Yep I agree 23k deliveries in 2013 is very doable (barring any unforeseen production or supply issues). Maybe 24,000. But if I was Tesla management, I would give guidance that I could confidently beat... thus 22,000 guidance for 2013. If I thought I could deliver 24,000 confidently, I might raise guidance to 23,000. But that would be a huge sign of confidence from Tesla.
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Yep I agree 23k deliveries in 2013 is very doable (barring any unforeseen production or supply issues). Maybe 24,000. But if I was Tesla management, I would give guidance that I could confidently beat... thus 22,000 guidance for 2013. If I thought I could deliver 24,000 confidently, I might raise guidance to 23,000. But that would be a huge sign of confidence from Tesla.
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
kevin99
Member
I am pretty sure their run rate at the time my 2nd factory tour (teslive time!) is at 600/week!
kevin99
Member
Sorry sleepy you are only half right.
My point is GAAP is relevant to Wall Street, therefore relevant to me.
PeterW
Member
If they are already at 600/week then they would produce more than 24,000 with no increases in production rate for the rest of the year
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
Do we know if that's their sustainable number? From what I understood some weeks they do better than others...They have to shut things down to make changes for one reason or another, retool, maintenance, etc. I thought ~500 a week was their latest "sustainable" number.
I'm probably wrong.
PeterW
Member
You may be right, at least partly. 500/week may be closer to their "sustainable" number. So, if we can agree that 500/week is the minimum from now on, and we can also agree on 10,000 cars produced (give or take); then going on Dave's 12 weeks production per Quarter, that is still 22,000 cars minimum.
My guess would be they will give guidance of more than that.
I'm actually pretty sure it wasn't 600/week run rate at the time of Teslive weekend. I believe they were shooting for 550/week at that time but not sure if they were achieving that.
kevin99
Member
Why?
I see all displays showing 600/week, 60/shift with total, target, and actual number achieved.
Can you share more in detail what you saw and also what day (ie., friday, saturday or sunday, what time of day)?
I heard from someone on the Friday late afternoon tour during Teslive weekend, that they saw a sign with 440 cars made out of the 550 week goal.
PeterW
Member
Dave, if Tesla are running two 8 hour shifts; do you know what their shift times are and therefore how much of the week was left?
It's all a fog, but I vaguely recall hearing in a factory tour that the early shift started super early in the morning (something like 3 or 4am, can't recall exact time), and the second shift started later in the morning (can't recall exact time, but something like 9 or 10am). But those numbers don't seem to work out because shifts should be 8 hours or so (shows how foggy my memory is of those stats). Anyway, hopefully if anyone knows the exact time, they can share them here.
I also vaguely recall hearing they're working Mon-Fri.
PeterW
Member
Thanks Dave. If the 440 number was correct I was just trying to work out if that was about it for that week or they would have got closer to 500. Hopefully someone can enlighten us with shift times.
It appeared the 440 number wasn't the final count of the week because people were still hard at work late into the afternoon. I would imagine they got over 500 for the week, but not sure if they could have reached the 550 target (but this is complete conjecture).
smorgasbord
Active Member
This is the rub: Very good may not be good enough considering where expectations are. Whisper numbers for production, profit margin, and revenue are all higher than Tesla has stated publicly, and even we who have previously predicted higher than Tesla's expectations are not going above what I think general expectations are. No-one seems to be saying 5500 cars or more than 15% profit margins or more than $600m in revenue.
I getting tempted to hedge my long term holdings.
kevin99
Member
My tour was on Sunday 10am. Since it was my second tour, I think I am more focused on what I am looking for and not distracted.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I believe the line is rated for 400 cars per shift per week, so potentially 800 cars per week with two shifts. If they have been continuously ramping up production rates they could be over 600 per week by now.
kevin99
Member
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