Q1 2017 Delivery Estimates

[geneclean55]

Apparently 50 inventory Tesla's already showed up in Dubai (brand new market) last week. I wonder if they sold a few before quarter end.

 

[RobStark]

Blue sales are way down. Just sayin' Be careful out there. Maybe sell all your shares. Just concerned for yall.

Sales of Tesla brown cars have fallen 100% over the last two years.

Must mean Tesla is on the verge of bankruptcy.

 

[kenliles]

Sales of Tesla brown cars have fallen 100% over the last two years.

Must mean Tesla is on the verge of bankruptcy.

I heard it was due to a massive order cancellation-
by UPS

 

[DragonWatch]

Tesla and son-in-law parked MX in our garage today 31Mar17 or 1Q17 Delivery. Just counted 8 MX and MS current inventory available for sale. Way down from two weeks ago I get to see my car tomorrow evening Now charging and downloading 8.1 overnight.

 

[dennis]

You must realize that Norway has decreased since 2014. Norway looks good because of Model X.

Unit sales
Jan Feb March Q1
132 431 1493 2,056 --2014
71 321 1140 1,532 -- 2015
105 113 487 705 -- 2016
129 56 289 474 -- 2017 MS only
367 100 727 1194 -- 2017 combined S+X

Currently, from the eyes of someone doing accounting, Norway is better than 2016 but is beaten by 2014 and 2015.
If you look at MS only, it has declined every year since 2014, 2017 is the "worst march" of the four years. Since MX has not sold any units in a Q1 until this one, how many are from the historic 2012-2016 order period and how many are new-buyers? Numbers are numbers and if you remove emotion of "looking good" views of the numbers, in terms of sales revenues, I would say that they could have done better.

Norway registrations do not equate equally to sold cars. Registrations can come before a sale and may just be registration of some "cars in transit".

Others have commented that Tesla is not doing anything to increase production capcaity for S/X because all human and capital resources are being applied to Model 3, which I agree with. But there is another item you are overlooking in your "analysis" - the natural demand cycles for new car models. I could pick any number of brands/models, but let's look at US sales of the Mercedes S Class:

2013 - 13,303
2014 - 25,276
2015 - 21,934
2016 - 18,803

Not surprising given that the 6th generation S Class was introduced in 2014 and sales almost doubled. But they have fallen by about 30% since then. it is the shiny new thing phenomenon which results in a jump in sales followed by a decay. It explains why manufacturers introduce new models to create new demand (hint: Model X).

I think many are surprised that sales for the almost 5 year old Model S have held up so well given that there has only been one very minor styling change. A 2017 Model S still looks almost exactly like a 2012, albeit with a number of functional improvements made during those 5 years. The continuing demand for Model S is most likely explained by the additional market awareness that continues to happen and the penetration into new geographic markets.

Once the Model 3 starts shipping in volume interest in what the demand is for Model S and X will wane. I expect at that time you will jump to trying to prove that some low percentage of Model 3 reservations are being converted to sales and you will cite instances of cancellations. I can't wait...

 

[bonaire]

In terms of Model 3, I really don't care during year 1. The issue is how many can be made and will they meet the lofty production throughput goals and how. What I am mainly interested in seeing is if the Buffalo Riverbend complex actually is used to the extent that was promised (hiring levels) or if NY starts throwing $41 Million fines as written in the contract. Most likely, GF1 and GF2 will both be involved in some parts of the car production process so as to fully utilize the buildings to meet contracted performance levels.

 

[dennis]

In terms of Model 3, I really don't care during year 1. The issue is how many can be made and will they meet the lofty production throughput goals and how. What I am mainly interested in seeing is if the Buffalo Riverbend complex actually is used to the extent that was promised (hiring levels) or if NY starts throwing $41 Million fines as written in the contract. Most likely, GF1 and GF2 will both be involved in some parts of the car production process so as to fully utilize the buildings to meet contracted performance levels.

With Tesla reported to be hiring 3000 workers in Fremont for Model 3 production, there are a number of reasons for them to build some subsystems in NY or NV that have nothing to do with hiring quotas. Two examples are capacity constraints and less expensive labor.

 

[neroden]

Q1 delivery estimates? For the heck of it, I'll predict 200 MWh of Powerpack deliveries. (This is just a wild guess.)

 

[SebastianR]

Numbers are out. Just above 25k. One of the rare instances where we have been more conservative than the actual numbers. That speaks to me for a beat of public expectations and a nice little pop tomorrow for $TSLA

 

[EinSV]

25,000

Hey @TMSE, nice call. A few of us were pretty close but you nailed it!

 

[austinEV]

Annoyed with myself. I called 25,001 but never submitted it here. And I have a girlfriend in Canada, you wouldn't know her.

 

[AudubonB]

Errr.. AHEM!!!!.....

 

[EinSV]

Errr.. AHEM!!!!.....

Hmmm. Mea culpa. I guess it is not over until the fat lady singeth..

Time to cast my lot. I'll defer to hoi polloi and put in more precision than in the past:

2.506 x 10^4

 

[TMSE]

I

Hey @TMSE, nice call. A few of us were pretty close but you nailed it!

I guess I had beginners luck