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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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I saw an analysis elsewhere that their 30mm system seemed to have a hard time hitting a slow floating balloon target during testing, but I think I found the source here (see about 54 seconds in):

Makes me kind of doubt even if it was operational that it would have necessarily done much against a fast moving target like a missile.

To be fair, I'm not sure our own Phalanx CIWS would have done much better. The incidents that have occurred are not exactly flattering and I wasn't able to find footage of how well it did against flying targets in tests (there is footage but doesn't show the results, only does for tests against boats).
Phalanx CIWS - Wikipedia
Over the years there has been a lot of debate in naval circles as to whether the 20/30mm CIWS are of any value against the larger high speed anti-ship missiles. The discussion hinges around where the debris cone is going to end up - most likely it will still come through the side of the ship at Mach 2. Given that the warheads have to work hard to explode before they exit the other side of the hull, you may just have made the impact worse rather than better by getting a dense debris field coming inboard. This is one of the reasons why there is a related discussion re 20mm vs 30mm as there are range, rate of fire, and munition implications and consequences for that debate. But they also have uses against slow moving targets as well, which has tended to swing the outcome in their direction.

I cannot recollect the control system for the Russian 30mm units. The equivalent Western units had one console per unit, and each unit had its own radar. They have to run on near or full automatic to have any chance of working fast enough against a high-speed missile, and don't normally need any cueing from the other shipborne radar systems. Ironically in automatic they are better at getting fast-moving targets than slow-moving ones in automatic due to the way the control systems work. Slow movers tend to have a human-in-the-loop. The Russian one seems to get the targets when I look at the clip.

There is a lot that is most odd about the Moskva's performance in the engagement itself.
 
Putin cancels plan to storm last Ukraine holdout in Mariupol

Putin getting off plan? Is his inner humanitarian starting to break through showing concern for the thousands of casualties among his own troops? Probably just wants to starve the defenders out.
Putin is looking for propaganda to claim some sort of victory on May 9, the day Russia celebrates the anniversary of the Soviet Union’s part in defeating Nazi Germany. He would like to claim at least a secured land bridge to Crimea then, although preferentially the whole of the Donbas as well.

Since he figures there is a chance the Ukranians may still be holding out at the Steelworks by then, best just to ignore facts in preparation and claim Mariupol is already won.
 
Putin cancels plan to storm last Ukraine holdout in Mariupol

Putin getting off plan? Is his inner humanitarian starting to break through showing concern for the thousands of casualties among his own troops? Probably just wants to starve the defenders out.

Putin is looking for propaganda to claim some sort of victory on May 9, the day Russia celebrates the anniversary of the Soviet Union’s part in defeating Nazi Germany. He would like to claim at least a secured land bridge to Crimea then, although preferentially the whole of the Donbas as well.

Since he figures there is a chance the Ukranians may still be holding out at the Steelworks by then, best just to ignore facts in preparation and claim Mariupol is already won.
I think Ilia got it right


Putin ran out of combat ready troops for Mariupol; they're gonna go in defensive positions round Azovstal and move some troops (allegedly there were 9 BTGs involved in the Mariupol siege, God only knows what's left..) to support an offensive north thru Solodke towards Pokrovsk with an intention to finalize the pincer movement around Kramatorsk and Slovyansk. That would give the idiot in charge at Kremlin his May 9 parade... May it end up as well as Hitler's Operation Citadel. That was also intended to deal with a bothering salient...
 
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I think Ilia got it right


Putin ran out of combat ready troops for Mariupol; they're gonna go in defensive positions round Azovstal and move some troops (allegedly there were 9 BTGs involved in the Mariupol siege, God only knows what's left..) to support an offensive north thru Solodke towards Pokrovsk with an intention to finalize the pincer movement around Kramatorsk and Slovyansk. That would give the idiot in charge at Kremlin his May 9 parade... May it end up as well as Hitler's Operation Citadel. That was also intended to deal with a bothering salient...
I'm now curious abut how long they can hold on in Azovstal.

The primary requirements being:-
  • Water
  • Food
  • Ammunition
If there is less fighting, the ammunition should last longer.

They may have stockpiled a lot of dried food in a well prepared fortress.

Water is the big issue, but if they have a good well, or perhaps can somehow harvest rainwater, that isn't impossible.

With underground tunnels they may be able to open up some smuggling or resources in and out by civilians, IMO mostly food., ammunition would be risky if caught, and hard to source.

Some attacks on Russians seizing Russian military supplies might be possible.

To have well secured perimeter, and to fight off any surprise attacks, Russia needs to leave a fair amount of troops in the area.

It might be best for defenders to hold off attacks for a few days, and see if Russia starts to deploy troops elsewhere.

Try to find our where Russian ammunition is stored, and how well it is defended. if it can't be seized, try to destroy it.
 
If anyone missed it...

Richard Branson suggests lowering the speed limit in Europe with 10 km/h to get Europe off Putler's oil.


Sounds perfectly doable to me.

"Richard Branson proposes steps on reducing Russian oil use​

Apr 21, 2022
In a letter, Richard Branson calls on countries to speak out against Russia and stop funding the war in Ukraine. He proposes a few steps countries can take to reduce reliance on Russian oil and gas. He shares more with CNN's Richard Quest."


 
Another fire at a Russian facility today

Igor Sushko has been translating letters written by someone inside the FSB to a dissident in France
Igor Sushko - #FSBletters from the Wind of Change inside the FSB (KGB) - Racing & Beyond

Russia isn't close to rebellion yet, but discontent is growing among those Putin needs to run the country. The difference between a dictator and just a run of the mill jerk are the people who are willing to follow them.

Ukraine now has more tanks operational in Ukraine than Russia
Thread by @PhillipsPOBrien on Thread Reader App

The US is also giving a new drone to the Ukrainians called the Phoenix Ghost modified to Ukrainian requirements
Thread by @PhillipsPOBrien on Thread Reader App
 
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Another fire at a Russian facility today

Igor Sushko has been translating letters written by someone inside the FSB to a dissident in France
Igor Sushko - #FSBletters from the Wind of Change inside the FSB (KGB) - Racing & Beyond

Russia isn't close to rebellion yet, but discontent is growing among those Putin needs to run the country. The difference between a dictator and just a run of the mill jerk are the people who are willing to follow them.

Ukraine now has more tanks operational in Ukraine than Russia
Thread by @PhillipsPOBrien on Thread Reader App

The US is also giving a new drone to the Ukrainians called the Phoenix Ghost modified to Ukrainian requirements
Thread by @PhillipsPOBrien on Thread Reader App
That's the same fire I posted about yesterday.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: SwedishAdvocate
That's the same fire I posted about yesterday.

So it is, though there were two fires, one at a weapons development facility and the other at the plant that makes propellant for missiles. It looks like somebody on the inside in each facility did some sabotage.

Sorry for not acknowledging your earlier post.
 
I'd say poorly maintained nuclear weapons that would fail to properly detonate would be very comforting.
Not so much when they could end out as 'dirty' bombs. I know only what I have read, so I have no direct idea what the consequences might be of poorly maintained nuclear devices. Looking through several of the search-engine generated references it seems obvious that poor maintenance would contribute too higher probability of accident, whether or not the accident resulted in a traditional explosion. Just think of Chernobyl.

Exactly nothing about the present conflict is comforting, not even the demonstrated Russian military ineptness.
Comfort could only come from war end and successful reconstruction of Ukraine. Lest we forget that will require decades.
 
So it is, though there were two fires, one at a weapons development facility and the other at the plant that makes propellant for missiles. It looks like somebody on the inside in each facility did some sabotage.

Sorry for not acknowledging your earlier post.
No worries. I found it a bit strange it wasn't covered more in mainstream media. We hear more about what Harry and Meghan are doing than stuff like this.
I do hope it's sabotage and that more is being planned. Destroying Putler from the inside may be the only way to finish this.
 
If anyone missed it...

Richard Branson suggests lowering the speed limit in Europe with 10 km/h to get Europe off Putler's oil.

Sounds perfectly doable to me.


"Richard Branson proposes steps on reducing Russian oil use​

Apr 21, 2022
In a letter, Richard Branson calls on countries to speak out against Russia and stop funding the war in Ukraine. He proposes a few steps countries can take to reduce reliance on Russian oil and gas. He shares more with CNN's Richard Quest."


Slashing consumption to deprive Russia of vital energy revenue is the right idea, but his math is way, way off. Just looking at oil, let's say roughly half of oil use is driving, half of driving is >60 mph highway and 10 mph saves 12% (see Consumer Reports real world testing). That's a 3% oil reduction. Europe needs a 35% reduction, from 14m bpd down to 9. So..... a bit short.

If the US and Canada also sacrifice instead of just flapping our gums it's a 14% reduction, from 36m bpd down to 31. That's doable, but still far more than 10 mph provides.

Who else can pitch in? Forget OPEC. They enjoy $100 oil and need a working relationship with Putin. So even if we abandon VZ/Iran sanctions, Saudi Arabia and crew will reduce output to hold total OPEC supply constant. China won't help, except temporarily via Zero Covid. Japan, South Korea, etc. might make rounding error contributions.

So it's all on the west to reduce 14%/5m bpd. We could fill 2m bpd of that gap from strategic reserves while we ramp production 2m bpd, but we still need a 3m bpd cut from today's levels instead of the forecasted ~1m bpd growth. And we can't do that on the commercial side (planes, ships, trucks, etc.) without breaking the economy, so consumers need to cut ~20% from planned levels.

20% is Covid-level reduction. Massive work-from-home, carpooling, biking/walking, altered vacation plans, etc. Wartime rationing is the only way. Are we willing to sacrifice for Ukraine?

Politicians and leaders like Branson think the answer is no. That's why they keep spinning fairy tales.