tactics were similar.

Part that complicates picture is that Croatia had significant Serbian minority (25% or so) that felt threatened, with good reasons: mad Croatian leader that was threatening them by invoking some of the Nazi paraphernalia. Serbians, Jews and Gypsies experienced genocid in Croatia (by Croatians) during WW2 (google Jasenovac), so this created real sense of fear with Serbians there.

Bosnia was way more complicated: 43% Muslim, 37% Serbs and about 20% Croatians. Everyone felt threatened, mostly because all leaders were pushing for war, and there was a lot of bad blood from WW2. Serbians had most weapons, see below.

Milosevic rose on the platform of protecting Serbs, that then he turned into aggression against others, trying to create Big Serbia by carving out all regions where Serbians were majority, so wanting to take parts of Croatia and Bosnia. This was trough encouraging and supplying weapons to Serbian rebels inside those regions, and sending volunteers from Serbia. Those volunteers, bottom of the barrel (and most naive), war seems to attract the worst people. And Milosevic had lots of weapons by basically grabbing 90% of ex-Yugoslavian weapon systems.

There were no good guys here - history is a lot more grey than black and white. Including NATO's role in bombing of Serbia (re Kosovo, continuation of the story, after Bosnia), not unlike what Russians do now to Ukraine. You may not believe it, but I have family there. They are forever marked by that experience and for years kept talking about it. My mom told me about house shaking from the bombs falling couple blocks away, while they were hiding in the basement... Chinese Embassy in Belgrade was struck and turned into rubble... Graphite bombs caused power outage every single day for most of the country. Regular passenger train was hit, with over 160 dead... Serbia surrendered after carpet bombing that obliterated 400 soldiers in one attack - 18 to 19 year old kids drafted after high school, as Serbia at the time didn't have professional army.

And with all damage that NATO did, there are many anecdotes that show NATO wasn't actually trying to be evil: pilots repeatedly emptying their arsenals on carton model of a tank(rebuilt overnight), in the same place, every single day. Or dropping bombs where there is nothing, NOTHING. It's just... war, and bad things happen.

I'll admit that Milosevic provoked NATO, by not wanting to engage in any reasonable solution for Kosovo. By this point no one trusted Milosevic anything, so even-though Kosovo was part of Serbia, he managed to lose it...

My point is that world politics and history is a grey, complicated and ugly affair. It's really hard to understand full picture.
For example: my dad, brainwashed by Milosevic propaganda STOLE my vote to support Milosevic. After huge fight, he... did it again next time... Full control of media is really, really powerful...

I just wish for PEACE - no objective and goal (to me) could be worth mothers' grief that will be burying their sons. No matter the side...
I won't respond to any comments on this post, too painful relieving all those years...

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

I think Putin has been quite intelligent in his sociopathy over the years. This is an aeration for him, he got very reckless for some reason we don't fully understand.

It's possible he isolated himself so much during the pandemic he convinced himself that the advisors he normally listened to were idiots?

Dictators replace all sane people with minions.
They they setup minions and their families to the 5th removed cousin with great, powerful, corrupt jobs.
To buy their loyalty. And when I say minions, that includes anyone that has access to them. Putin's cook may be more powerful than most generals in his army...

After this is all done, it's hard throwing out dictator, there are no challenges to their power, and no intelligence other than dictator's one.

 

[traxila]

Who is Russia a proxy for? Russia invaded a sovereign nation. Democratically elected. It is only a proxy in that it is dictatorship vs democracy. Putin standing in for Xi and Ukraine for Democracy. ? But no...I don't really see it as a proxy. Russia is led by a psychopath. Ukrainians want to be integrated into Europe.

Yes, Russia is led by a psychopath (would that this was unique in the world...).

The Ukrainians, like all people, have the right for self determination, and should be left alone, not invaded by a neighboring bully with imperialist ambitions. Integration with Europe is up to them,

There are different interpretations as to what a proxy war constitutes. The strict definition is:

"a war instigated by a major power which does not itself become involved."

Russia obviously feels that this is the case. I do not believe that NATO has done this.

But the aspect I am focusing on, is where the ability for Ukraine to battle comes from.

Any weapons the Ukrainians have right now have been provided to them by Western powers or their neighbours. It is not like the Ukrainians have been manufacturing weapons of war and stockpiling. I take it that this is what Russia has been refering to in their insistence that the "militarization" of the Ukraine must be stopped. In the end, this is a battle of weapons and supplies between the US / Western Powers and Russia. Russia and NATO have not engaged in a hot war directly, as this would probably spell doom for the globe. But they have both engaged in this war with supplies, training, rhetoric and intelligence. As such, it is a proxy war.

 

[navguy12]

In case anyone missed it:

So now they are stuck in the spring thaw mud. Good.

 

[nwdiver]

Russia also provided ~40% of the worlds enrichment services.

 

[Singuy]

The Russians have suffered 6000 dead in a week. In 9+ years in Afghanistan they lost a little under 15000. And that helped bring down the Soviet Union.

The Russian military needs to consider how to defend the country with 1/5 the army they had at the beginning of the war. Large parts of their ground forces will either be gone or decimated. They will probably get most of the troops back when the peace treaty is finalized, but virtually all the equipment they sent into the war zone will be lost. And they will pretty much have no ammunition between small arms ammunition and nuclear weapons. They are unable to manufacture anything else.

The Ukrainians are giving POWs a call to their mothers upon capture. Then the Ukrainian officer on the call tells the mother that her son will not be harmed and will be fed and cared for, and that she should tell all her friends. Almost all the mothers were unaware their kid was in Ukraine or the extent of the war.

The Russians are so paranoid about the word getting out they are arresting children for protesting the war:
Moscow police arrest five children for protesting war in Ukraine

All while claiming there is no censorship in Russia.

Word of the war is percolating around the controlled media. It's slow and some people are not going to believe it, but word is spreading. If the Russian army starts surrendering en masse, there are going to be a lot of phone calls to a lot of Russian mothers which will lead to a lot of anger against Putin. At the same time the entire economy will be melting down, which will further anger the public.

The Russian army is like someone who was recently exposed to a lethal dose of radiation. It's sick, but it's going to die from this.

Alexander Lukashenko is probably going to fall too. He barely held on a few months back when the country was wracked with protests and he's now sent troops into the war.

Are there any sources you can provide with some of these numbers? I haven't see the 6000 figure from verifiable sources.

 

[nwdiver]

The Russians have suffered 6000 dead in a week. In 9+ years in Afghanistan they lost a little under 15000. And that helped bring down the Soviet Union.

Maybe this is one of them 'Monkey Paw' things. Putin wished for Ukraine and Russia to be part of the same country but failed to specify which country.

 

[nwdiver]

St. Petersburg - Helsinki trains. Get Train Tickets Online.

Buy train tickets from St. Petersburg to Helsinki. Find train times and prices and plan your St. Petersburg - Helsinki trip. Fast and simple online booking.

www.russiantrain.com

St Petersburg - Helsinki by train now €7k…

That's like..... a Gazillion Rubles!

 

[petit_bateau]

Are there any sources you can provide with some of these numbers? I haven't see the 6000 figure from verifiable sources.

I gave a 6,000 number, though I think others were using it as well (I forget). Last time I checked a precise daycount number it was 4,500-5,300 (something a bit more precise, I can't find the link right now, approx 28-Feb at the 5-day point) from which I used a daily fatality rate of 1,000/day and came up with 6,000 to be conservative after 7-days. I see Statista is now saying 9,000 Russian fatalities (crikey !).

Statista :

Russia: military equipment loss by type Ukraine 2022 | Statista

As of March 3, 2022, the Russian army has lost approximately nine thousand soldiers, 900 armored vehicles, and 217 tanks, among others, during the military operation on the Ukrainian territory.

www.statista.com

If you want you can look through the Ukrainian army posts to see their latest bodycount of the Russians,

https://www.facebook.com/UkrainianLandForces/posts/293209082911090

One of the earlier approx numbers

Putin's invasion has not gone to plan with Russia casualties 'nearing highs of previous wars'

Ukrainian officials claim that between 4,500 to 5,300 of Putin's troops have been killed so far - and anger is growing back in Russia

inews.co.uk

Or try this which says 5840 Russian dead as of 1-March

https://twitter.com/x/status/1499086691579146240

You can also try this:

War in Ukraine

On 24 February 2022 Russia invaded Ukraine. This website provides verified information about the war in Ukraine.

war.ukraine.ua

 

[Artful Dodger]

St. Ronnie delivering some of his best material from the Cold War era:

 

[stopcrazypp]

Are there any sources you can provide with some of these numbers? I haven't see the 6000 figure from verifiable sources.

6000 was sourced from Ukraine's president:

Ukraine says almost 6,000 Russians have been killed in the first 6 days of their invasion

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said almost 6,000 Russian soldiers died "in six days of war." Russia has not given its own figures.

www.businessinsider.com

Russia says 498:

Russia says 498 of its soldiers killed, 1,597 wounded in Ukraine - RIA

Russia's defence ministry said on Wednesday that 498 Russian soldiers had died in Ukraine and another 1,597 had been wounded since the beginning of Moscow's military operation there, Russia's RIA news agency reported.

www.reuters.com

That's still bad given the US didn't cross the 500 mark in Afghanistan until about 7 years into the conflict:

Soldiers killed in action in Afghanistan 2001-2021 | Statista

The number of soldiers killed in Afghanistan in 2021 amounted to 13 from the Western coalition, as of October 2021.

www.statista.com

It didn't until about 11 months for Iraq:

DCAS Reports - Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF) Casualty Summary by Month

Reality is likely between the two.

Pentagon on Monday estimated both sides lost about 1500 (mentioned in Business Insider article).

 

[Xdama]

You got it mostly right, yet, as I've lived this experience I feel compelled to add couple of things. Ethically, I am Serbian, but I was opposed to Serbia's action (MIlosevic's actions) throughout his campaign, while student and later, until I moved to Canada '97.

Firstly, leaders of Croatia, Bosnia, Serbia, and Serbian breakaway regions were all idiots, uninterested in reasonable solutions; they all have blood on their hands. Milosevic (Serbia) had most weapons so he did most damage, but tactics were similar.

Part that complicates picture is that Croatia had significant Serbian minority (25% or so) that felt threatened, with good reasons: mad Croatian leader that was threatening them by invoking some of the Nazi paraphernalia. Serbians, Jews and Gypsies experienced genocid in Croatia (by Croatians) during WW2 (google Jasenovac), so this created real sense of fear with Serbians there.

Bosnia was way more complicated: 43% Muslim, 37% Serbs and about 20% Croatians. Everyone felt threatened, mostly because all leaders were pushing for war, and there was a lot of bad blood from WW2. Serbians had most weapons, see below.

Milosevic rose on the platform of protecting Serbs, that then he turned into aggression against others, trying to create Big Serbia by carving out all regions where Serbians were majority, so wanting to take parts of Croatia and Bosnia. This was trough encouraging and supplying weapons to Serbian rebels inside those regions, and sending volunteers from Serbia. Those volunteers, bottom of the barrel (and most naive), war seems to attract the worst people. And Milosevic had lots of weapons by basically grabbing 90% of ex-Yugoslavian weapon systems.

There were no good guys here - history is a lot more grey than black and white. Including NATO's role in bombing of Serbia (re Kosovo, continuation of the story, after Bosnia), not unlike what Russians do now to Ukraine. You may not believe it, but I have family there. They are forever marked by that experience and for years kept talking about it. My mom told me about house shaking from the bombs falling couple blocks away, while they were hiding in the basement... Chinese Embassy in Belgrade was struck and turned into rubble... Graphite bombs caused power outage every single day for most of the country. Regular passenger train was hit, with over 160 dead... Serbia surrendered after carpet bombing that obliterated 400 soldiers in one attack - 18 to 19 year old kids drafted after high school, as Serbia at the time didn't have professional army.

And with all damage that NATO did, there are many anecdotes that show NATO wasn't actually trying to be evil: pilots repeatedly emptying their arsenals on carton model of a tank(rebuilt overnight), in the same place, every single day. Or dropping bombs where there is nothing, NOTHING. It's just... war, and bad things happen.

I'll admit that Milosevic provoked NATO, by not wanting to engage in any reasonable solution for Kosovo. By this point no one trusted Milosevic anything, so even-though Kosovo was part of Serbia, he managed to lose it...

My point is that world politics and history is a grey, complicated and ugly affair. It's really hard to understand full picture.
For example: my dad, brainwashed by Milosevic propaganda STOLE my vote to support Milosevic. After huge fight, he... did it again next time... Full control of media is really, really powerful...

I just wish for PEACE - no objective and goal (to me) could be worth mothers' grief that will be burying their sons. No matter the side...
I won't respond to any comments on this post, too painful relieving all those years...

i feel for you mate. I was in Croatia wearing a powder puff blue beret, saw villages and towns detroyed by their own inhabitants fighting aginst one another. Sights I never want to see again where people who had been neighbours for years before suddenly turning against one another. Absolutely horrific.
I served in many countries whilst in the army, was a part of the first Gulf War, went into Iraq and saw the results of convoys being bombed, again not sights I want to see again. Even saw things in Kenya which was supposedly at peace that defied that notion
Unfortunately the general population of Russia still have no idea what is actually happening in Ukraine, even now although it is filtering through slowly. Whether they can do anything about it is another matter though, Putins puppets are in complete control, sorry to say.

 

[Xdama]

A Putin-Macron call leaves France persuaded that Russia wants ‘control of all of Ukraine.’

On the call, the Russian president said that his goal, “the demilitarization and neutral status of Ukraine,” would be achieved “no matter what,” according to the Kremlin.

www.nytimes.com

 

[dm28997]

Going after the fossil fools oligarchy and associates. Some in the United States of America. DOJ involved. Wow

FACT SHEET: The United States Continues to Target Russian Oligarchs Enabling Putin’s War of Choice | The White House

Today, the United States, in coordination with Allies and partners, is targeting additional Russian elites and family members who continue supporting President Putin despite his brutal invasion of Ukraine. These individuals have enriched themselves at the expense of the Russian people, and some...

www.whitehouse.gov

 

[dm28997]

Going after the fossil fools oligarchy and associates. Some in the United States of America. DOJ involved. Wow

FACT SHEET: The United States Continues to Target Russian Oligarchs Enabling Putin’s War of Choice | The White House

Today, the United States, in coordination with Allies and partners, is targeting additional Russian elites and family members who continue supporting President Putin despite his brutal invasion of Ukraine. These individuals have enriched themselves at the expense of the Russian people, and some...

www.whitehouse.gov

Wonder if these people are involved in shorts.
Perhaps the illegal money can be find some good use.

 

[Xdama]

Ukraine authorities say seized Russian tanks don’t need to be declared on tax form | Ukraine | The Guardian

Corruption-fighting body urges citizens to ‘continue to defend the motherland’ while easing any concerns about ‘significant changes in the property status’

amp.theguardian.com

Sorry but had to post this

 

[MC3OZ]

Are you talking about Air USA?

Yes, I think they had around 4 planes that would be suitable...

I think they could retrofit the required hardware...

This is what they could use the planes for:-

https://twitter.com/x/status/1499390932457857030

 

[MC3OZ]

Yes, I think they had around 4 planes that would be suitable...

I think they could retrofit the required hardware...

This is what they could use the planes for:-

https://twitter.com/x/status/1499390932457857030

I can't quite find it now, but I've seen a twitter post about the Ukrainian army recapturing a border post, probably in the north...

Everything is related, that stuck Russian convoy probably needs a "relief convoy". The Ukrainians odiously need to do everything they can to stop that relief convoy getting there,

With the cities in the south are being overwhelmed, in part that might be because the priority is in the north.

If other Russian forces have to move back to the border area to try to help the "relief convoy" get through, that is more driving around and more fuel consumed. And again Ukraine has to try to stop those forces moving, any convoys stalled on roads are potential targets.

The other factor is, Ukraine air defences are holding up well, they are getting more air-defence equipment, which is probably at least as good as what they already have.

Everyday they shoot down 1-2 bombers, Russia doesn't have an unlimited supply of bomber or bomber pilots..

Word will get around the Russian military about how well the mission is going,

 

[Skipdd]

Interesting claim. Any opinions on its validity?
https://americanmilitarynews.com/2022/03/hackers-claim-to-have-taken-control-of-russian-spy-satellites/