Prediction, in Which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States "Poll"

[David_Cary]

Do you not believe the Exxon scientists? There predictions in the 1980s were so close to right on it is truly amazing. Exxon has always been able to afford really good people. Nowadays, really good disinformation spreaders.

Do you somehow think that rising temperatures will be a good thing? I mean, in some ways they will be but the amount of change will be really hard to compensate for. Water supplies and agriculture are really picky.

Heck - seafood is really picky. How are your Alaskan crab, your pacific salmon this year? I am sure a lot of this can be blamed on overfishing but from my understanding, they are not really sure what is happening. The 2021 heat dome killed 1 billion sea creatures. I am sure some might have just been made infertile.

Do you think it is an accident of history that modern civilization developed in moderate climates? And the richest parts of the modern world are moderate climates? Or that the happiest countries are pretty far North?

 

[SalisburySam]

And another bit of reality smacks one in the face: our area of North Carolina has been in the 7b planting hardiness zone* for, like, forever. It has been redesignated recently as zone 8a, a warmer zone. While other things go on, North Carolina is a significant agricultural area and this matters.

*the standard developed and maintained by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) by which gardeners and growers can determine which perennial plants are most likely to thrive at a location. The map is based on the average annual extreme minimum winter temperature, displayed as 10-degree F zones and 5-degree F half zones.

 

[henderrj]

"The only two you have is a hammer, every problem begins to look like a nail." Cherry picking facts to come to a broad conclusion is not wise. You need to look at the whole picture. Read the people who disagree with you, and see if there isn't something that they have right. I usually find they do. Just as you do! But the big picture is a little more complex than that. Yes, things have been getting worse for a while. Is it all human caused? How much have we changed the human cause? Is the us alone in these changes? There's a lot, a lot more than the simple picture you put forth. But, that's not the purpose of this thread.

US sales of EVs look to easily pass 50% growth this year. If we do get 2 million sales this year, and a 50% growth next year that makes it 3 million. 2025 would then be 4.5 million. 2026, 6.75. How long can we do a sustained 50% growth per year? It's only a single look at the idea, and is probably faulty from that reason alone. But it is interesting!

 

[HankE-LA]

I worked in support of offshore oil and gas for 40 years as a helicopter mechanic. Even based offshore with my aircraft for a few years. I kind of have a different perspective. You would think that with my background I'd be an ICE guy forever. Not true.

Watching the industry for decades I've seen near shore lease blocks go completely dry. Not a drop of oil or a bubble of gas to extract. Every few years survey ships with the latest tech scour the dead blocks in the hope of finding a random pocket that makes extraction cost effective. Nothing in the last 20 years for most. As I told my crew when I retired in 2020, the easy oil has been got. Back when I was offshore being in 150' of water was fairly deep and there were ones deeper but certainly none more that 1000'. For a few million you could get a platform built and deployed to where the drilling ship had capped the well. Today it costs billions to put a drilling and production platform in place. And oh, it will be in some serious deep water. Like 8,000 feet.

At this time we still need oil. I'm not going to bore you with a list of end products that are made with oil that we can't do without. Oil and gas is a finite resource. Using oil that is turned into gasoline just to burn it in an internal combustion engine no longer makes sense to me. Time to diversify. Wind, solar, EVs. All should be on the table.

So, to the question. At what point do EV sales hit 50% in the US? My theory is if we hit 50% we've hit market saturation. There will be die hards that will never give up their ICE vehicles for whatever reason no matter what. For some going EV just isn't practical. Others are not convinced the charging infrastructure is where it needs to be to make the switch. And to the last statement I somewhat agree. We've all seen the reports of long lines at some SC stations.

Maybe a better question is when will EV sales hit 33% in the US? At this point one in three vehicles sold is an EV which makes it main stream to the average consumer. I believe it won't be that long where EV sales hit 25%. Growth will slow somewhat while making our way to 33%. That last 17%? Decades. Two things have to happen to hit the 50% adoption rate. Automakers have to turn out EVs that are affordable, makes a profit for them, have decent range, charge quickly, and doesn't force the consumer to put up with weird quirks. Nobody checks all the boxes at this point. Second the charging infrastructure has got to be better. Visualize the gas stations in your area. Now remove half the pumps and install EV chargers. That's where we have to be.

 

[henderrj]

I worked in support of offshore oil and gas for 40 years as a helicopter mechanic. Even based offshore with my aircraft for a few years. I kind of have a different perspective. You would think that with my background I'd be an ICE guy forever. Not true.

Watching the industry for decades I've seen near shore lease blocks go completely dry. Not a drop of oil or a bubble of gas to extract. Every few years survey ships with the latest tech scour the dead blocks in the hope of finding a random pocket that makes extraction cost effective. Nothing in the last 20 years for most. As I told my crew when I retired in 2020, the easy oil has been got. Back when I was offshore being in 150' of water was fairly deep and there were ones deeper but certainly none more that 1000'. For a few million you could get a platform built and deployed to where the drilling ship had capped the well. Today it costs billions to put a drilling and production platform in place. And oh, it will be in some serious deep water. Like 8,000 feet.

At this time we still need oil. I'm not going to bore you with a list of end products that are made with oil that we can't do without. Oil and gas is a finite resource. Using oil that is turned into gasoline just to burn it in an internal combustion engine no longer makes sense to me. Time to diversify. Wind, solar, EVs. All should be on the table.

So, to the question. At what point do EV sales hit 50% in the US? My theory is if we hit 50% we've hit market saturation. There will be die hards that will never give up their ICE vehicles for whatever reason no matter what. For some going EV just isn't practical. Others are not convinced the charging infrastructure is where it needs to be to make the switch. And to the last statement I somewhat agree. We've all seen the reports of long lines at some SC stations.

Maybe a better question is when will EV sales hit 33% in the US? At this point one in three vehicles sold is an EV which makes it main stream to the average consumer. I believe it won't be that long where EV sales hit 25%. Growth will slow somewhat while making our way to 33%. That last 17%? Decades. Two things have to happen to hit the 50% adoption rate. Automakers have to turn out EVs that are affordable, makes a profit for them, have decent range, charge quickly, and doesn't force the consumer to put up with weird quirks. Nobody checks all the boxes at this point. Second the charging infrastructure has got to be better. Visualize the gas stations in your area. Now remove half the pumps and install EV chargers. That's where we have to be.

At most all of what you said. But that last paragraph, do you drive an EV now? The charging infrastructure is mostly done at home or work. That's where it has to be set up. Yes, I know that my own a garage is not common for every person. My day is for the bulk of people who can afford an EV at this time. I think getting level 2 chargers at work spaces is probably the last bit we need for adoption. And that's just a matter of putting them into the parking lots. Not that that's easy! But it is simple.

I think we will zoom past 50% myself. I've taken DieHard muscle car guys, and they are instantly amazed at the torque of just my standard Model S or now model x. They are not all that hard to convince. Additionally, once the number of ice vehicles starts to drop off, long after 50% of the sales are evs, gas stations will start shutting down. It'll get harder and more expensive and you'll have a collapse of the day-to-day use ice vehicles. It'll be relegated to parades like the steam engines are now. That is probably a few decades away.

 

[dakhlkt22]

As I've read this thread, I've realized that I was way too optimistic about when we'd reach 50%. A lot of it will be driven by the price of EVs I think. If anyone including Tesla actually starts selling a good enough EV for $25K, then that could really accelerate EV adoption. If it continues to be Model 3 and above type vehicles, it will be a lot longer wait but I am still hopeful that adoption will at some point become exponential as EV ownership becomes more normalized and perceived as less exotic.

 

[HankE-LA]

At most all of what you said. But that last paragraph, do you drive an EV now? The charging infrastructure is mostly done at home or work. That's where it has to be set up. Yes, I know that my own a garage is not common for every person. My day is for the bulk of people who can afford an EV at this time. I think getting level 2 chargers at work spaces is probably the last bit we need for adoption. And that's just a matter of putting them into the parking lots. Not that that's easy! But it is simple.

I think we will zoom past 50% myself. I've taken DieHard muscle car guys, and they are instantly amazed at the torque of just my standard Model S or now model x. They are not all that hard to convince. Additionally, once the number of ice vehicles starts to drop off, long after 50% of the sales are evs, gas stations will start shutting down. It'll get harder and more expensive and you'll have a collapse of the day-to-day use ice vehicles. It'll be relegated to parades like the steam engines are now. That is probably a few decades away.

Do I have an EV? Not yet. Waiting for the M3 Highland to come out. Have taken a test drive of the Hyundai Ionic 5 however. I can see why it was Motor Trends SUV of the year.

To charging. Yeah, I did neglect to take in account that home charging for local trips will be the norm. Still, I stand by that public charging infrastructure still needs better coverage if we want to see higher adoption rates. For example, in my parish (Louisiana county) there is not a single public charging station. None. To someone who wants to road trip more than 200 miles round trip, having to go out of your way to find public charging is unacceptable to the average ICE car driver.

Charging at work. If you're getting free charging at work, rock on! I don't see that lasting forever however. Some bean counter in the company is going to see the electricity costs and force the company to either shut down the chargers or turn them into charge for fee. In my case I'm retired so charging at work is not on the front burner.

BP is making a strong move by purchasing Tesla Superchargers for installation in its network of fuel stations. As of today there isn't a BP gas station in all of Louisiana. The Deepwater Horizon blowout basically made the brand toxic. I'll be watching this closely to see if other oil companies follow suit.

I'm still sticking with 50% as market saturation. A buddy of mine lives in the sticks. Directions to his house include turn off the paved road to the gravel road. Then at the gravel road intersection make a left. At the next gravel road intersection take a right. His closest public charger is 40 miles away. For him it makes absolutely no sense to go EV. Besides he's an EV hater and there are many like him once you get out of urban areas.

 

[nwdiver]

So THAT's how all these people that whine about 'needing' a car with 400 miles of range do it....

 

[David_Cary]

The amount of people like your buddy that lives in the sticks buying new cars is probably 1% of buyers. The vast majority of the population does not live like that and the ones that do aren't generally buying new cars.

You live in a parish with zero public chargers. Mine looks to be 100. I can walk to 2 (one is in apartment complex but open to public). That isn't head count, that is location. We have 10 fast charger locations - 5 Tesla, 5 EA. One is a mile away so I could walk but not regularly (and why would I to a fast charger?).

My county is one of the fastest growing in the US. I am quite sure that it is growing faster than any parish in LA. Our MSA will surpass the state of LA by 2050 if not sooner. If I get in my car fully charged up, I suspect I can reach 100 superchargers. If I had a new S - it might be 200 (I have a Y). I have never waited at a supercharger - ever. I have owned a Tesla since 2015.

Mine you my state had 1 fast charger (at a University behind lock/key) in 2013. I presume we know have 200 or so.
LA is one of the 3 states (out of 50 of course) that is completely immersed in oil (TX and AK the others). So the lack of EV anything is expected and not surprising. LA could buy 10% EVs and the country could be 90% EVs and that wouldn't surprise me. So I wouldn't ever extrapolate your local experience.

 

[dakhlkt22]

Do I have an EV? Not yet. Waiting for the M3 Highland to come out. Have taken a test drive of the Hyundai Ionic 5 however. I can see why it was Motor Trends SUV of the year.

To charging. Yeah, I did neglect to take in account that home charging for local trips will be the norm. Still, I stand by that public charging infrastructure still needs better coverage if we want to see higher adoption rates. For example, in my parish (Louisiana county) there is not a single public charging station. None. To someone who wants to road trip more than 200 miles round trip, having to go out of your way to find public charging is unacceptable to the average ICE car driver.

Charging at work. If you're getting free charging at work, rock on! I don't see that lasting forever however. Some bean counter in the company is going to see the electricity costs and force the company to either shut down the chargers or turn them into charge for fee. In my case I'm retired so charging at work is not on the front burner.

BP is making a strong move by purchasing Tesla Superchargers for installation in its network of fuel stations. As of today there isn't a BP gas station in all of Louisiana. The Deepwater Horizon blowout basically made the brand toxic. I'll be watching this closely to see if other oil companies follow suit.

I'm still sticking with 50% as market saturation. A buddy of mine lives in the sticks. Directions to his house include turn off the paved road to the gravel road. Then at the gravel road intersection make a left. At the next gravel road intersection take a right. His closest public charger is 40 miles away. For him it makes absolutely no sense to go EV. Besides he's an EV hater and there are many like him once you get out of urban areas.

They only need enough chargers to support EVs traveling through a state. If people with EVs don't live in or visit Louisiana, then they won't build them.

I'm guessing that by now, at least Tesla has a minimum number of chargers in every state. You might not have one in your Louisiana parish, but the real question is can you reach your destination somewhere else in Louisiana through a combination of 270 or mile range + charging? If so, then the Tesla network has served its purpose.

 

[SalisburySam]

As I've read this thread, I've realized that I was way too optimistic about when we'd reach 50%. A lot of it will be driven by the price of EVs I think.

Price is a big consideration indeed. Not sure if it is the biggest one though. I’d put pricing behind ideology and charging network, in that order.

If anyone including Tesla actually starts selling a good enough EV for $25K, then that could really accelerate EV adoption.

Maybe, but I don’t think that’s a given. With average new car pricing exceeding $45k, I’d argue that’s the hurdle to get below, not a much lower $25k. Just making pricing competitive with the average ICE should be the immediate goal, then move to address whatever part of the market you wish, including those looking for low price beaters. Side note: I’m continuously surprised at inflation and how little one gets for a $25k vehicle. I fondly recall purchasing my first new Corvette, a 1969, for the then eye-popping price of $3600 including tax, title, and registration. My Model 3 in 2018 cost what 17 of those Corvettes did back in 1969. Just a sad observation.

 

[henderrj]

Do I have an EV? Not yet. Waiting for the M3 Highland to come out. Have taken a test drive of the Hyundai Ionic 5 however. I can see why it was Motor Trends SUV of the year.

To charging. Yeah, I did neglect to take in account that home charging for local trips will be the norm. Still, I stand by that public charging infrastructure still needs better coverage if we want to see higher adoption rates. For example, in my parish (Louisiana county) there is not a single public charging station. None. To someone who wants to road trip more than 200 miles round trip, having to go out of your way to find public charging is unacceptable to the average ICE car driver.

Charging at work. If you're getting free charging at work, rock on! I don't see that lasting forever however. Some bean counter in the company is going to see the electricity costs and force the company to either shut down the chargers or turn them into charge for fee. In my case I'm retired so charging at work is not on the front burner.

BP is making a strong move by purchasing Tesla Superchargers for installation in its network of fuel stations. As of today there isn't a BP gas station in all of Louisiana. The Deepwater Horizon blowout basically made the brand toxic. I'll be watching this closely to see if other oil companies follow suit.

I'm still sticking with 50% as market saturation. A buddy of mine lives in the sticks. Directions to his house include turn off the paved road to the gravel road. Then at the gravel road intersection make a left. At the next gravel road intersection take a right. His closest public charger is 40 miles away. For him it makes absolutely no sense to go EV. Besides he's an EV hater and there are many like him once you get out of urban areas.

Welcome to the site! I too spent some time perusing TMC before purchasing my first model S, although that was in 2015. It takes quite a bit of time to get comfortable with the issue of range, range anxiety. But I can tell you that when we get that first model S, I used 85 rear wheel drive AP1 machine, we immediately took off around the US and did something like five or six thousand miles. Didn't even have a portable charging unit at all, so it depended entirely on superchargers. Let me assure you, they were way less prevalent than now. But I went through the back roads of New Mexico, pretty much everywhere. We had a great time. Between the two vehicles we've put something like 250,000 miles on the Tesla supercharger network. It's really a lot easier than you think it is.

The advance of purchasing EVS does depend someone price, but more than that on word of mouth. As each new person buys one, at least 10 other potential purchasers see it and understand the value. That's what's going to cause the growth. Well, and the fact that they finally have enough batteries to make all those cars! Which will also drive down the price, which will also drive up the sales, etc.

 

[cwerdna]

Why automakers are turning to hybrids in the middle of the industry's EV transition

Automakers are reconsidering the viability of hybrid vehicles to appease consumer demand and avoid costly penalties related to federal fuel economy standards.

www.cnbc.com

 

[E90alex]

Why automakers are turning to hybrids in the middle of the industry's EV transition

Automakers are reconsidering the viability of hybrid vehicles to appease consumer demand and avoid costly penalties related to federal fuel economy standards.

www.cnbc.com

IMO all ICE vehicles should have been hybrid at a minimum by now (and no mild hybrids don’t count).

 

[dakhlkt22]

IMO all ICE vehicles should have been hybrid at a minimum by now (and no mild hybrids don’t count).

It certainly seems like this will be Toyota's strategy, given the announcement about the 2025 Camry.

Could easily see where the market becomes hybrid vs BEV, with ICE relegated to certain niches like high end sports cars or the largest trucks/SUVs but all the OEMs selling hybrid-only for their mass market models.

 

[h2ofun]

Hybrids make so much more sense than a 100% EV

 

[nwdiver]

Hybrids make so much more sense than a 100% EV

If you ignore the inherent laziness/ignorance of people.

Many People Aren't Plugging In Their PHEVs, According To Study​

 

[SDRick]

Hybrids make so much more sense than a 100% EV

That would depend on one's use. Particularly in every day urban, going to work, going to the grocery store use there is no need to carry around the additional complexity, maintenance and redundancy of ICE. In this respect, hybrids are the worst of both worlds.

 

[E90alex]

That would depend on one's use. Particularly in every day urban, going to work, going to the grocery store use there is no need to carry around the additional complexity, maintenance and redundancy of ICE. In this respect, hybrids are the worst of both worlds.

If all new ICE were hybrids (not even PHEV, just regular hybrids), it would have a much bigger impact on reducing fossil fuel use and carbon emissions than trying to transition the world directly to BEV.

If you can afford a BEV and it works for your use case, then yes that’s great. But there A LOT of people that can’t afford an EV and/or have no means to charge it. Relying on public charging is a big hindrance at the moment since the infrastructure is nowhere near where it needs to be to support a major shift to EVs.

 

[nwdiver]

since the infrastructure is nowhere near where it needs to be to support a major shift to EVs.

And less motivation to solve that problem would help?