Project Better Place

[TEG]

Works good for rental fleets too (in Hawaii) as the renters are unlikely to drive beyond the EV range (due to constrained area) even if they aren't used to driving an EV.

 

[brianman]

Don't silently assume anyone will give you gifts and expect nothing in return.

Must resist urge for political commentary...

 

[JRP3]

The point is you're completely ignoring these opportunities in your rush to say BP add nothing.

You have to remember that you are talking to a bunch of EV drivers who easily manage their charging needs without the "added value" that you think BP provides. I think most people can setup their charging parameters on their own, and many of the features you talk about don't need BP to be implemented. EV's don't need to be supported by a gas station at every corner. As pack sizes increase they need even less support. Even if BP makes some sort of sense now in Israel how much sense would it make if your car had a 300 mile pack as it likely will in the future? BP will be outdated even if it manages to survive. It seems as if you are trying to justify the situation you are forced to be in with BP. Maybe a bit of Stockholm syndrome.

 

[VolkerP]

Simple fact is comparing similar EV's, one without a swappable pack and not tied into the BP payment system, the BP car has to cost more to purchase and operate. Whatever BP's expenses and profits are they must be paid for by the consumer. BP can only make owning an EV more expensive. If they provide something worthwhile for that additional expense is up to the individual to decide.

I think you overlooked electricity rates. BP can buy at wholesale rates. They can manage charging the packs both in the cars and in the swap stations. Even V2G capability can be sold as ancillary services. Ask Robert.Boston what these are worth. I guess that utilities would give them better rates than average household TOU rates.

Edit: I am late to this thread and found these points mentioned before, though not agreed upon. Main subject appears to be, does the BP model add value to its customers when compared with an EV?

Well yes in my opinion, see above, plus the battery leasing takes away upfront cost and worries about pack degradation and replacement costs. And that is an issue for people to get interested in EVs (even if it disappears when taking ownership).

So long in short I'd say the achievement of BP is making EVs work for everybody, not just early adopters/tree huggers/EV nuts/you name it.

 

[dsm363]

I agree the Better Place model works in some areas I just don't think it is a good model for the entire world. As JRP3 said, once battery costs come down and pack sizes get above 300 miles (for the lowest cost pack) I think their model will make less and less sense.

 

[brianoflondon]

Thank you, nice to see someone who isn't a Stokholm syndromed owner agrees with me!

I'm recommending BP to people who are runnin XP on their laptops, it works for everybody not just advanced techie greens.

I think you overlooked electricity rates. BP can buy at wholesale rates. They can manage charging the packs both in the cars and in the swap stations. Even V2G capability can be sold as ancillary services. Ask Robert.Boston what these are worth. I guess that utilities would give them better rates than average household TOU rates.

Edit: I am late to this thread and found these points mentioned before, though not agreed upon. Main subject appears to be, does the BP model add value to its customers when compared with an EV?

Well yes in my opinion, see above, plus the battery leasing takes away upfront cost and worries about pack degradation and replacement costs. And that is an issue for people to get interested in EVs (even if it disappears when taking ownership).

So long in short I'd say the achievement of BP is making EVs work for everybody, not just early adopters/tree huggers/EV nuts/you name it.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

You have to remember that you are talking to a bunch of EV drivers who easily manage their charging needs without the "added value" that you think BP provides. I think most people can setup their charging parameters on their own, and many of the features you talk about don't need BP to be implemented. EV's don't need to be supported by a gas station at every corner. As pack sizes increase they need even less support. Even if BP makes some sort of sense now in Israel how much sense would it make if your car had a 300 mile pack as it likely will in the future? BP will be outdated even if it manages to survive. It seems as if you are trying to justify the situation you are forced to be in with BP. Maybe a bit of Stockholm syndrome.

"as it likely will in the future?"
"BP will be outdated"

You're making a lot of assumptions. Even at $200/kWh batteries would be a large upfront expense and the economics would always favor right-sizing the pack.

I've written it before and I'll write it again. The key issue with Better Place's model is the operating cost of redundancy. Everything else about the model (right-sizing through battery swapping, bulk purchase of electricity, bulk purchase of batteries, maximizing use of aging batteries, lowering charging costs through efficient and smart charging, automated stations) can drive costs downwards. Customers are buying into fast refueling.

 

[Robert.Boston]

There are several value propositions here that I think need to be teased out:

1. Battery swap stations. How much value is added by being able to swap out a battery, rather than waiting for it to recharge?
2. Battery leasing. Does this financial arrangement make EVs more affordable and lower risk to a significant fraction of potential buyers?
3. Home charging equipment. Are homeowners interested in having a third party manage the installation of the charger, shifting the upfront cost (financial and transactional) to a per-month charge?
4. Public charging equipment. Who will own & operate public charging points?
5. Charging control. Can consolidated power purchase and coordinated control of charging save costs and/or create convenience for customers?

NRG's EVGo subsidiary is betting on #3 -- #5 being a viable business. I thought of BP's business model as being #1, #2, and #5, so this info about them expanding into #3 & #4 is news to me.

Some of #5 is going to migrate to the car itself. There's no particular reason why my Model S won't know everything that's useful to know about charging timing and costs. With its GPS and a straightforward database, it can know the cheapest charging times and delay charging until then, unless the driver asks to override that. Of course, at public stations it will always charge immediately (or have a computer-to-computer conversation with the EVSE).

 

[TEG]

There are several value propositions here that I think need to be teased out:

1. Battery swap stations
2. Battery leasing
   ...

IMHO, these go a bit "hand in hand". One argument against pack-swap/switch is that someone who owns a new battery may not want it swapped out for a used one. If you lease it then you have less say in the matter. Heck, maybe they deliver your 'new' car with an already used battery installed.
There has also been some resistance by some to leasing in general after what happened with the previous generation of EVs (e.g., EV1) where the leases were recalled and the cars destroyed in spite of protests from lessees who really wanted to buy. (Perhaps a bit of that with the BMW-MiniE program, and the new Honda Fit lease-only.)

 

[doug]

You have to remember that you are talking to a bunch of EV drivers who easily manage their charging needs without the "added value" that you think BP provides. I think most people can setup their charging parameters on their own, and many of the features you talk about don't need BP to be implemented. EV's don't need to be supported by a gas station at every corner. As pack sizes increase they need even less support. Even if BP makes some sort of sense now in Israel how much sense would it make if your car had a 300 mile pack as it likely will in the future? BP will be outdated even if it manages to survive. It seems as if you are trying to justify the situation you are forced to be in with BP. Maybe a bit of Stockholm syndrome.

Stockholm syndrome is a bit hyperbolic. While you make good points that I agree with, you also have to remember that there are many aspiring EV drivers out there that need the trasition to be easier. If Better Place gets more people driving EVs then that's a societal value add. If they eventually fail, then so be it. Look at them as a transitional technology like the plug-in hybrid/EREV. But perhaps they'll be able to adjust their business model with changing technology.

Just consider this possibility: when you sign up with BP in Israel you agree that they control the current flow to your car. Just plugging in doesn't guarantee that charging will start. In practice today in Israel I don't see a lot of evidence that they're doing this but the equipment and the legal permission are there. I have a "Priority" button to override this behaviour.

In other parts of the world like the US and the UK where there are cheap night time tariffs, EV owners have to research these tariffs, apply for them and then remember to set whatever timing device their car comes with in order to access cheaper power.

Companies like Coulomb Technologies (the ChargePoint guys) have been working on this for a while with public charging. The problem is that in many states only the utility is able to charge for electricity. And perhaps the time value of the parking space is worth more than the electricity the driver is likely to use, so it's hard as of yet to incentivize delayed charging (at a lame 16 or 30 A, you probably want that charge ASAP anyhow). They've also admitted that as more cars are cloud connected, that kind of control is likely to be at the car, rather than the EVSE. [Edit to add: After refreshing the page, I now see that Robert Boston made this point above.]

Btw, Brian, I appreciate your informative posts.

 

[brianoflondon]

Some of #5 is going to migrate to the car itself. There's no particular reason why my Model S won't know everything that's useful to know about charging timing and costs. With its GPS and a straightforward database, it can know the cheapest charging times and delay charging until then, unless the driver asks to override that. Of course, at public stations it will always charge immediately (or have a computer-to-computer conversation with the EVSE).

I can confirm that the full BP model, as we have in Israel is points 1 to 5 and I'll add a couple that are underrated but I'm beginning to appreciate:

1. Meticulously updated and maintained GPS data about live switch stations and public charging spots - because it's a subscription model we are paying for this so the ever increasing number of subscribers are paying an increasing amount for it. It is not just a marketing tool to attract another customer.
2. Ongoing development of route planning and battery prediction. The next version (due in August) is going to start amassing a database of exactly how much battery was used on each km of each road in Israel. I think this approach will lead to pretty spectacular range prediction.

As to your point about the car doing the smart grid part there is one other point (pretty unique to Israel right now and especially this summer because of the geopolitical problems with our gas supply) Every 30 seconds the Israeli Electric Company feeds Better Place with a notification of grid status: BP can curtail charging within 5 seconds if asked to on a geographically specific basis.

On the other side, BP is gearing up to submit a prediction of current usage each evening as they bring cars up to charge over night. This will be a great help for load prediction at the IEC.

It's hard to see a bunch of autonomous cars being in a fit state to do all that anytime soon and then you have to deal with the whole issue of whose car it is.

Simple price variation is a fairly crude tool with which to try and rearrange power demand especially when EVs are so damn cheap in comparison to gasoline and (in the Tesla case) the running costs will be so negligible to the kinds of people who are buying them!

 

[TEG]

Maintenance of charging infrastructure is important. Broken charging stations make people lose faith in their ability to plan a trip, so up to date information and quick repairs is important.

 

[brianoflondon]

Companies like Coulomb Technologies (the ChargePoint guys) have been working on this for a while with public charging. The problem is that in many states only the utility is able to charge for electricity. And perhaps the time value of the parking space is worth more than the electricity the driver is likely to use, so it's hard as of yet to incentivize delayed charging (at a lame 16 or 30 A, you probably want that charge ASAP anyhow). They've also admitted that as more cars are cloud connected, that kind of control is likely to be at the car, rather than the EVSE. [Edit to add: After refreshing the page, I now see that Robert Boston made this point above.]

Btw, Brian, I appreciate your informative posts.

Public charging is always going to be small compared to home charging and it is predominantly day time. The real added value in EVs is night time charging. That is the most fundamental part of BP: capturing control of the home charging of large fleets of EVs. This is valuable in aggregate but relatively worthless to single owners. BP will not sell a car if they can't put a charger in place to charge the car all night.

 

[SByer]

...who are runnin XP on their laptops, it works for everybody not just advanced techie greens.

<OffTopic>
People are still running XP on laptops? ?!? Are you kidding me? Talk about a portable virus magnet, an instant member of a botnet, a free invitation to steal personal data...
</OffTopic>

Fast charging station are two orders of magnitude cheaper than gas stations, and you need an order of magnitude fewer of them. I don't think BP has a long-term place, but I think, like the Volt, they bridge a gap for folks who have range anxiety and need the training wheels. I'm interested to see how this all plays out. Hey, if BP wins, EVs still win - I don't think I'd mind that at all.

 

[brianman]

<OffTopic>
People are still running XP on laptops? ?!? Are you kidding me? Talk about a portable virus magnet, an instant member of a botnet, a free invitation to steal personal data...
</OffTopic>

Usage share of operating systems - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
They don't break it down by device category, but nonetheless XP is still heavily used.

 

[doug]

I don't think BP has a long-term place, but I think, like the Volt, they bridge a gap for folks who have range anxiety and need the training wheels. I'm interested to see how this all plays out. Hey, if BP wins, EVs still win - I don't think I'd mind that at all.

This was essentially my point above.

 

[SByer]

<OffTopic>
Do they have stats that exclude China?
But yeah, I know the stats. Makes me weep.
</OffTopic>

 

[brianoflondon]

This was essentially my point above.

Let's push it a little further: if an electricity grid has too much renewable, especially wind such as Denmark, which blows at night can you imagine being paid to take electricity and store it? For an individual user this negotiation isn't going to happen soon. For a provider with 30,000 of the worlds most advanced LiON batteries of which 25,000 are connected at any given moment? Load balancing during the day is possible defraying the costs of building new or powering up existing plant for peaks. I know the Fluence ZE can't do this now, but it's easy to make it so.

We actually need this today in Israel as we are less than 5% capacity away from grid failure at peak IF everything is working. We're basically messed up here. If we could draw on 20,000 cars for 10 mins that would be a big deal!

 

[Robert.Boston]

Public charging is always going to be small compared to home charging and it is predominantly day time. The real added value in EVs is night time charging. That is the most fundamental part of BP: capturing control of the home charging of large fleets of EVs. This is valuable in aggregate but relatively worthless to single owners. BP will not sell a car if they can't put a charger in place to charge the car all night.

This is a great point, @brianoflondon. While I think the web-connected car will be able to respond to grid dispatch signals, you make the excellent point that someone with sufficient scale has to have the legal right to curtail (or ramp up) charging. In the States we have "curtailment service providers" such as EnerNOC, but these guys generally focus on large industrial and commercial, where control is single-point and relatively simple. There's definitely room in the US market for an EV aggregator to manage home charging, passing along a portion of the extra revenues that this controlled charging will create (grid operators pay for regulation services and spinning reserves).

 

[Kevin Sharpe]

What I think is missing here is the fact that 'ordinary' electricians will be trained to install low cost Charging Stations everywhere... in the UK the Government is setting up an accreditations programme for electricians and we are beginning to see low cost Charging Stations appear in electrical wholesale stores (and soon in DIY stores).

Here's an example article published this month from a mainstream electrical trade magazine Electrical Contracting News

The moment we forget that this is just plugs and sockets is the moment we imagine we need complex and expensive systems to dispense electricity