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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
RobStark
Well-Known Member
The stories I've seen said Bakhmut or Donbas. It appears the Russians are trying to break the deadlock with airpower. It's probably another sign of their desperation that they are risking their aircraft to AA fire to try and help the ground troops. The losses show that Ukrainian AA is still working.
Sink ships that clearly belong to Turkey and that triggers Article 5. F-35s will be destroying everything Russian within hours.
The Ukrainians heard of the PanzerSpahWagon and took it a bit too literally
petit_bateau
Active Member
I'm not sure that is how the NATO Art 5 interpretation would work. An attack on Turkish civilian vessels in Ukraine waters (or alongside Ukraine territory) is definitely not an attack on the territory of a Nato member. And the defined sea areas very deliberately excluded the Black Sea (excepting, by my interpretation, the Turkish 12nm territorial waters within the Black Sea). If it were otherwise it would be (legally) very straightforward to organise convoys of NATO shipping to break the Russian blockade.
(imho ultimately Ukraine should become a NATO state, though I have a suspicion it is only likely to do so at the same time as Finland and Sweden also join. Which will be after this is over and Turkey/Hungary can no longer play both ends of the pitch.)
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Article 5
The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security .
Article 6 1
For the purpose of Article 5, an armed attack on one or more of the Parties is deemed to include an armed attack:- on the territory of any of the Parties in Europe or North America, on the Algerian Departments of France 2, on the territory of Turkey or on the Islands under the jurisdiction of any of the Parties in the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer;
- on the forces, vessels, or aircraft of any of the Parties, when in or over these territories or any other area in Europe in which occupation forces of any of the Parties were stationed on the date when the Treaty entered into force or the Mediterranean Sea or the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer.
Regarding Russian aviation losses I may be misunderstanding the date, but yesterday's Ukraine General Staff sitrep did not include the losses being discussed. It did however include a truly staggering and increasing ongoing Russian KIA loss rate of 910 which is in keeping with the 9 tanks and 23 APC losses noted. That is also plausible given that the Russians are advancing across Ukraine defensive positions in the Bakhmut area.
(Perhaps these aviation losses will turn up in tomorrows data, or maybe they are older ones).
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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Lt.Gen (ret) Mark Hertling estimates it will take 6-8 mths before M1 Abrams reaches the front in Ukraine. He also says Leopard2 could be operational in 1-2 mths. It's all about the time.
"Get there the firstest with the mostest" -- Nathan Bedford Forrest
Right now, some U.S. Army logistics Officer is calculating the amount of ammo they'll need to provision for the Ukrainian counterattack. My estimate is 80,000 rds of APFSDS needed for victory. At ~100 lbs per round, that's about 40K tons of ammo. That will require about 1,000 truck loads to deliver that ammo to the front. And that's just the main gun ammo.
U.S. Logistics will be required to make this work, on top of everything that European partners are already planning. This will require a major effort.
petit_bateau
Active Member
There are apparently a lot of French bridges going in to replace damaged ones. Also from Sweden, Norway, Chzech. I have read that these are 100-tonne rated but I don't read that in any of the press releases. However if one goes to the company website the photos make it quite clear that they can take a 70t MBT.
Norwegian and French bridges installed in Ukraine - Bridge Design & Engineering (Bd & e)
Installation is under way of temporary bridges designed to reopen routes in Ukraine.
France hands over bridges to Ukraine to restore transport links
France has handed over three bridges to Ukraine to restore transport connections in the Chernihiv region.
mil.in.ua
France will hand over 36 prefabricated bridges to Ukraine
Ukraine agreed with France on the transfer of 36 prefabricated bridges. They will be installed on the site of the bridges destroyed during the hostilities.
babel.ua
MODULAR BRIDGES - Matière TP
All our modular solutions are designed with a single watchword: "containerisable" in order to reduce installation times and therefore construction site times.
www.matiere-tp.com
You may be right. I guess the Tropic of Cancer clause is why the Falklands War didn't trigger Article 5.
The air losses are recorded the day before this one. I also note that the Russians not only lost 910 personnel, but also 23 APVs, 9 tanks, and 23 soft vehicles. The Russians tried something and got hit hard.
If you want to see the losses for a specific day, this is a good site for the data
https://www.mil.gov.ua/en/
This is good for pattern analysis
Tracking Russia's losses in Ukraine
The Russians are averaging over 5000 dead a week now. That's staggering losses for an army with about 100K-200K troops committed. I've read that Wagner has essentially burned through all the prisoners they could get into uniform and they are essentially a spent force at this point.
The vehicle losses haven't been high lately. Russia has mostly been holding back vehicles and sending in unsupported infantry. But just looking at the vehicle losses for the war.
The Russians started the war with about 3000 active gun artillery, a bit over 1000 rocket artillery systems active, about 3600 tanks active, and somewhere a bit over 10,000 APVs. They had a lot of everything in reserve, but it's obvious they have tapped their reserves pretty deeply. The above losses probably don't count equipment that is still in Russian possession but is useless due to mechanical breakdowns. Considering how bad Russian maintenance is and how some of that equipment has been in heavy combat for almost a year, a lot of it is worn out or pretty close to worn out.
That's especially true of the gun artillery. Barrels have a limited life and very few of their guns had new barrels at the beginning of this war. Russian artillery has been reported to be horribly inaccurate, a "good" artillery crew is one that can take out an enemy vehicle with 200 rounds or less. The inaccuracy is probably partially due to poor training and/or primitive aiming equipment, but it's also due to barrel wear. A barrel warped a couple of degrees will still shoot, but the round won't land anywhere near it's intended target.
The Ukrainians have been using the NATO artillery so hard that they have been wearing out their barrels too, but NATO has spare barrels and they have been replacing them in rehab shops in eastern Europe. Most Ukrainian artillery crews using western artillery hit their target within 3 rounds. Western artillery is designed to be efficient with ammunition use.
There are apparently a lot of French bridges going in to replace damaged ones. Also from Sweden, Norway, Chzech. I have read that these are 100-tonne rated but I don't read that in any of the press releases. However if one goes to the company website the photos make it quite clear that they can take a 70t MBT.
Norwegian and French bridges installed in Ukraine - Bridge Design & Engineering (Bd & e)
Installation is under way of temporary bridges designed to reopen routes in Ukraine.www.bridgeweb.com
France hands over bridges to Ukraine to restore transport links
France has handed over three bridges to Ukraine to restore transport connections in the Chernihiv region.
France will hand over 36 prefabricated bridges to Ukraine
Ukraine agreed with France on the transfer of 36 prefabricated bridges. They will be installed on the site of the bridges destroyed during the hostilities.
MODULAR BRIDGES - Matière TP
All our modular solutions are designed with a single watchword: "containerisable" in order to reduce installation times and therefore construction site times.
They were probably designed with Leopards, Abrams, and Challengers in mind. Bridges like that are much more important on offense than on defense. That's another indication the west is giving Ukraine what it needs to go over onto offense.
There is also "heute" on zdf.de , additionally there is ntv.de , which is a commercial news channel and there is orf.at , which is the Austrian public TV channel. There are probably more, but I personally don't use news streaming channels that often
petit_bateau
Active Member
Confirmed that Germany will itself send 14 Leopard 2 to Ukraine plus authorise release of other countries
www.theguardian.com
===
Reading between the lines over the last few months there may not have been a fully joined up command on the Ukraine side in the Bakhmut-Soledar area.
kyivindependent.com
kyivindependent.com
===
Oh, and UK not always covering itself in glory. Frankly this stinks :
www.theguardian.com
Germany announces it will supply Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine
Olaf Scholz confirms decision after weeks of pressure, with Berlin providing 14 tanks and allowing partners to re-export others
www.theguardian.com
===
Reading between the lines over the last few months there may not have been a fully joined up command on the Ukraine side in the Bakhmut-Soledar area.
Ukraine war latest: Kyiv expects battle for Donbas to intensify in February-March amid Russia's desperate attempt to capture the region
Key developments on Jan. 23: * Ukraine's intelligence: Russia to intensify Donbas offensive in February-March * Poland says it will seek Germany's approval to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine, but ready to do so regardless of Berlin's will * Germany says it hasn't received Poland's request to...
kyivindependent.com
With the loss of Soledar, Ukrainian positions in Bakhmut jeopardized
The dramatic fight for Soledar, part of the Battle of Bakhmut, is over — although Ukraine's leadership is still reluctant to acknowledge the loss. As a result of a localized offensive operation in January, Russian forces managed to gnaw through Ukrainian defenses and, after fierce urban...
kyivindependent.com
===
Oh, and UK not always covering itself in glory. Frankly this stinks :
Labour asks why Treasury unit let sanctioned oligarch bring UK libel case
Key Putin ally, who founded Wagner mercenaries, attempted to ‘subvert sanctions and silence journalist’
www.theguardian.com
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
Could that be a Griffin as in the Swedish JAS 39 Griffin (Gripen in Swedish)?... Griffins supposedly have the cat body of a lion, and the one pictured here seems to be a leopard... But given recent events the leopard part does seem pretty self-explanatory... Maybe Sweden will transfer some Gripens, and Norway, Denmark and maybe even Germany will cover Sweden with their Air Forces like that other country did with Slovakia when Slovakia transfered their Mig-29s...
EDIT: Or maybe it's an American Eagle as in the F-15...
EDIT 2: Remembered that the F-16 was/is called the Fighting Falcon... And the F-16 does seem to have been the default bet this far...
Credit goes to (in Swedish):
cornucopia.se
EDIT: Or maybe it's an American Eagle as in the F-15...
EDIT 2: Remembered that the F-16 was/is called the Fighting Falcon... And the F-16 does seem to have been the default bet this far...
Credit goes to (in Swedish):
UPPDATERAS: Extrema ryska förluster, rekordsiffror döda - Leoparderna släpps fria av Tyskland, skickar moderna 2A6 - nya terrorbombningar av Kupiansk
Ryssland tog extrema förluster igår med rekord i antalet dödade på en dag. Tyskland släppte slutligen loss leoparderna och skickar själva fjorton av den moderna Leopard 2A6. Ryssland terrorbombar återigen Kupiansk.
cornucopia.se
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petit_bateau
Active Member
An overview of tank supplies to Ukraine right now:
Confirmed:
14 Challenger 2
14 Leopard 2A4
14 Leopard 2A6
Awaiting full confirmation:
4 Leopard 2A6
20-53 Leopard 2A4
30 Abrams M1
8 Leopard 2A4
14 Leopard 2A4/6
Discussing:
18 Leopard 2A6
6 Leopard 2A5/7
Also an unknown amount of
Leclerc.
per
From German announcements:
The goal is to quickly assemble two tank battalions with Leopard 2 tanks for Ukraine. As a first step, Germany will provide a company of 14 Leopard-2 A6 tanks from Bundeswehr stocks. Other European partners will in turn hand over Leopard-2 tanks. Training of the Ukrainian crews is to begin rapidly in Germany. In addition to training, the package will also include logistics, ammunition and maintenance of the systems.
Two tank battalions would be 2 x 44 = 88 Leopards. If one adds up the Confirmed + Awaiting + Discussing that gets to approximately that amount. To which should be added 14 Challengers + 30 Abrams + ?? Leclerc. All with the corresponding logistics etc. There are indications of further quantities to follow but that seems to depend on progressing tanks through maintenance/etc cycles and training.
Confirmed:
14 Challenger 214 Leopard 2A414 Leopard 2A6Awaiting full confirmation:
4 Leopard 2A6 20-53 Leopard 2A430 Abrams M18 Leopard 2A4 14 Leopard 2A4/6Discussing:
18 Leopard 2A66 Leopard 2A5/7Also an unknown amount of
Leclerc. per
From German announcements:
The goal is to quickly assemble two tank battalions with Leopard 2 tanks for Ukraine. As a first step, Germany will provide a company of 14 Leopard-2 A6 tanks from Bundeswehr stocks. Other European partners will in turn hand over Leopard-2 tanks. Training of the Ukrainian crews is to begin rapidly in Germany. In addition to training, the package will also include logistics, ammunition and maintenance of the systems.
Two tank battalions would be 2 x 44 = 88 Leopards. If one adds up the Confirmed + Awaiting + Discussing that gets to approximately that amount. To which should be added 14 Challengers + 30 Abrams + ?? Leclerc. All with the corresponding logistics etc. There are indications of further quantities to follow but that seems to depend on progressing tanks through maintenance/etc cycles and training.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Don't forget Morocco!
"Morocco has sent tanks to Ukraine to boost its counter-offensive against Russian forces, Algerian news outlet Menadefense has revealed. Nearly 20 T-72B tanks were reportedly supplied to Kyiv's forces, making Rabat the first African nation to send armored vehicles to the war-torn country." -- a day ago
Morocco sends 20 modernized T-72 tanks to Ukraine as Germany ... www.military.africa › Army
This is becoming the foreign-aid version of a pot-luck dinner. All you can eat, Putine!
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
If only the people in charge in Marocco cared as much about their own population...
They currently only have a score of 37/100 from Freedom House...
freedomhouse.org
They currently only have a score of 37/100 from Freedom House...
Morocco: Freedom in the World 2022 Country Report | Freedom House
See the Freedom in the World 2022 score and learn about democracy and freedom in Morocco.
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
Hopefully Germany concluded that it's a lot better to send the Leopards directly to Ukraine. Thailand currently only has a score of 29/100 from Freedom House...
Don't know when the Ukrainian tank deal was made with Thailand. Hopefully it happened back when Thailand was a lot more democratic...
Thailand: Freedom in the World 2022 Country Report | Freedom House
See the Freedom in the World 2022 score and learn about democracy and freedom in Thailand.
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JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I don't think Ukraine really cares where they get weapons from at the moment.
Anyone want to make a prediction on what Russia does next? No change in posture, further conscription soon, etc?
Getting harder for Putin. He does not want to draw more of his population into his war, particularly city folks like in Moscow and St. Petersburg where many so far have been largely able to escape reality. But if he wants any chance to mitigate his coming losses with the Ukrainian counteroffensive likely the spring and into the rest of the year, he would have to increase conscription/mobilization.
Even then Russian soldiers will remain poorly prepared/equipped. The current and potential resources in the West are much deeper.
Getting harder for Putin. He does not want to draw more of his population into his war, particularly city folks like in Moscow and St. Petersburg where many so far have been largely able to escape reality. But if he wants any chance to mitigate his coming losses with the Ukrainian counteroffensive likely the spring and into the rest of the year, he would have to increase conscription/mobilization.
Even then Russian soldiers will remain poorly prepared/equipped. The current and potential resources in the West are much deeper.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Egypt had free, open and fair parliamentary elections in 2012 after the Mubarak government collapsed.
The Muslim Brotherhood won 47% of the seats.
Islamist parties more radical than the Muslim Brotherhood won 23% of the seats.
Iran has a score of 14/100 according to freedomhouse.org
What do you suppose Morocco's freedomhouse score would be 4 years after the monarchy is removed and a government is elected in free, open, and fair elections?
petit_bateau
Active Member
Tunisia is the better comparison methinks, so 71/100.
Also it depends to what extent people like Putin and his fellow travellers such as Erdogan and Assad (and El-Sisi) are emboldened to cause mischief.
Tunisia: Freedom in the World 2022 Country Report | Freedom House
See the Freedom in the World 2022 score and learn about democracy and freedom in Tunisia.
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