While an 80kwh pack is intriguing, I certainly wouldn't be shelling out $40k for it and they won't be making it free or as a loss leader.
Absent something new in the battery area, I'd say my own "$40k" is currently waiting on adding a Gen III that will hopefully have longer range and/or supercharging since my Roadster cannot get it yet. (Ok, better make that "$50k":wink
. Different if my current pack goes kaput, but I'd rather pay $40k for 80kwh than 55kwh.
But I don't know that an 80kwh Roadster pack has to be $40k out of pocket for the customer, e.g., if you are trading in an otherwise-working 55kwh pack that passes all the service tests. Maybe it's $25-30k (???) with a trade-in, which gives Tesla a more affordable refurb pack for other owners. All hypothetical.
As bonnie said there are owners who prepaid for a replacement pack at time of purchase, modeled on ~7 year timeframe. I'd certainly want a new pack if I prepaid for it (unless the agreement said otherwise)!
I've said before that the positive PR of having the Roadster range jump would be priceless on the perception side (at 80 kwh, that's ~276 ideal miles std and ~350 range). Even at $40k a few owners would get it and show it. Put a couple of those in loaner Roadsters, akin to showing the Model S P85's, or in the CPO inventory. Allow the press to drive. Over 25,000 Model S owners then look forward to potential upgrade to ~400 mile pack, circa end of warranty. Many more non-owners decide the range issue is dead. Etc.:biggrin:
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I should add that I don't currently expect the surprise to be a pack upgrade - the buzz for upgrades has been muted enough over the past year+ that it would genuinely be a surprise to me (albeit a very welcome one).
My very cloudy crystal ball says it's option 3 to remove the pilot signal issue and ultimately allow Roadsters to connect and 70A charge at all the same locations that Model S can charge. Applies both to certain J1772's as well as any Tesla-branded location. It would help bring the 'network' factor back to Roadsters, which is a big part of the value prop in the rest of the brand.