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Google LIDAR based system costs *more* than Model S. Due to the cost it is next to useless for an application being discussed in this thread.
The hardware for Tesla autopilot is less than $1000. In fact, Tesla was able to secretly add it to all cars being produced, without increase in price, and no noticeable impact on margins
That's more proof that people are dreaming. It reminds me of Ronald Reagan scaring the Russians with imaginary star wars.
Everything, and I mean absolutely everything that companies run by Elon Musk had *done*, was (and in some corners is) being called a pipe dream, all the way. This line of argument has zero credibility at this point.
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
These robots is certainty a good, but rather exotic example of how ridiculous "dream" assertions are. Going a little more main stream, 10 years ago very few people imagined that 75% of US mobile subscribers will carry a little device costing hundreds of $ and affording them instant access to world wide information, commerce and communications...
The mobility business really seems to be a good fit for Tesla's strategy. It is the norm for Tesla to front the initial costs and lose money and burn cash in order to ensure a profitable future. Tesla could do the same in the mobility business by setting up stations with solar panels, PowerPacks, and superchargers and filling them with cars. All of these are big up front investments that will pay off as people use the service. The advantage to this model is that the upfront costs, when amortized over the useful lifetime of each component is significantly less than the potential revenue per mile driven. That said, it really is a much more long term project (think beyond 2020), and it would be ridiculous to value Tesla on such a long term item. It is certainly worth considering that Tesla still has plenty of new things they want to expand in to when purchasing Tesla's stock, but basing a whole investment thesis on something that hasn't even been announced yet is a stretch.
And to those who point to extremely innovative competitors in the field like Google, Apple, and Uber, I'd like to point out two things: Tesla is extremely well positioned because they have everything they need for the business already being worked on: autopilot, electric cars, solar panels (Solar City is pretty much a sister company) and batteries, as well as charging infrastructure. Even if competition is there, Tesla could easily undercut them as the synergy of all these things that they do in house will result in low cost per mile.
Second, Tesla is already an innovation company, just like Google, Apple, and others. When thinking about innovation, Tesla comes up subliminally. University of Pennyslvania is building an innovation center called Pennovation, and guess which car is in the bottom right corner of their rendering? Let me give you a hint, its not a Google car, or any other car from Tesla's competitors or potential competitors. What does this tell us? Tesla is synonymous with the future and innovation, so don't get ahead of yourselves when claiming Google and Apple are the most innovative companies who are better positioned for the business.
And to those who point to extremely innovative competitors in the field like Google, Apple, and Uber, I'd like to point out two things: Tesla is extremely well positioned because they have everything they need for the business already being worked on: autopilot, electric cars, solar panels (Solar City is pretty much a sister company) and batteries, as well as charging infrastructure. Even if competition is there, Tesla could easily undercut them as the synergy of all these things that they do in house will result in low cost per mile.
Second, Tesla is already an innovation company, just like Google, Apple, and others. When thinking about innovation, Tesla comes up subliminally. University of Pennyslvania is building an innovation center called Pennovation, and guess which car is in the bottom right corner of their rendering? Let me give you a hint, its not a Google car, or any other car from Tesla's competitors or potential competitors. What does this tell us? Tesla is synonymous with the future and innovation, so don't get ahead of yourselves when claiming Google and Apple are the most innovative companies who are better positioned for the business.
I don't doubt some company will have an affordable fully autonomous automobile sometime in the future but I doubt Tesla will be at the forefront as a Morgan Stanley analyst thinks.
My confidence waned considerably when I saw how the blind spot monitoring was useless, not only because of all the errors (false calls, missed calls and late calls) but also because of the idiotic location where they put the indicator.
My confidence waned considerably when I saw how the blind spot monitoring was useless, not only because of all the errors (false calls, missed calls and late calls) but also because of the idiotic location where they put the indicator.
Here is the comparison between Camera based systems and LIDAR based systems.
http://www.templetons.com/brad/robocars/cameras-lasers.html
It also talks about LIDAR systems from Velodyne (claims to reach at $300/unit soon) and Quanergy(already at $1000 for 8 unit system). If one thinks that prices of LIDARS are going to be standstill, then that's wrong. I agree with this researcher that future systems will be using both cameras and LIDARs.
Who's going to win is anyone's guess.
I don't see Tesla competitive advantage in using their own fleet. I see their advantage when Tesla relies on the cars it sold to be available and summon wherever required. With this system, Tesla users would opt out from listing when they need the car (eg vacation, home to-fro office). Since Tesla will use proprietary software to talk to the autonomous systems, the APIs won't be available for anyone else to use. This is Tesla's win.
However, other manufacturers are NOT behind. They will also have autonomous systems working and functioning around the same time as some are already ahead of Tesla in producing features in this direction. They all understand current Google model won't work and hence joining with MobileEye. What they will offer is may be an open API set that companies like Uber and Lyft will use to network and summon cars to specified location when needed.
I feel that MS note is going a bit far with victory being claimed too early. Time will tell the story.
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How about using cameras instead of side mirrors? I guess Tesla is already planning for that and hence the indicator is within the screen and not on side mirror?
http://www.templetons.com/brad/robocars/cameras-lasers.html
It also talks about LIDAR systems from Velodyne (claims to reach at $300/unit soon) and Quanergy(already at $1000 for 8 unit system). If one thinks that prices of LIDARS are going to be standstill, then that's wrong. I agree with this researcher that future systems will be using both cameras and LIDARs.
Who's going to win is anyone's guess.
I don't see Tesla competitive advantage in using their own fleet. I see their advantage when Tesla relies on the cars it sold to be available and summon wherever required. With this system, Tesla users would opt out from listing when they need the car (eg vacation, home to-fro office). Since Tesla will use proprietary software to talk to the autonomous systems, the APIs won't be available for anyone else to use. This is Tesla's win.
However, other manufacturers are NOT behind. They will also have autonomous systems working and functioning around the same time as some are already ahead of Tesla in producing features in this direction. They all understand current Google model won't work and hence joining with MobileEye. What they will offer is may be an open API set that companies like Uber and Lyft will use to network and summon cars to specified location when needed.
I feel that MS note is going a bit far with victory being claimed too early. Time will tell the story.
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How about using cameras instead of side mirrors? I guess Tesla is already planning for that and hence the indicator is within the screen and not on side mirror?
What victory are you referring to? Adam Jonas assuming Tesla capturing 1% of the on-demand shared mobility market for mid case (PT $465) and 2% for bull case (PT $611). Please stop dismissing his note based on your determination that Tesla will not dominate this market. His report and PTs are well researched and are based on very conservative assumptions, it does not rely on Tesla dominating this field.
Regarding the pricing of Lidar system dropping, I will believe when I see it. The problem with this logic is that in order for prices to drop they need mass production, which is pie in the sky at this point because, as you mentioned yourself, the auto manufacturers are choosing camera/radar based systems because they are much cheaper. So where is the volume required to drop the LIDAR pricing will come from if everybody choosing the cheaper camera/radar systems? This is classic Catch -22...
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Regarding LIDAR system prices drop, the Google reference you pointed out at $80K is now selling for $8K within a few years without mass production. The companies in this field are all claiming cheaper and sophisticated lasers are coming.. and coming soon.
http://www.wired.com/2015/04/cost-of-sensors-autonomous-cars/
New version of Google cars will incorporate this $8K LIDAR system.
Elon also has pointed out that right approach with autonomous driving is a combination of cameras, radars and more sensors. Brad Templeton is a famous researcher in this direction and if you read his blog carefully, he's claiming a merger of two techs is obvious to go forward for full autonomy.
Regarding MS note, valuing about $100 currently for full autonomous shared economy that is about 10+ years ahead is not worthwhile to me. If Jonas is right and Tesla reaches $465 within a year, I will sell my stock.
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Cars and robots are different, however, the ability to understand the objects around them are similar and to some extent more complicated if a robot is let go with full autonomy in a jungle. Google's Boston Dynamics group recently released this cool video showing their current capability.
Boston Dynamics Atlas Robot Tested Outside - YouTube
Boston Dynamics Atlas Robot Tested Outside - YouTube
The key is, as I mentioned before, that Google LIDAR system costs $80K *now*. According to the link you've posted, Tesla's system costs several hundred dollars. Even if the cost of LIDAR system can drop 10-fold to $8K as you suggest (no link provided), it *will, several years from now* still cost about 20 times more than the camera based system *currently* used by Tesla and all other auto manufacturers.
I am not sure what was your point here, but my point was to demonstrate how baseless claims of Google being ahead of Tesla in self driving are - Tesla is working on real life applications, while Google is having research project - huge difference here.
Regarding your seeming dismissal of the AJ note based on the notion that it is prematurely claiming Tesla's victory in the self-driving space, I am glad that you've dropped this line of reasoning - it is worth repeating that AJ assumptions are very conservative - his midpoint PT is based on just 1% penetration of this market by Tesla, and his PT does not rely on Tesla being the "winner" in this space.
Yes, I think that the only legitimate way to question the AJ note is based on how far ahead it looks in order to assess value of the Tesla Mobility. To my mind there is no right or wrong answer here, it could be looked at both ways.
Here is the problem with your approach, though. If you are not willing to assign any value to this future business, you should sell your position now, because in such case you should *not* be OK with Tesla spending *any* R&D money on this future business. The problem is that they clearly *are" spending R&D money for this - be it for a million miles drivetrain, or for a snakebot. Both of these projects (and others that we do not know about - yet) are wasteful excesses if there is no Tesla Mobility in the cards.
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Sus
Member
Morgan Stanley Massively Hikes Price Target on Tesla, Says Stock Could Almost...
What if Tesla Mobility didn't own their own fleet of cars? With autonomous driving, they could offer people who own a Tesla a way to make a little extra money on the side and Tesla can take a cut.
For example, if I am a Model 3 owner and I work from 9-5pm, I could make my car available during that time for Tesla Mobility to provide rides. It works out for me since I won't have to be the driver, I just let the car drive around while I'm at work and I get some extra cash. It works out for Tesla because they get profit from selling the actual car to me plus they profit from the rides my car gives while I'm at work.
This would give them a huge edge over Uber (who said they would want to purchase a fleet of self driving cars) since they won't need to eat the cost of owning their own cars. They just need people they sell a Tesla to to sign up their car for Tesla Mobility.
What if Tesla Mobility didn't own their own fleet of cars? With autonomous driving, they could offer people who own a Tesla a way to make a little extra money on the side and Tesla can take a cut.
For example, if I am a Model 3 owner and I work from 9-5pm, I could make my car available during that time for Tesla Mobility to provide rides. It works out for me since I won't have to be the driver, I just let the car drive around while I'm at work and I get some extra cash. It works out for Tesla because they get profit from selling the actual car to me plus they profit from the rides my car gives while I'm at work.
This would give them a huge edge over Uber (who said they would want to purchase a fleet of self driving cars) since they won't need to eat the cost of owning their own cars. They just need people they sell a Tesla to to sign up their car for Tesla Mobility.
The link was embedded for your reference: Here you go again: http://www.wired.com/2015/04/cost-of-sensors-autonomous-cars/
Precise quote: "The next-gen Google car will have an $8,000 version, Mosquet says, still way too expensive for consumer adoption. You can get a LIDaR for less than $100, but that’s a single-beam unit made for much simpler applications."
Velodyne released system 1 year back that is being incorporated into new Google cars.
Velodyne Breaks LiDAR Sensor Price Barrier with Sub $8k 3D Real-Time | Unmanned Systems Technology
My point wrt Google is that, others are not sitting idle. In fact, when it comes to fully autonomous vehicles, Google is a clear leader. They also know the limitations currently and are working to bring down the cost. If one looks at 10+ years horizon and gives credit to Tesla, one must give credit to current leader. The main technology Google uses has dropped prices and are at 1/10th the cost in a matter of years. Industry expects this trend to continue and there are many startups in this industry trying to lower cost.
Quanergy Says It Will Offer Low Cost Sensors for Autonomous Cars Next Year - Digits - WSJ
Ultimately, I expect current Tesla or Google approach won't be sufficient and will require a merger of both techs (cameras and LIDaR and radars) to bring full autonomy along with mapping the world differently. When it comes to mapping the world for autonomous cars, its a tedious job and Google is well ahead of the rest of the bunch. All in all, assigning Tesla $100+ now based on very little information is too much for me.
Regarding selling my shares, thanks for the offer however wrong your assumption is. Thankfully, I make my own decisions here. I come here to learn and not fight. Good luck with your decisions.
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In 10+ years, Tesla will have a few models around $35K price range (with savings, actually around $27-30K), and may be a Gen 4 with even a lower price. Those users may be more likely to join such programs when returns seen are high.
Whether you think it's Tesla or someone else, cameras or radar or sonar or lidar, autonomous or autopilot, isn't NVidia a strong play here with its technology?
I just gave a couple of examples. There are many more. I play tennis in 100 degree weather. I'd call your Tesla to take me home drenching in sweat rather than drip sweat in my Tesla. Change a dirty diaper on a squirming baby in a Uber Tesla, no problem.
The only way I'd join a program like this is as an investor using cars I don't use but it could become a nightmare.
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