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Prediction: Model X price will be reduced to $78K in January 2024
- Thread starter Sunshine Speed
- Start date
Super_Popular
Well-Known Member
It's an interesting video and some of his speculation seems reasonable, but I don't agree with his comments about inflation and rising costs being all bullshit and corporate greed. Supply chain is still an issue (I work in government Acquisition), and inflation is very real. While the lower income types he primarily talks about are struggling with the cost of cars right now, I don't see some massive reckoning coming. I was reading an article recently that talked about how the economy has impacted housing costs, and that the average payment of a two-story home in the US has gone from around $2700/month 2 years ago to close to $4500/month now, and yet people have just accepted that this is the new normal. Inventory still doesn't sit on the market. Yes, there are other reasons for this, but the fact is that people are still able to buy these homes, and realtors report acceptance on the part of homebuyers when faced with these new realities.
One reason people can afford to do this is that salaries have gone up across the board by a massive amount also. So for all the low income/bad credit types that are ditching these beat up cars they can't make payments on (you know, the kind of people that are either duped into accepting the ridiculous interest rates they discuss in the video, or the type that are so bad with money they have no choice), there are plenty of people out there making 20% more than they were a few years ago sitting on cheap fixed rate mortgages.
I am not confident at all the higher end new inventory will see plummeting prices the way he claims the older models will be (which I do agree with), but I could see it having a lesser secondary effect. What I'm more worried about is that interest rates will continue to climb for a while.
But inflation has flattened out lately and the last decision by the fed was to halt the rise of interest rates. I see interest rates being stagnant through 4th quarter and then starting to drop in Q1 and Q2. Once interest rates start cooling off, loans and big purchases start rising, which means demand picks up and supply dwindles. So I don’t see Tesla’s high end cars being any cheaper than they are this quarter.
I think it’s going to drop Shaina by at least 2/3k with the current interest rates. I don’t see the interest rates dropping in the next two years, Cheap or JPM said interest rate at the bank level will be near 7% or higher. Tesla’s goal is to sell more cars by lowering the price to move volumes. Banks are paying higher interest to saving or fixed cd’s right now. Just sit back and enjoy the ride. I too want to get and , but it’s on hold. Decided to purchase a MYLR for my father instead with the price drop of yesterday.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
One additional thing to consider: starting in January, in the US the IRA tax credit becomes a point of sale credit—meaning you get it as a discount immediately when you purchase the car, vs as a reduction in your tax bill.
This is an additional incentive for the consumer, an item in favor of prices maintaining or increasing in January instead of going down.
This is an additional incentive for the consumer, an item in favor of prices maintaining or increasing in January instead of going down.
I can see them keeping it at $79,990, but making the choice of white vs cream vs black interiors free options. This will ensure all X orders are 80k which is a win win because it gives customers the tax credit and gives Tesla the maximum amount of revenue per vehicle order (good for shareholders/numbers). It's the same reason it makes sense for them to include all colors the same price even if some cost more for them to make, because they would rather have all orders be $79,990 regardless of spec than some be $78,000.
Would be a bit painful for Us though because We just took delivery of a 2023 X and really would have preferred the white interior, but couldn't justify it being a $9500 option considering we wouldn't be able to use the credit. We're still ecstatic with the car regardless! Cheers
Would be a bit painful for Us though because We just took delivery of a 2023 X and really would have preferred the white interior, but couldn't justify it being a $9500 option considering we wouldn't be able to use the credit. We're still ecstatic with the car regardless! Cheers
NJturtlePower
Living the Dream, Driving the Future!
But if the X loses half ($3750) or full $7500 qualification was it worth waiting?
I'm taking my full $7500 at tax time and running with it, same as I did with my early Model 3 in 2018 before they to lost the credit for a few years due to the at the time 200k unit manufacture caps now lifted in the latest EV bill.
Then there will be thread bitching about losing out and blaming Tesla even though they are clearly listing loss of tax incentive on the website as a posibility.
People can wait for months or years on the NEXT best thing, incentives or updates, but in the end IMO grab what you can when its freely on the table and enjoy the ride.
Super_Popular
Well-Known Member
And what sucks with this is that if you dont qualify when you file you have to pay the difference with your taxes.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
No--just pointing out perhaps one thing that would help keep Tesla from lowering prices further.
NJturtlePower
Living the Dream, Driving the Future!
YouTubers are so f****** annoying. Can’t stand their clickbait bullsh*t. Especially the thumbnails. Douche
This is how I look at it last year I owed exactly 9k in federal income tax in which I cut a check every year, so what that means is if the same liability this is the same , they I only owe the government $1,500. It simple math. You have to owe the government that type of money in order to the get the credit.
I believe the rules for that has changed in 2024. Correct me if I'm wrong.
"The guidance also provides proposed eligibility rules for the previously owned clean vehicle credit that would give consumers more certainty regarding their ability to claim and to transfer the credit. The guidance would clarify that eligible consumers may transfer the full value of the new or previously owned vehicle credit regardless of their individual tax liability."
My interpretation is regardless of how much you owe the government, as long as you meet the income limits in MAGI in 2023 or 2024, you get the full eligible tax credit for the vehicle, not up to what you owe to the fed. As an example, if you only owed the government $3k in federal taxes, you still get $7500 off the POS for eligible EVs and you do not have to repay the difference back as long as you meet the income limits for the federal tax credit.
Yes, and rest assured dealers with begin to allow prices to creep up to suck up some of that tax credit or use the proverbial above sticker additions.
I would expect this will also benefit Telsa who doesn't have to deal with the pesky dealer network.
Tiger
Active Member
I read about that. It makes sense. Full sized 100kWh battery and only a single motor instead of two. Should be more efficient. At the cost of power, of course.
Edit: I don't even know why Kia bothered to make those RWD models. 215 and 201 hp for the Light and Long Range variants, resp, is a ridiculous amount of power for what will probably be a 5500 lb vehicle. EV or not, I don't see them selling well at all. Luckily, the price jump to the AWD models isn't huge, but even those seem pretty underwhemling in an age of so many >400hp EVs. I'm also baffled on why/how going from the Land/Wind to the GT gives the same hp but more torque...
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Hbcubs
Member
I was pretty intrigued with the EV9. The space and the practicality was nice but it once the specs were released it was a no-go.
Tiger
Active Member
They could probably solve the AWD efficiency by implementing a axle-decoupling coasting mode like in the Tesla Semi or Hyundai/KIA eGMP platform?
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