Thank you for so elequently reiterating something I have been telling my friends, twitter buddies and even the shorts on twitter.... I’ve been drawing a chart that appears to be the largest down wedge since the SolarCity/Mark Spiegel double bottom bounce off 180. And the down wedge will have an apex at 250 and right around when the p&d numbers and court drama happens. Aprox a week from now. I think we all have an idea how this will run (hint: long, popcorn, ready for interesting chop)
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Thank you for so elequently reiterating something I have been telling my friends, twitter buddies and even the shorts on twitter.... I’ve been drawing a chart that appears to be the largest down wedge since the SolarCity/Mark Spiegel double bottom bounce off 180. And the down wedge will have an apex at 250 and right around when the p&d numbers and court drama happens. Aprox a week from now. I think we all have an idea how this will run (hint: long, popcorn, ready for interesting chop)
Looking at TSLA open interest for Friday, I see a fair number of 275 and 280 strike calls expiring. It could be that a hedge fund sold a lot of these and besides having a core short position in TSLA they're also trying to protect the Friday calls they sold.
Another explanation is that 275 is a significant number (halfway between 250 and 300) and shorts are worried that if TSLA climbs above and stays there the buyers will start getting frisky and the whole dread and doomsday scenario gets replaced with optimism as longs see an opportunity for a nice climb ahead.
Maybe someone had an over / under with their bookie @ 275?
Bookies are more honest than Wall Street. At least there you get realistic odds and they can't manipulate every outcome like they can with equity prices. They also don't have frontrunning and high speed computerized bets that steal a cut out of every trade and shorts that manipulate the outcome out of touch with reality. Give me a good old bookie every day over the thieves on the stock markets.
Agreed - the one consolation is that the shorts will get plasma-incinerated once there is the truly big positive event that causes the ripping short squeeze of the millennia! We will all be vindicated then.Bookies are more honest than Wall Street. At least there you get realistic odds and they can't manipulate every outcome like they can with equity prices. They also don't have frontrunning and high speed computerized bets that steal a cut out of every trade and shorts that manipulate the outcome out of touch with reality. Give me a good old bookie every day over the thieves on the stock markets.
It won't be the professional short criminals that get hurt it will be the clueless pigs that believe the crazy lies that get slaughtered.
Today was a particularly bullish day for TSLA as the macros were down but TSLA managed to climb an addition $7 today. The up and down ferocity of trading in the first hour suggests that the shorts were doing some mischief near opening, but when the NASDAQ did a swan dive that concluded a little before noon, TSLA followed it down (without giving up its relative gains, however), and once the NASDAQ began a recover, TSLA shot higher with much more strength than the NASDAQ. We saw apparent repeated capping at 275. I suspect if tomorrow is a positive trading day for TSLA it should have the thrust to topple 275 in the higher volume morning hours. Trading in the final minute of market trading was brisk with 177K shares trading hands. Overall volume of TSLA was about normal, which is a good place for a rise on relatively little news.
News:
* Barrons: Excessive Tesla Negativity recently (no kidding??)
* Musk uses Twitter wisely says Tesla chair
* Jeffries give TSLA an upgrade with $450 price target
from the Jeffries article:
Oppenheimer lifted their price target on shares of Tesla from $418.00 to $437.00 and gave the company an “outperform” rating in a report on Thursday, January 31st. Berenberg Bank set a $500.00 price target on shares of Tesla and gave the company a “buy” rating in a report on Friday, March 1st. Canaccord Genuity upgraded shares of Tesla from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating and lifted their price target for the company from $330.00 to $450.00 in a report on Monday, February 11th. Goldman Sachs Group restated a “sell” rating and issued a $225.00 target price on shares of Tesla in a report on Tuesday, January 22nd. Finally, JPMorgan Chase & Co. set a $220.00 target price on shares of Tesla and gave the stock a “sell” rating in a report on Thursday, January 3rd. Fourteen equities research analysts have rated the stock with a sell rating, thirteen have assigned a hold rating and thirteen have given a buy rating to the company. The stock currently has a consensus rating of “Hold” and a consensus price target of $327.03.
The NASDAQ closed down 0.63%, but negative macros didn't stop TSLA today
Meanwhile, if you look at the shorts adding nearly 4 million additional shares in March, you realize all of that shorting has been partly responsible for some of the dip of TSLA this month. The good news is that as the stock price recovers, the departure of shorts will add rocket fuel to the climb. Can't wait.
Looking at the tech chart, you can see that this bounce off the lower bollinger band has more spunk than the previous two, which is encouraging. Further, we lacked the positive NASDAQ of yesterday, and so the rise is all the more bullish. The mid-bb is only about $5 above our current position, which, once surpassed, would allow both the upper and lower bbs to start a climb. Notice the upturn in the lower bb today. This is a great sign because we want to get over this series of recurring dips that keep following the lower bb down.
Looking forward to the rest of this week's trading. I see a change of heart in the prevailing attitude toward Tesla this week, particularly with multiple analysts raising price targets into the 400-500 range this month. As long as no big negative surprises come out of the SEC decision and the Q1 P&D report and ER, TSLA should be ready to recover lost territory.
Conditions:
* Dow down 32 (0.13%)
* NASDAQ down 48 (0.63%)
* TSLA 274.83, up 7.06 (2.64%)
* TSLA volume 8.8M shares
* Oil 59.30
* Percent of selling tagged to TSLA shorts: 37%
Last edited:
Thanks Papafox! 275 and 285 could be magic numbers. But when it cross 305. This thing will fly high. Hope that will happen and never go back again. Hope the Q1 is not too bad. But I think this time it is all about Q2 and next. If they hint that Q2 and Q3 will do great, I think we all will be very happy!
. Hope the Q1 is not too bad. But I think this time it is all about Q2 and next. If they hint that Q2 and Q3 will do great, I think we all will be very happy!
Today was a slightly green day for the macros, which is a good environment for TSLA to trade in. Volume was relatively light, which is indicative of calm investors and also a good sign. Shorts were not able to keep TSLA below 275 with the typical morning volumes. They tried to push the stock below during the pre-noon NASDAQ dip, but when TSLA managed to get into the final half hour without a significant bear attack, investors felt their mojo and bid TSLA higher. We're approaching a week from the Production and Delivery report, and so we may continue to see positioning for the report as investors and institutions on the sidelines get back in.
Overall, I'm bullish about TSLA right now. Worldwide demand for Model 3 has really shown itself to be substantial and North American demand has recovered from the sniffles it was suffering from right after Q4. Please check out this post by @Fact Checking , regarding strong European demand and high take rate on autopilot and FSD. Too few low-end M3s are being delivered in Q1 to substantially affect the margins, and so I think margins will be ok in Q1, along with higher than expected M3 deliveries. The analysts love to engineer a weak point to complain about, and I think that'll be S&X deliveries in Q1 because the analyst estimates are too high and I think Tesla will deliver fewer than 20K S&X in Q1. Thus, there's a chance of a dip after the P&D report next week, but there's also the chance that Model 3 pulls the SP higher. I'd rather be in than on the sidelines though because clearly investors are realizing that these prices are low for a Tesla executing as well as it is at the moment.
The NASDAQ closed up a modest 0.34% today. TSLA showed definite influences by the NASDAQ today.
Shorts were tagged with 42% of TSLA selling today
Looking at the technical chart, you can see that TSLA closed above the mid bollinger band today, switching its effect upon the other BBs from pulling down to slowly pulling up, which is what we like. You can see the lower bb has responded to both the higher SP and the return of TSLA to smaller price movements closer to the mid bb, which in turn has caused the upper bb to squeeze closer to the mid as well. The good news is that the lower bb is now offering some nice support if it is needed.
I just learned today that this thread has been honored as the new "sticky" thread in the investor section, so it should be a bit easier to find once you get used to the new location.
Conditions:
* Dow up 92 (0.36%)
* NASDAQ up 26 (0.34%)
* TSLA 278.62, up 3.79 (1.38%)
* TSLA volume 6.8M shares
* Oil 59.54
* Percent of selling tagged to TSLA shorts: 42%
Last edited:
Mod(s): We were unanimous to promote your thread to here. Job well done, please keep it up. But want to remind everyone that most discussion should not be posted in this thread, instead discuss in the main thread. --ggr.
Antares Nebula
Active Member
Congrats Papafox on making the sticky thread! Rightfully earned!
Today was a nice up day for the macros and they exerted some pull on TSLA. In morning trading, TSLA took a bit of a hit from downgrades by both JP Morgan and Deutsche Bank, but shook it off and closed up for the day. Considering the downgrades and this being option expiration date with lots of 275 and 280 calls in play, TSLA showed great resilience.
News:
JP Morgan downgrades TSLA from $230 PT to $215
Deutsche Bank downgrades TSLA from buy to hold but raises PT from $245 to $280
The big dip then recovery in after-hours trading is just some type of artifact, as trading volume did not justify such a jump.
Shorts were tagged with only 35% of TSLA trading today
Looking at the tech chart, you can see the lower bb has been making a fine recovery with the SP above the mid bollinger band now.
My comments are kept to a minimum today as I have an intense work weekend. For the week, TSLA close at 279.86, up 15.33 from last Friday's 264.53. Notably, we've broken the pattern of the past couple weeks of red Fridays and then additional red on the following Monday. This week turned into solid buying as the SP adjusts prior to next week's Production and Deliveries report. Have a great weekend.
Conditions:
* Dow up 211 (0.82%)
* NASDAQ up 60 (0.78%)
* TSLA 279.86, up 1.24 (0.45%)
* TSLA volume 6.0M shares
* Oil 60.14
* Percent of selling tagged to TSLA shorts: 35%
Thanks as usual for the excellent analysis! Hope you get your work done.
The macros have been positive recently and today's strong macros set TSLA up for another nice climb as investors position for the Q1 Production and Delivery report, which could be out as early as tomorrow. The strong and steady performance of the NASDAQ gave TSLA bears very little ammo to spring a big dip on the stock today. Looking at the daily chart ahead, you can see attempted MMDs shortly after opening, but after three defeats the bulls took over and TSLA enjoyed a very fine day. Interestingly, we saw over 250K shares trade hands in the final minute of market trading, the time when shorts who are exiting prefer to get out because it has the least affect upon the stock price. Keep in mind we have a nice load of shorts once again on board as we approach the P&D report.
Regarding news, this article in Barron's gives a nice synopsis. Basically, the market responded favorably this weekend when Elon tweeted amazing work by Tesla delivery teams, especially in Europe and China. The article also mentioned how Canaccord Genuity analyst Jed Dorsheimer reiterated a Buy rating and a $450 price and stated what we already know, which is that the Model 3 drives and accelerates like a Porsche 911 but costs closer to an Audi A4 or BMW 300 series.
Today we also saw a CNN hit piece that might not be a hit piece but is inadvertently acting as one because the article's writer is so clueless. I'm guessing he looked at the lowest Model 3 delivery guesses by analysts and went a bit lower, but included in his 50,000 vehicles estimate all Teslas delivered in the quarter. As long as the media is this clueless and some readers are actually believing this drivel, then some shorts are being set up for significant surprises come the P&D report.
The NASDAQ opened way up today and then steadily crept higher for a 1.29% gain
Looking at the tech chart, check out the strength of this bounce off the lower bollinger band, compared to other recent bounces. We'll want to see that upper bollinger band start heading higher soon because it'll offer some resistance on the way up if news is good. Keep in mind, too, that good macros have been part of the reason for this nice rate of recovery. Where we go from here in the short term primarily depends upon the upcoming P&D report.
Conditions:
* Dow up 330 (1.27%)
* NASDAQ up 100 (1.29%)
* TSLA 289.18, up 9.32 (3.33%)
* TSLA volume 8.1M shares
* Oil 61.79
* FINRA Percent of TSLA trading by shorts: 32%
Welcome to jittery Tuesday with TSLA trading. The shorts apparently put forward a few attempts at pulling TSLA down in the morning as the NASDAQ was still in the red, but TSLA kept bouncing back. Note that the trading isn't quite as dramatic as it appears on the daily chart because the scale is only $1 per horizontal line. Nonetheless, even with the NASDAQ rising throughout the day, the bears kept TSLA in the red as some longs picked up a case of the jitters while waiting for the P&D report to come out. Note that volume was a mere 5.5 million shares today for TSLA, indicating that most longs are simply setting down to wait for the report.
Once we moved into late after-hours trading the situation changed, however, with the SP rising as shorts started getting the jitters and covering. Relax longs, you've placed your bet, and whether it blossoms tomorrow after the P&D, next week (after Judge Nathan releases her decision), or later in the year as TSLA joins the S&P 500, chances are your bet will pay off this year.
The NASDAQ began in the red but climbed into the green in mid-morning and closed up 0.25%. The DOW lost about that much, giving the macros a relatively neutral stance for the day.
In other news, in this video Cramer shows why TSLA may be going much higher. Two things I found interesting:
* Cramer shows the charts of expert Bob Moreno to demonstrate that TSLA has just about run through it's consolidation in it's third level and is ready to go higher. It's really the same presentation that @TrendTrader007 gave us recently. You saw it first here, though!
* I always have thought that Cramer has used his vast media exposure to attempt getting Elon Musk removed from his position at Tesla, first by egging on the SEC, and more recently by egging on Judge Nathan. Several business TV notables are what I would call "Tesla bullies" and Cramer is one of them. How do you deal with a bully? You stand up to him. The media reacted badly when Elon questioned Linnette Lopez (accusing Musk of being the bully), but Cramer is an entirely different story. I've noticed Cramer a bit better behaved after Elon called him out on Twitter. Let's see where we go from here, but Cramer doesn't want to be nice to Musk and he also doesn't want to be seen as sitting on the wrong side of the Tesla equation if TSLA takes off for the stratosphere, and so he uses a 3rd party to suggest good things are coming for TSLA. That way, he can revert to his "I told you so" stance if things remain rocky for Tesla but he can point out how he showed this rally was coming when it eventually happens. Interesting.
At the moment, I'm listening to Ashlee Vance's biography of Elon for the 2nd time. It's worthwhile to listen to it again because you gain perspective with time. My biggest feeling this time around? Tesla, SpaceX, and SolarCity encountered problems that would have sunk the companies if anyone else had been at the helm. For all his imperfections, Musk knows how to right the ship when the storm gets intense. I better understand why Tesla's foes wish for him to go. The persona he creates on Twitter also becomes Tesla's persona, and that's a good thing these days.
Best wishes all with the P&D report. I kept dreaming about P&D report results last night, and looks like I get a replay tonight.
Conditions:
* Dow down 79 (0.30%)
* NASDAQ up 20 (0.25%)
* TSLA 285.88, down 3.30 (1.14%)
* TSLA volume 5.5M shares
* Oil 62.80
* FINRA Percent of TSLA trading by shorts: 35%
N5329K
Active Member
Similar threads
- Locked
