I have tried to model a projection of the Q2 2013 results (see attachment) but there are a some/many open questions and i would really appreciate if you could chime in and tell me your expectations and what kind of estimates or data you are using to forecast the Q2 results.
I started with an estimated numbers of cars produced/delivered and used the forward-looking statements from the investors call and the 10-Q (e.g. gross margin is expected to be in the "high teens" ~ i assumed it to be 19%) to calculate/estimate financial data like revenues or expenses. Please feel free to point out any errors i made. I am trying to learn here and this is my very first take on this matter.
Using this back-of-the envelope calculation it looks like Tesla would need a gross margin well above 20% to get profitable in Q2 2013. Revenue from ZEV credits is said to be declining and this should be a given, taking into consideration that the numbers of cars delivered in Q2 will be roughly at the level of Q1 but in Q2 there will be a higher rate of 60kWh cars (meaning less EV credits per car). Expenses will be slightly higher than in Q1 and that leaves not much room for a profit. I was wondering if there is a financial benefit from repaying the DOE loan early that would reflect on the Q2 results?
What do you think?
I started with an estimated numbers of cars produced/delivered and used the forward-looking statements from the investors call and the 10-Q (e.g. gross margin is expected to be in the "high teens" ~ i assumed it to be 19%) to calculate/estimate financial data like revenues or expenses. Please feel free to point out any errors i made. I am trying to learn here and this is my very first take on this matter.
Using this back-of-the envelope calculation it looks like Tesla would need a gross margin well above 20% to get profitable in Q2 2013. Revenue from ZEV credits is said to be declining and this should be a given, taking into consideration that the numbers of cars delivered in Q2 will be roughly at the level of Q1 but in Q2 there will be a higher rate of 60kWh cars (meaning less EV credits per car). Expenses will be slightly higher than in Q1 and that leaves not much room for a profit. I was wondering if there is a financial benefit from repaying the DOE loan early that would reflect on the Q2 results?
What do you think?
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