Russia/Ukraine conflict

[iPlug]

It's next to impossible to formulate how/why Putin would stop if he gets to bite off more of Ukraine. Not just more of Ukraine at a later date - more specifically, in terms of "ethnic" Russians in other countries in east Europe - many of them were installed decades ago during Russia's continued colonial methodology...

It's most unfortunate, but the only thing Putin respects is power. With this topic we're beating a dead horse, but it's a zombie horse.

 

[navguy12]

I cannot help but laugh at the American posters who want a "fair" vote for Crimea, when their own electoral system is being compromised by the day with trumpers who gauge electoral integrity by the winner and actively circumvent the courts when they cannot compromise them.

It will be quite the irony if UKR becomes a functioning democracy and the USA degenerates into a fascist autocracy a la Russia

Your observation reminded me of this upcoming SCOTUS case:

The most terrifying case of all is about to be heard by the US supreme court | Steven Donziger

If the court upholds the rogue ‘Independent State Legislature’ theory, it would put the US squarely on the path to authoritarianism

www.theguardian.com

 

[Tiger]

Good to have honest/constructive discussions here with the vast majority of participants.

In the interest of reporting events of both sides, some may have heard:

United States intelligence agencies believe parts of the Ukrainian government authorized the car bomb attack near Moscow in August that killed Daria Dugina

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/05/us/politics/ukraine-russia-dugina-assassination.html

We discussed before if this would be morally just for Ukraine to do. West is not condoning this. Would argue any way we look at the big picture, Ukraine moral high ground remains >>> Russia.

Nytimes is under Russia's influence, don't believe it (nytimes).

https://twitter.com/x/status/1577815960798392322

 

[stopcrazypp]

And this lies the problem. We are pretty sure Russia wouldn't even consider the compromise Elon is suggesting. Ukraine is shutting down anything Elon has to say. People hoping for Russia's unconditional surrender is laughable. Maybe if Ukraine points their non-existent nukes at a few cities in Russia then perhaps there's a chance.

No one is naïve enough to believe in Russia unconditionally surrendering or suggesting that is what will happen, all people are expecting is Ukraine continually pushing Russia back until they are out of Ukraine.

The only outcome I see if we don't escalate into WW3 or any kind of nuclear exchange is keep fighting for a few years until Putin dies and Russia reassess. This is perhaps the best case scenario.

 

[Tiger]

How can a libertarian think Russia is not at (grave) fault? How does Russia in any shape or form agree with libertarianism?

Smells ...

 

[lolachampcar]

However everything after the invasion started was nothing but stupidity. So we are now all hoping this stupid person will one day wake up and do what is best for his country while sacrificing his own power and admit stupidity...kind of a stretch.

Putin does not strike me as having had a stupid attack. Instead, I think about how his approach would have worked out if the last US election had gone the other way. The pressure the Ukrainian operation would have put on NATO would have given the x a reason to back out of NATO which would likely have spelled the end of a functioning NATO. Combine that with quickly taking Kiev in a Crimea kinda way and the whole complexion would be vastly different.

I would think it would take a good bit of time to set all that Russia has done in motion and thus likely initiated during the previous US administration which was subservient to Putin. Timing is everything and perhaps Putin just missed by a tad bit. That tad bit will likely be his undoing. Basically, he had a good hand but lost on the "River".

 

[Singuy]

Putin does not strike me as having had a stupid attack. Instead, I think about how his approach would have worked out if the last US election had gone the other way. The pressure the Ukrainian operation would have put on NATO would have given the x a reason to back out of NATO which would likely have spelled the end of a functioning NATO. Combine that with quickly taking Kiev in a Crimea kinda way and the whole complexion would be vastly different.

I would think it would take a good bit of time to set all that Russia has done in motion and thus likely initiated during the previous US administration which was subservient to Putin. Timing is everything and perhaps Putin just missed by a tad bit. That tad bit will likely be his undoing. Basically, he had a good hand but lost on the "River".

His prewar stuff is nothing but brilliant. His execution despite not reading the room very well got him into this mess. Prior to all the weapon support and Ukrainians were not very well collected, they had a chance to negotiate for the Donbas region and Crimea. However their cockiness landed them a cake with poop filling blowing up in their face.

 

[SageBrush]

His prewar stuff is nothing but brilliant.

Brilliant in the eyes of fools who could not see through the lie that 100k troops massing on the UKr border was a prelude to invasion.

 

[MC3OZ]

The underlying point I am trying to make is that the rise of any given new weapon and/or weapons platform and/or weapons system does not necessarily make the old one unattractive or unusable or unnecessary or uneconomic.

While that is true, this war has confirmed the emergence of Drones as a very important weapon, likely to become increasingly important.

One consideration is it costs a lot of money to train pilots, good fighter/bomber pilots are in short, supply, planes are expensive to build, operate and maintain.

Drones come in all types and sizes some of them cheap. The will probably not replace planes, but I could see some air-forces downsizing the fleet of planes and investing in more drones.

The next step is anti-drone weapons, the challenge is economic, the cost of locating and destroying a drone should be no more than the cost of the drone.

 

[Singuy]

Brilliant in the eyes of fools who could not see through the lie that 100k troops massing on the UKr border was a prelude to invasion.

Sure fooled Zelenski and that's all it mattered.

Which is crazy since it's not like Russia haven't been hostile to Ukr for the past 7 years....

 

[iPlug]

Zelensky very likely was well aware the invasion was going to happen. He had to cast doubt domestically until it actually happened to avoid panic and maximize Ukraine’s chances.

This goes in the category of honorable deception/misdirection.

 

[Singuy]

Zelensky very likely was well aware the invasion was going to happen. He had to sell it the other way until it actually happened to avoid panic and maximize Ukraine’s chances.

This goes in the category of honorable deception/misdirection.

What? It was months long time of accumulation of troops and warning from the US. There could have been so many things they could do to prevent lives lost...because panic will happen...especially if you are caught off guard.

What would cause more panic?

"Russia seems to be an aggressor and invasion is likely in the next few months. People need be prepared for evacuation efforts into neighboring countries, we also need all able fighting age men to start training with Nato"

or

my neighbor's building just got bombed wtf?....

 

[stopcrazypp]

Zelensky very likely was well aware the invasion was going to happen. He had to cast doubt domestically until it actually happened to avoid panic and maximize Ukraine’s chances.

This goes in the category of honorable deception/misdirection.

Yeah, I remember a report saying that was a consideration.

 

[navguy12]

What? It was months long time of accumulation of troops and warning from the US. There could have been so many things they could do to prevent lives lost...because panic will happen...especially if you are caught off guard.

What would cause more panic?

"Russia seems to be an aggressor and invasion is likely in the next few months. People need be prepared for evacuation efforts into neighboring countries, we also need all able fighting age men to start training with Nato"

or

my neighbor's building just got bombed wtf?....

I’m trying to articulate a logical sounding rebuttal, but its late and I’m tired…

If Ukraine was as unprepared as you imply, the Russian campaign to conquer the whole country would have indeed been the three day rout that was being touted by some Russian controlled media sources.

 

[Singuy]

I’m trying to articulate a logical sounding rebuttal, but its late and I’m tired…

If Ukraine was as unprepared as you imply, the Russian campaign to conquer the whole country would have indeed been the three day rout that was being touted by some Russian controlled media sources.

Oh it could easily been a 3 day thing but then mud and logistical troubles gave Ukrainians the time they needed to at least make a defensive line. Ukraine's preparation was absolute trash, but Russia couldn't execute if their life depended on it. The actual land of Ukraine completely destroyed Russia's early days. You didn't have to fight much, just wait until their tanks run out of gas.

 

[stopcrazypp]

What? It was months long time of accumulation of troops and warning from the US. There could have been so many things they could do to prevent lives lost...because panic will happen...especially if you are caught off guard.

What would cause more panic?

"Russia seems to be an aggressor and invasion is likely in the next few months. People need be prepared for evacuation efforts into neighboring countries, we also need all able fighting age men to start training with Nato"

or

my neighbor's building just got bombed wtf?....

You are forgetting the economic angle. If they started sounding the alarm to the public months ago, Ukraine's economy would have cratered much earlier, which would leave them with a lot less resources to fight.

Instead they did their preparations behind the scenes quietly, and as pointed out, it worked (they were able to stop Russia from a rapid siege of Kyiv). While Russia's incompetence played a role, if you look at some of the early exchanges, for example they were actually prepared for the airport siege due to CIA info.

 

[iPlug]

Zelensky has been interviewed about this and analysts have said the same.

Referring to February 24, Zelensky maintained "we understood that this day would happen". He said one of the surprises was not this but the barbarity of the Russians/torture. He explains how not revealing the certainty of imminent invasion helped to mitigate the damages of their hybrid war.


An couple examples:
"You can’t simply say to me, “Listen, you should start to prepare people now and tell them they need to put away money, they need to store up food.” If we had communicated that — and that is what some people wanted, who I will not name — then I would have been losing $7 billion a month since last October, and at the moment when the Russians did attack, they would have taken us in three days."

"And that’s what happened when the invasion started — we were as strong as we could be. Some of our people left, but most of them stayed here, they fought for their homes. And as cynical as it may sound, those are the people who stopped everything."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/08/16/zelensky-interview-transcript/

 

[navguy12]

Oh it could easily been a 3 day thing but then mud and logistical troubles gave Ukrainians the time they needed to at least make a defensive line. Ukraine's preparation was absolute trash, but Russia couldn't execute if their life depended on it. The actual land of Ukraine completely destroyed Russia's early days. You didn't have to fight much, just wait until their tanks run out of gas.

I’ll pin what your argument is; I have no data to dispute it.

Perhaps Ukraine knew what was about to happen and was buying as much time as possible (as it turns out, waiting until winter worked out for them in the long run).

That said, once the war is over and the history books are written (after a few years for perspective), perhaps this line of thought can be discussed some more.

 

[Singuy]

Zelensky has been interviewed about this and analysts have said the same.

Referring to February 24, Zelensky maintained "we understood that this day would happen". He said one of the surprises was not this but the barbarity of the Russians/torture. He explains how not revealing the certainty of imminent invasion helped to mitigate the damages of their hybrid war.


An couple examples:
"You can’t simply say to me, “Listen, you should start to prepare people now and tell them they need to put away money, they need to store up food.” If we had communicated that — and that is what some people wanted, who I will not name — then I would have been losing $7 billion a month since last October, and at the moment when the Russians did attack, they would have taken us in three days."

"And that’s what happened when the invasion started — we were as strong as we could be. Some of our people left, but most of them stayed here, they fought for their homes. And as cynical as it may sound, those are the people who stopped everything."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/08/16/zelensky-interview-transcript/

This is a politician being a politician. He is claiming he will lose 50% of his countries' GDP by preparing for war? Ukraine haven't even lost that much in GDP 8 months into the war getting bombed out.

 

[elasalle]

What? It was months long time of accumulation of troops and warning from the US. There could have been so many things they could do to prevent lives lost...because panic will happen...especially if you are caught off guard.

What would cause more panic?

"Russia seems to be an aggressor and invasion is likely in the next few months. People need be prepared for evacuation efforts into neighboring countries, we also need all able fighting age men to start training with Nato"

or

my neighbor's building just got bombed wtf?....

the whole world was waiting for Ukraine to fall in 3 days. Without Western support there wasn't much Ukraine/Zelensky could do. I think they were ready to meet in negotiating table and give up any EU/NATO dreams. Everyone wanted to appease Putin.