If you want to post a series of tweets, click on every second tweet and post that url. for example, a thread of 1,2,3,4,5,6 you can post 2,4,6 and all will be included.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
bobby g
Member
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
Well here's the actual denial for anyone interested:
mars_or_bust
Member
Yeah, but Elon did not specify here whose space - Ukranian or Russian ;-)
In any case this is an odd story, and to be honest, I don't know if I can believe Elon on this one. He might be trying to backtrack his Ukraine involvement, realizing it was one big screwup on his side - I hope this is the case.
He did say, for example, that he contacted on numerous occasions the key actors in this conflict. This would of course need to involve also Russia, and there is only one person who decides there - Putin. Perhaps he talked to Putin's aides, who conveyed Putin's red lines - which he is naively and idiotically posted as the most tone-death twitter poll ever.
So I've been sitting and watching the battlefield unfold and looking back at events and thunking. Thunking has led to the following conclusions:
The constrained fuel supplies will dramatically impact all mechanized operations in Crimea, Kherson and Zap (for short- apologies). I had, previously, been unaware that UKR had severed the rail connections from Zap to Donetsk (or perhaps it is just in southern Donetsk). Anyway, logistics wise there is a clear break between these provinces and Donetsk and Luhansk. Some fuel may arrive by trucks and tankers but operations are constrained. That lends some weight to more operations in the south this winter and maybe that long anticipated third front.
The northern front is a long line of activity with UKR probing virtually the entire way from Troitske to outside Lysychansk, nearly 100 miles. They will rest/regroup/probe. Once they find the weak point they'll move. Multiple opportunities exist for encirclement but I think they deliberately waited...they had reinforcements ready to take Svatove for a couple of weeks. I think they waited til they could get Russia to commit reserves to that point. Russia has been rushing troops up there- wagner and mobiks. So I suspect they'll attack either north or south of there and attempt an encirclement and maybe doing another one with an escape hole to allow simple attacks on retreating forces. We'll see. It looks to me like a classic case of UKR pinning russian forces again. But russia has to respond to Svatove because it is the gateway to Starobilsk and that spot is the key hub for everything in Luhansk. If russia loses starobilsk it is very hard to hold anything in that province. When they respond UKR will encircle, rinse and repeat.
In the meantime while that is going on (say 1 more week) they'll start ramping up activity in the south so as to force russian motorized units to consume fuel they cant replace and then...when the time is right, hit them hard in the south. Russia could soon be encircled in two pockets west of the Dniper.
Then that would be the ideal time to launch the third front, if it is to happen.
All subject to modification due to weather, etc etc. But from my armchair that seems to be about what is going to happen. I would say that the russian attacks make it likely for the USA to supply systems to finish taking out that rail line on the Kerch bridge. All they need at this point is just 30 rounds, hit it every other day for 2 months and the logistics for Crimea/Kherson/Zap become bleak in the dead of winter.
The constrained fuel supplies will dramatically impact all mechanized operations in Crimea, Kherson and Zap (for short- apologies). I had, previously, been unaware that UKR had severed the rail connections from Zap to Donetsk (or perhaps it is just in southern Donetsk). Anyway, logistics wise there is a clear break between these provinces and Donetsk and Luhansk. Some fuel may arrive by trucks and tankers but operations are constrained. That lends some weight to more operations in the south this winter and maybe that long anticipated third front.
The northern front is a long line of activity with UKR probing virtually the entire way from Troitske to outside Lysychansk, nearly 100 miles. They will rest/regroup/probe. Once they find the weak point they'll move. Multiple opportunities exist for encirclement but I think they deliberately waited...they had reinforcements ready to take Svatove for a couple of weeks. I think they waited til they could get Russia to commit reserves to that point. Russia has been rushing troops up there- wagner and mobiks. So I suspect they'll attack either north or south of there and attempt an encirclement and maybe doing another one with an escape hole to allow simple attacks on retreating forces. We'll see. It looks to me like a classic case of UKR pinning russian forces again. But russia has to respond to Svatove because it is the gateway to Starobilsk and that spot is the key hub for everything in Luhansk. If russia loses starobilsk it is very hard to hold anything in that province. When they respond UKR will encircle, rinse and repeat.
In the meantime while that is going on (say 1 more week) they'll start ramping up activity in the south so as to force russian motorized units to consume fuel they cant replace and then...when the time is right, hit them hard in the south. Russia could soon be encircled in two pockets west of the Dniper.
Then that would be the ideal time to launch the third front, if it is to happen.
All subject to modification due to weather, etc etc. But from my armchair that seems to be about what is going to happen. I would say that the russian attacks make it likely for the USA to supply systems to finish taking out that rail line on the Kerch bridge. All they need at this point is just 30 rounds, hit it every other day for 2 months and the logistics for Crimea/Kherson/Zap become bleak in the dead of winter.
BitJam
Active Member
Elon is a smart guy. He is often right when others are wrong so he speaks his mind right or wrong. He is human and makes mistakes. I can totally believe he screwed up the Russian appeasement tweets all by himself without being influenced by Putin. OTOH, I find it very hard to believe that Elon got duped by Putin into making that series of tweets.
I can quickly think of half a dozen bad/stupid/wrong things he has said that were likely entirely of his own making. He doesn't need outside influence for this. In fact, if he got outside influence he would probably strongly resist it.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Nato warns Russian sabotage on Western targets 'could trigger Article 5' | 2022/10/11
www.telegraph.co.uk
Nato warns Russian sabotage on Western targets 'could trigger Article 5'
If the defence clause was activated the alliance's members would consider any sabotage an attack on them
www.telegraph.co.uk
Last edited:
The Russians haven't committed their air force to the degree they committed their armor so the air force can't be degraded to the degree their armor has. It will probably remain more intact, but it's been proven to be pretty ineffective.
Since this kicked off I have not had an opportunity to talk privately with my Finnish contacts. So the comments I can make are based on previous understandings from them and from many others, plus observing what has happened publicly since. My comments therefore are not really from a Finnish perspective.
1. Everybody now understands that you are either inside NATO or outside NATO. Everyone can now see that the alliance umbrella has no grey zone: you either receive mutual protection or you don't.
2. In Sweden and Finland, all the "lets just be friends" category of "neutral is good" middle-pathers have had their illusions shattered. This also applies to many of the Russia-lovers, and the Putin-lovers (not quite the same things) in those countries. Many of the people who were once in those two groups have also looked at my point #1 and rapidly decided they want under the NATO umbrella. Hence the very strong support for very rapidly joining NATO. *
3. The EU gets this as well. The cadre of variously-different 'neutral' countries in EU have received and understood the message that they need to be quiet whilst the realpolitik is done. This applies especially to Ireland, Malta, Cyprus, Austria and in a slightly different way to Denmark. The silence from them is most noticeable and welcome.
4. The Baltic rim states all know full well they hang together or they hang apart; and it is demonstrable to all of them that they must link arms tightly so as to manage the Baltic state called Germany. Their arms are linked very firmly now and growing tighter daily, most especially at the eastern side.
********
5. But some people never miss an opportunity to advance their own agendas however crudely. In this respect both Orban in Hungary and Erdogan in Turkey are blatantly doing this. My personal expectation is that both Orban and Erdogan will stretch their blocking tactics out for as long as they can, ideally in their eyes until after the active phase of the conflict is over, and then still continue to block. All the time they will seek to extort concessions and blackmail everyone for their own political ends - they are shameless, predictable, crude, and realy don't care. I hope that this approach can be demonstrated to them as being counterproductive, but that too will require firmness and solidarity.
********
6. Others are also seeking to advance their own agendas. I personally am most ashamed by the UK's trash-talking of the EU and the way that the Cons keep trying to wedge-out the ex-Soviet Baltic states (Lithuania/Latvia/Estonia) as well as of course Poland.
7. All the adults now get it that the very hard work done in both NATO and in EU since 2014 in a co-operative and interlinked manner has just about gotten Europe to the point where it can withstand the Russian pressure and thereby this has enabled the effective support to Ukraine**. Without that, none of this would have been possible, and Ukraine simply would not have had the opportunity to demostrate its own bravery and democratic ambition. There is an understanding that comes out of this, that if the West/free-world is going to step forwards coherently in Asia-Pacific then the US (which cannot do so on its own) needs to understand that if Europe is to stand more fully on its own feet so as to free up more resources to pivot to Asia, then the vehicle for that is the EU. Basically at some point the USA needs to stop trying to **** that EU effort up, and tell its stooge (the UK) to also stop trying to **** that up. This of course is complicated because the people in the US who were trying to **** that up were the people backing Brexit and seeking to use the UK as the wedge. So they've really screwed the pooch now. The EU of course understands this, they are not naive. I hope a way can be found or there will not be enough bandwidth to handle the Asia-Pacific.
There is a lot more I could say but is this enough. You'll have seen lots of EU grand projects accelerating in Eastern Europe - rail links, ports, pipelines, roads, renewables, grid. Very large sums of money are showing that the EU is staying the course, even more so than the 2014-2022 period demonstrated. And then of course Ukraine must be integrated after this phase is over.
* These two categories of people exist in many other countries in NATO / EU and likewise many have gone through the same mental resets. I see this as quite a widespread phenomenen but I get very solid feedback from especially places like Greece and Germany. They now understand that together really is better.
** The support since the recent (2022) cycle of Russian invasion has of course come from the wider coalition of the free world, including Japan, South Korea, and Australia. But those wider countries weren't anywhere near as directly involved in the close-in work done in the 2014-2022 period, simply because they are not in either NATO or EU.
Here are two useful press updates on the Orban & Erdogan blockers:
Hungary and Turkey still blocking Sweden and Finland from NATO
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has been in Ankara for talks, with Sweden's new Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson due next week.www.euronews.com
Another great analysis. I wonder what Erdogan and Orban will do if Russia falls into turmoil.
The Russians don't like to talk about foriegn help, but at least one German company was a subcontractor.
Sanctions? What Sanctions? German Company to Help Build Bridge to Crimea
Russia lacks a lot of expertise for this sort of thing.
For this purpose I don't see that as a particular problem.
It appears Germany kept quiet until they were ready to move the goods rather than announce and wait until the bureaucracy to get the equipment ready.
Kamil Galleev had an interesting perspective on the world that Musk and other western entrepreneurs live in and how that environment doesn't exist in many other places in the world.
Thread by @kamilkazani on Thread Reader App
"Putin has accepted Thailand's invitation to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) summit in Bangkok next month.."
www.bangkokpost.com
Putin to attend Apec summit
Russian President Vladimir Putin has accepted Thailand
"Putin has accepted Thailand's invitation to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) summit in Bangkok next month.."
Putin to attend Apec summit
Russian President Vladimir Putin has accepted Thailand
I've heard rumors that he's afraid to leave Russia for fear there will be a coup while he's gone. I guess he got over it.
Your last item about the world of western entrepreneurs needs to be brought to Elon’s attention; he has GOT to see that; it needs to be among all he thinks about to make the world a better place.
lolachampcar
Well-Known Member
It is views like this from outside "my" world that help me better understand my world. I've worked in countries outside the US and am reminded of the relative lack of class and status barriers to success in the US. I guess this is part of this non-violent environment.
At the same time, if you widen the lens you have a US that is a non-violent entity that promotes a non-violent society (as described in the piece above - not the literal definition of non-violent) only to go from passive to "UltraViolence" (credit to Stanley K). We spend a lot of money on our military and tend to use it a lot.
It is a very odd (and helpful) view of the non-violent approaches to societies. It is also another reason to help Ukraine without imposing our ideas of what they should do with their country or how they should, or should not, compromise.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
When all is said and done including reconstruction the West will pour in ~$1T into Ukraine.
Of course there will be strings attached.
We will demand basic human rights, a democratic government, and a real concerted effort to reduce corruption.
We didn't incur the cost and possible nuclear strikes on Western cities in order to for Ukraine to be a mini Russia. Just independent of Russia.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Putin should pack an extra bag for an extended stay. Is Thailand a member of the International Court of Justice? We know that Russia is not. This may be his exit strategy.
X Fan
Active Member
people dropping out of buildings along with unexplained suicides probably gave him comfort to leave.
Thailand has multistory buildings with windows as well.
I linked a news story to this thread from Business Insider and it got removed because it was from "unreliable source". I find that strange. BI is a media which has over 500 employees. It is not some sketchy blog.
Of course that article may or may not be wrong, but I find it strange to delete it.
The article was about why Starlink is not working in the occupied areas.
Of course that article may or may not be wrong, but I find it strange to delete it.
The article was about why Starlink is not working in the occupied areas.
Olena Zelenska
in action, as she always is:I imagine we all know she is Zelensky's script writer. Since every pitch is always tone-perfect for the audience this is no exception. FWIW, I saw it in Le Monde that linked to the tweet.
If it is the one I saw, it was a hit piece. I’ve seen it reported in the main investment thread that BIs owner has been documented to have posted many untrue articles about Tesla and Elon.
That said, what caught my attention with this one is that some prominent Twitter posters who are usually reliable sources of information, have linked to it and even amp’ed it. For example Michael MacKay wrote a really nasty tweet, which made me start to question his motives. I would be interested in others’ take on this. I am not going to link to it, but will copy the first part below. I saw @heltok ’s post yesterday about Russia possibly using Elon’s tweets to drive wedges against Ukraine and plant misinformation. And I saw some other perspectives here as well. I’m trying to discern truth from propaganda. My gut is that it is some truth, mostly propaganda. What I can’t figure out then, is why otherwise reliable information sources went rabid and what to do about it
Michael MacKay. @mhmck on Twitter
“Pro-Russian oligarch Elon Musk blocked Ukraine from using Starlink in Crimea.
Earlier, after amplifying propaganda of the Russian fascist regime, Musk disabled Starlink to hinder the counter-offensive by Ukrainian defenders who are liberating Luhansk and Kherson regions.”
Has Starlink even been active in Crimea so far?
Makes sense that it wouldn't have been, since the area has been under occupation. I mean, how would they get the antennas there without them falling into Russian hands?
So.. to disable something, it means it would be enabled first. Do we have any info about this?
Similar threads
