Rumor summary: Blind-spot cameras, Rain sensing, Level 3, Big battery, Interior/HUD

[Bladerskb]

Except EyeQ4 is still planned to be used as a sensor fusion assisted vision platform, and is only meant to achieve L3, and is still essentially not available to customers yet. And their L5 solution with EyeQ5 is not meant to be available until 2020 or later.

Nothing about what Tesla is doing is insane. It just seems that AP2's release was maybe 4 years ahead of industry consensus regarding when it should be achievable.

Not quite because EYEQ4 can enable L5 driving. Many companies already use it in their current prototype. the only difference between 4 and 5 is the astronomical overhead power. Power that is enough to run other companies own inefficient, power hungry algorithms.

EYEQ4 has overhead power, but not enough. 4x-5x eyeq4 however will provide enough for L5.
Or one eye4 and a nvidia (Xavier) or intel chip. Similar with what audi did with A8 with one eyeq3 for vision and another chip for sensor fusion and planning.

 

[J1mbo]

I wonder: would an interior refresh in, say, 3 weeks time, cause a massive problem for those with a short position on the stock?

Just a thought as can't see M3 ramp to sustained 5k+ per week being enough to justify that tweet.

 

[EV-lutioin]

I wonder: would an interior refresh in, say, 3 weeks time, cause a massive problem for those with a short position on the stock?

Just a thought as can't see M3 ramp to sustained 5k+ per week being enough to justify that tweet.

I think Musk sees how all the torturous experimentation with developing new efficiencies in production are starting to pay off. He is seeing production rates going up, production costs going down and profitability on the horizon. And, he probably senses how the ability to rapidly deploy assembly lines is going to positively effect the launch and ramp of Model Y, Semi, Roadster et al.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

My analysis of the picture Elon tweeted - I believe it is showing developer settings for Enhanced Autopilot.

If we look at the specifications for Enhanced Autopilot - and previous promises for navigation-based exit taking for "AP1 firmware 8.1" around December 2016 (though that promise never shipped, so far) - this picture seems to tick all the boxes:

- Follow Nav: Navigation following to enable transitioning from freeway to another (how else would the car know which ramp to take)
- Blinker To Fork: Related to the previous point perhaps, question is does it mean showing blinker at forks or does it mean requiring blinker by driver at forks (instead of auto-selection?)
- Enable ULC: Could be Enable Unattended Lane Changes or something to that effect, i.e. automatic lane changes
- Automatic lane-changes would require camera-based blind-spot detection, for which internal aggressiveness settings are displayed (unknown if they become user-selectable ones)

I am looking forward to these features. It is my feeling this image does not yet show any of the promised "FSD features", but nevertheless a worthy feature-update to EAP once it materializes in a reliable form. Could version 9 upgrade AP to actual EAP? Is it reliable yet? Who knows, but ticking box 1 of the original post would be very welcome at least.

The Augmented Vision part, unfortunately is nothing new in itself and possibly not directly related to any HUD potentially in development. It has been discussed before on the Autonomous Vehicles sub-forum and has been seen in prior leaks. Many of the other sub-menus are new or newly labelled though, for example the Full Self-driving menu is not shown and others have taken its place. See comparison shot at the end of message.

In the meanwhile, thank you for all the comments to the thread and have a great summer, friends!

 

[diplomat33]

My analysis of the picture Elon tweeted - I believe it is showing developer settings for Enhanced Autopilot.

If we look at the specifications for Enhanced Autopilot - and previous promises for navigation-based exit taking for "AP1 firmware 8.1" around December 2016 (though that promise never shipped, so far) - this picture seems to tick all the boxes:

- Follow Nav: Navigation following to enable transitioning from freeway to another (how else would the car know which ramp to take)
- Blinker To Fork: Related to the previous point perhaps, question is does it mean showing blinker at forks or does it mean requiring blinker by driver at forks (instead of auto-selection?)
- Enable ULC: Could be Enable Unattended Lane Changes or something to that effect, i.e. automatic lane changes
- Automatic lane-changes would require camera-based blind-spot detection, for which internal aggressiveness settings are displayed (unknown if they become user-selectable ones)

Good analysis. The fact that the screen says "autopilot" at the top would certainly seem to indicate that we are just looking at features for autopilot, not FSD. As we see in the screenshot you posted below, there is a separate tab for FSD features.

I am looking forward to these features. It is my feeling this image does not yet show any of the promised "FSD features", but nevertheless a worthy feature-update to EAP once it materializes in a reliable form. Could version 9 upgrade AP to actual EAP? Is it reliable yet? Who knows, but ticking box 1 of the original post would be very welcome at least.

I know Tesla misses deadlines but it would be really really cool indeed if V9 did bring us all the new features promised in EAP. At least we have a screenshot confirmation that the features are in active development. Clearly, Tesla has something in testing, it is just a matter of getting it ready for public release. That is promising.

 

[conman]

- Blinker To Fork: Related to the previous point perhaps, question is does it mean showing blinker at forks or does it mean requiring blinker by driver at forks (instead of auto-selection?)

My guess is to use the indicator (or blinker as you call it in your part of the world) as a hint about what to do in lane divisions at forks. Currently it's pretty random about which fork it takes more to do with proximity than anything useful. I had this as a suggestion in my good ideas thread.

 

[u00mem9]

I wonder: would an interior refresh in, say, 3 weeks time, cause a massive problem for those with a short position on the stock?

Just a thought as can't see M3 ramp to sustained 5k+ per week being enough to justify that tweet.

Just when you thought the interior refresh was finally dead. What has it been, 2 years since the imminent thread?!

 

[J1mbo]

My guess is to use the indicator (or blinker as you call it in your part of the world) as a hint about what to do in lane divisions at forks. Currently it's pretty random about which fork it takes more to do with proximity than anything useful. I had this as a suggestion in my good ideas thread.

Hands on the wheel at all times, auto-HOLD at stops, manual indication... I finally figured it out! The "Self" in Full Self Driving is the human in the driving seat.

Mind. Blown.

 

[verygreen]

- Enable ULC: Could be Enable Unattended Lane Changes or something to that effect, i.e. automatic lane changes

I believe they mean YOU need to signal with the turn signal stalk for when the car is to change a lane. See follow on comment by Elon indicating how they wonder how to enable aggressive mode by perhaps holding the stalk longer or permanently to say you mean it.

Also ulc IS enabled by default in the ap2 cars I have seen.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Good analysis. The fact that the screen says "autopilot" at the top would certainly seem to indicate that we are just looking at features for autopilot, not FSD. As we see in the screenshot you posted below, there is a separate tab for FSD features.

Thank you. That said, I don't think the Autopilot title proves much. The old FSD tab was also under an "Autopilot Settings" title it seems (the old picture showing the Augmented Vision tab). But it is of course possible the FSD settings have now been moved somewhere else (or removed), since the tab seems to no longer be there or at least isn't visible in the latest picture.

My guess is to use the indicator (or blinker as you call it in your part of the world) as a hint about what to do in lane divisions at forks. Currently it's pretty random about which fork it takes more to do with proximity than anything useful. I had this as a suggestion in my good ideas thread.

Agreed, the Blinker to Fork meaning simply adjusting blinking of the light makes no sense anyway. The idea that it might be a way to take forks, perhaps even unrelated to navigation following (or not), is intriguing. It might also be a reference to the really complex vs. really simple system Elon was tweeting about some time ago - using the blinker to navigate forks would probably be a simpler system to implement, though not automatic in EAP's promised sense yet...

Just when you thought the interior refresh was finally dead.

I know you're not really serious, but just saying it out loud: I think it would be a mistake to think that. The interior refresh has likely been delayed, sure, but dead is unlikely IMO.

I believe they mean YOU need to signal with the turn signal stalk for when the car is to change a lane. See follow on comment by Elon indicating how they wonder how to enable aggressive mode by perhaps holding the stalk longer or permanently to say you mean it.

Also ulc IS enabled by default in the ap2 cars I have seen.

Very fair, thank you for the info. It is thus possible Enable ULC is not related to Enhanced Autopilot, but an older Autopilot feature (i.e. User-initiated Lane Changes or the like).

One thing I didn't cover. I wonder if Vision Stops means stopping the car based on vision, instead of on radar?

Now, off to drive Autopilot before the E becomes unsilent and/or @buttershrimp notices this thread. Take care!

 

[lunitiks]

The interior refresh has likely been delayed, sure, but dead is unlikely IMO

Ay. Several good reasons you’re right. One is the fact that the «mcu2» is referenced as «mcu transitional» in SW code. The word transitional indicates that it’s a stop-gap solution. I see a new MCU coming with a full dash redesign, something more like 3 or even the new Roadster. Just guessing, of course, but’s logical to me

 

[lunitiks]

One thing I didn't cover. I wonder if Vision Stops means stopping the car based on vision, instead of on radar?

I remember one of @verygreen ’s screenshots of the AP dev screen back in the «AP2.0 capabilities»-days: Under the tab «Signs» there was options or info wrt visual vs GPS enabled sign «recognition». Perhaps u can dig it up?

Anyway, I believe it might be for recognizing stop lines on the tarmac, and stop signs by the road. Traffic lights I’d assume they used another label than «vision stops». But hey, your guess is as good as mine

 

[u00mem9]

I know you're not really serious, but just saying it out loud: I think it would be a mistake to think that. The interior refresh has likely been delayed, sure, but dead is unlikely IMO.

At this point, it could be announced tomorrow, and those that claimed it was imminent would still be wrong. Of course there will someday be an update...that’s how the industry works.

If I remember correctly, the entire thing was some excuse-making by the ‘Tesla never discounts’ crowd to explain why Tesla was discounting again.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

At this point, it could be announced tomorrow, and those that claimed it was imminent would still be wrong. Of course there will someday be an update...that’s how the industry works.

If I remember correctly, the entire thing was some excuse-making by the ‘Tesla never discounts’ crowd to explain why Tesla was discounting again.

I understand there is a thread about an imminent interior refresh. For me it was always an estimation/speculation - based on the leaks and rumors we had - that Tesla was planning to interior refresh the Model S/X sometime around the start of the year that potentially included a number of rumoured and speculated things. Obviously the timeline speculations didn't hit the mark. The bigger question that IMO remains is, was the actual insight into the refresh (many tidbits gathered over time) right or wrong. I'm still thinking it was right. I believe there was an upgrade and that there was a now-delayed release plan.

Turns out, that's when the Model 3 production hell hit and we have at least one alleged source claiming Tesla delayed the planned upgrade (and we got the "transitional" MCU2 instead - see @lunitiks comment above). Given how superior Model 3 is to Model S/X in some regards, it just makes sense Tesla was planning for an upgrade to them alongside the Model 3 ramp-up... There were reasons and alleged leaks suggesting an interior refresh would have been likely (battery upgrades I believe most felt would come a bit later, so those were never as likely as soon)... even Elon's tweets on how Model S/X would always be superior - yet now they aren't... We shall see how it plays out.

If the interior refresh never comes or is of completely different nature than we have speculated - and if future memoirs tell none was even planned - then by all means, the speculation would have been wrong and I'm the first to admit it.

Speculation and leak-gathering is a never-ending game. Things can change on a dime internally, so you can never be sure even when you get a credible leak. But it is fun (for some) and can improve your odds for making informed purchases. I mean, companies like Tesla will never tell you beforehand (many car makers do, though). So sleuthing is the thing we've got.

In the meanwhile, I'm still rooting for the augmented reality HUD... and not just because it is an AR HUD!

 

[conman]

Agreed, the Blinker to Fork meaning simply adjusting blinking of the light makes no sense anyway. The idea that it might be a way to take forks, perhaps even unrelated to navigation following (or not), is intriguing. It might also be a reference to the really complex vs. really simple system Elon was tweeting about some time ago - using the blinker to navigate forks would probably be a simpler system to implement, though not automatic in EAP's promised sense yet...

I'm sure it would be used as a hint meaning it won't be required for the most part, it will only override the random selection process if you cared.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Quick analysis update to the thread based on the alleged Model S/X interior design refresh reported by Electrek recently. It seems, if Electrek ends up being accurate, @CraZ8's information about a curved portrait screen would have been wrong (or changed since), though unsurprisingly the Model 3 like dash vents seem to be there. We can not see enough from the images to assess the exterior points made by CraZ8.

The reported timeline of one more year is of course also much later than expected by us (or CraZ8), though that too remains to be seen if that is accurate.

Well I checked with my source after the rumor mill started up yesterday and sadly due to production problems with the 3 the revamp of the S has indeed been pushed back to late 2018 or early 2019. On the plus side along with the other interior and exterior changes discussed They will also be going to the 2170 packs and 3 type motors. The interior will sport a curved dash ( touch screen?) and a mono vent like the 3. Now if I drop the money on P100D in a year how can I afford a roadster in two? All these first world problems

The tail and rear lights will get a revamp as well as the mirrors ( possible passing indicators?)

From what I hear the screen will be portrait oriented and curved like the new roadster. Don’t know yet about a display for the driver or a HUD

One things seems plausible based on the images, though, Model 3 like door opening buttons seem to be on the door.

8. Doors. I'm not formulating this too tightly, since this is a very speculative entry and mostly just small bits and bobs of rumor, speculation ald logic/lack thereof thrown together.

One thing that is IMO of interest are the button-operated Model 3 doors. I have not been able to find any proof that they'd be motorized and just disabled, but it would fit as an anti-sell to keep this feature away from Model 3 headlines until Model S gets it too...

Exclusive first look at Tesla Model S and Model X interior refresh: going spartan like Model 3

Finally, no indications of an AR HUD... Unless you consider a significantly reduced instrument cluster screen as a possible indication, but that's a stretch. We shall see.

 

[wbhokie]

Finally, no indications of an AR HUD... Unless you consider a significantly reduced instrument cluster screen as a possible indication, but that's a stretch. We shall see.

That last part... I read there will be an instrument cluster, just reduced which would eliminate the need for a HUD since it would likely have the things a HUD normally has, other than maybe navigation turns. Still, too early to worry about it, but thank you for the update!

Did you notice the pedals?

 

[gavine]

Did you notice the pedals?

Those pedals are definitely intriguing. I'm anxious to learn about them.

 

[timvracer]

horrid

 

[MXWing]

horrid

A Tesla short seller came up with that interior concept.