So, the question is: was Tesla's stock priced too high? Remember, Elon himself said that the market was given Tesla credit for future performance they hadn't yet earned. We here mostly agree that Tesla will continue to dominate the EV world, and disrupt the ICE automotive world.
Clearly the stock had moved far ahead of itself in time. Nobody in the company, outside the company or on this board ever came close to predicting a $190 share price by Sept, 2013. And yet Tesla has performed about on schedule of guidance in terms of cars produced, profitability, etc.
So it really isn't credible to take the position the stock isn't over priced at those levels. No given the accomplishments and forward movement from here, coupled with the now $135 price, that's a different story in my mind. And the fact that JP is now back on the 'Valley of Death' board of appeals (he was recently actually bullish on the stock a short time ago) is the biggest sign we may be entering a new support level that now casts some realities into the mix. I'm in the camp suggested by smog's post here - the fires will be addressed (long term they are a just a marketing issue - for heaven sake the nearest competitors use gasoline and hydrogen!); and we have a CEO who is taking on the battery issue head-on and full tilt.
It's interesting that the battery issue narrative finally fits with the basic claim JP has made from the beginning (albeit from multiple poorly thought angles - he made an early claim Li supplies would not hold up- then retracted that along the way for example)- namely battery technology/production can't meet a demand curve sufficient to convert the market from ICE to EV (or even enough of it for a startup to survive, much less flourish). We're about to enter the final phase of that argument over the next 2 years or so as Elon tackles the last remaining mega-hurdle with the mega-factory.
My research indicates the pending convergence of technology, mineral production (yes including Cobalt), manufacturing efficiency, design, finance and meta drivers (like people dying from pollution and global warming) -
mixing a historicaly-transformational stew-pot that only lacks one eye-of-newt catalyst ingredient -
the relentless skills of a determined visionary, who doesn't know how to think small.
By all means, double the current world production of Li-Ion batteries- we've doubled it several times for Apple Laptops-iPods-iPhones-iPads, is it not time to do it again for the humanity's current biggest problem?
My guess is Elon is probably thinking something like, 'what is it you people are afraid of?' (given SpaceX and Mars; is a mega-factory really something more than a requirement on a check-list?)
No, From my seat of facts here, I'll be long TSLA vision and Elon's ability to achieve it, if for nothing more than to include it in my ride through Life
Not an uncommon error.
