jhm
Well-Known Member
Just wait until Musk says something that pokes a hole in Adam Jonas' phantasy Tesla bubble. He'll dash the stock PT down in spite.
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Just wait until Musk says something that pokes a hole in Adam Jonas' phantasy Tesla bubble. He'll dash the stock PT down in spite.
Well said...I think most people don't yet get that...because Uber is not yet public and its valuation is gonna be huge. However, let's also recognize that currently Uber is an asset light business model ...and its a recurring service business model. These tend to have higher PE or sales multiples.
I do believe that Elon is working on such a business because as a founder of Pay Pal it must really gnaw at him that Uber, pre- po is worth 50-75 PC more, in value or market cap currently, than Tesla Auto and Tesla Energy combined.
i expect Elon will come out with something that is differentiated and compelling to give him and Tesla a long term competitive advantage that will sustain for several years....hence the need to continue work in quiet mode! He can't and will not, I believe, come out and say much until end of 2016 because it would depend on ramping production volumes beyond $150 k annual cars, for starters.
The crux of this is why one owns TSLA and TSLA LEAPS (and maybe intermediate term options - short term? Godspeed.) We are buying their ability to see the future. Repeat. We are buying their ability to see the future. If you are a TSLA owner for car sales, energy storage, or autonomous driving services, awesome. I am an owner for that too. But I am a stock holder, LEAP holder and intermediate term option holder for all the things I don't know yet. What's next? I hope a lot.
A big question is how deep does this vision of the future run? Does it stop at Elon? Does JB have a sense too? Franz? Another half dozen executives and engineers and designers? The top 100? I really don't know. Happy for discussion on what people see. I am willing to wager a fairly high percentage of what we control on the singular, or shared, viewpoint TSLA has of the next 20 years, some of which they don't even know yet, but I have confidence they will figure out in the intervening period. Having this viewpoint is not a conservative approach to investing. YMMV.
Just to add to your thoughts, Musk is not a conventional CEO. This is how he summarized his views on running Tesla and Space X in the 2011 Bloomberg interview:
voyager
Active Member
Goldman Sachs IMO. There is this quintessential thing about Tesla cars. They are expensive luxury wannahaves that are cherished by their owners for what they represent in a number of ways. Shared mobility is like public transport, only meant to cater to mobility needs on a more individual basis. There is a reason why Google wants its robo-driven, ride-shared 'transportation devices' to look as anonymous and bland as possible. So, if Tesla serious about rolling out shared mobility, it has to come up with new types of cars people don't care about personally. Forget design, customizing, etc. And THAT may actually contradict Tesla's business model.
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I honestly don't understand why people value Uber so high. The only thing they got going for them right now is that they have a lot of drivers.
But if we get self driving cars, what stops any manufacturer from placing a few hundred cars into a city and giving people a $20 signup bonus on the app?
Which brings me back to Tesla. As pointed out on the #3 commet where is Tesla actually leading? Mercedes S-Class is already on the street with active steering assist and BMW DriveNow already goes into this sharing direction.
In addition even if it happens I don't think the timeline is realistic at all. If Tesla actually delivers the Model 3 in the end for 2017 then they want to sell cars and make money, not keep the cars and then slowly make a few hundred dollars every day when they could have tens of thousands right there.
But if we get self driving cars, what stops any manufacturer from placing a few hundred cars into a city and giving people a $20 signup bonus on the app?
Which brings me back to Tesla. As pointed out on the #3 commet where is Tesla actually leading? Mercedes S-Class is already on the street with active steering assist and BMW DriveNow already goes into this sharing direction.
In addition even if it happens I don't think the timeline is realistic at all. If Tesla actually delivers the Model 3 in the end for 2017 then they want to sell cars and make money, not keep the cars and then slowly make a few hundred dollars every day when they could have tens of thousands right there.
Can't say I'm all in with you here. I don't know yet if Tesla will even be doing this or not, and if they do will they be a mass market 'auto-mobile' provider or high end? Dunno. But I do expect they will offer a better service and product than others. For some, it will just be about price - they may win there. For others it will be about value - I expect them to win there. Design matters, service matters, integrated lifestyle matters, etc. Tesla will excel in these. People take the ugly bus or crowded train because they have no choice. I think I'd rather hop into a Model X than Google's car. Maybe I'm a wannabe and wannahave a better experience. I'll jump into the Google car when I want to feel like I'm in a Pixar movie.
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voyager
Active Member
Well, would you let someone else, outside your circle of friends and relatives, use your Model S?
According to Adam Jonas note Tesla could provide on demand shared mobility using Tesla owned fleet of cars. It has nothing to do with sharing individually owned cars.
This is *not* a carbon copy of business model used by Uber. You seem to be confusing the two.
The business model of Hertz then? That's even less exciting. Unfortunately I don't have access to the note but everyone online must be failing to explain it adequately because I remain firmly unconvinced.
(Roll eyes). Nothing to do with Hertz either.
Your opinions sometimes seem to be formed *before* you have a chance to examine whatever you are opining on. At this point I do not believe that reading the actual note will change your mind either way - you already made it up!
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voyager
Active Member
Okay, makes sense. Still, would the Model S qualify as a car to be used in a shared mobility program, set up by some Hertz-type organization?... Perhaps. And isn't this then some sort of enriched rental or lease program?
Most people want to own a nice car, but most people just want to go from A to B quickly and at little cost. For a long time, the only way to move was by purchasing a (nice and expensive) car, but once one can move quickly and economically without owning a car, the beauty / luxury of the transport doesn't matter much. It's not your car anymore, it's just a way to move from A to B. Now, if you want a high-end car for going out, you'll still be able to rent a luxury sedan. I'm not sure many people will pay this much for their daily commute though.
What people do like is options. Summon a Model S when you want luxury when you want that. Model X when you need room or just want to show your friends the falcon wing doors. Model 3 when looking for a nice ride. Model PT (pick up truck) when you gotta get mulch from Home Depot. Model 4 (coming in the early 2020s) when you want to save $. The new Roadster when you want to go 0-60 in 2.2 seconds. All different prices, all filling different needs - sort of like the whole universe of cars available today. Tesla doesn't have all these models yet, but they will. Other manufacturers have a bunch of models but will be less bold in a new business model because they've become satisfied with the way things work. Tesla's always trying to rethink the way things work. That's what I'm investing in.
Adm
Active Member
Just a thought: Could it be MS and GS are just exaggerating the chances and risks of TSLA to increase the volatility and volume of TSLA so they can make more money? Let's face it, it's all a game to these guys and all they do is influence the market so they get the most out of it. There are more forces on both sides of the court pulling and pushing the stock and I am willing to wager the majority cannot be considered objective sources.
Krugerrand
Meow
This might happen, but it would make no sense for Adam Jonas to make up a new Tesla business venture and then do a thorough analysis on it, etc.... He has to have acquired some information from Tesla. He may have interpreted the information wrong, he may have jumped to some conclusions, but he got something from Tesla that led him down this path. I am reminded of that very odd exchange on the ER concerning this topic.
I find your speculation offensive because you couldn't be further from the truth. I readily admit my analysis is based on articles over the report instead of the report itself because that is all I have, but when I am wrong, I am willing to accept that too. I gave my detailed position in post #3 of this thread and not a single person who has access to the note tried to correct my misconceptions. But somehow it is me who is not willing to discuss the implications of what this market could mean for Tesla.
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
I think the idea in this speculation is that Tesla has the opportunity to come up with a new business model, which would be different from what both Uber and Hertz are doing:
Uber: Uber does not own the cars, customers do not drive them, the cars' owners drive them. Customers go from A to B on demand. Very low transaction costs. Uber doesn't maintain the cars. Uber pays drivers and keeps a cut.
Hertz: Hertz owns the cars, customers drive them. The cars are rented for more than one trip and transaction costs are higher. Hertz maintains the cars. Hertz keeps the money.
Tesla: Tesla owns the cars, the cars drive themselves. A to B on demand. Very low transaction costs. Tesla maintains the cars. Tesla keeps the money.
They're substantially different.
Tesla hasn't proven they will ever be able to produce a car that will drive itself. Other companies, including Google have.
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