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Model X Timeline - From Prototype to Production
- Thread starter bonnie
- Start date
The T-200 was the first hunter killer.... So does this mean Sep 22 is judgement day? :scared:
SSsshhhh... He keeps saying I'll be back. Before we know it we will be getting the MAX MY X button!!!
Throughout the SEC fillings Annual Report posted Feb 26, 2015, the third quarter of 2015 is stated as the goal for Model X production. However, in the risks section where they are obviously supposed to be cautious, here are some reasons they state the Model X could be further delayed:
The definition of overly cautious is the second half of the final sentence. The rest of the potential causes for delay are all legitimate and give people reason to remain skeptical that the Model X will stick to its current Q3 schedule. Whenever someone asks me when I expect my car my only response is "I have no idea".
Gerardf
Active Member
I have not read through all the posts in this X-thread, but has someone already noticed that the 100.000 production Tesla might very well be the first production Model-X.
looking at the number of Model-S produced, and the Q1 and Q2 forecast, early summer will be about the time for Model-S production number 97.600 (let's not forget the 2.400 Produced roadsters). Would make a pretty spectecular unveil !
(Note : I posted this earlier in the investor section, but since this thread seems to be where the Model-X timeline speculation is, this might be a more relevant place
)
looking at the number of Model-S produced, and the Q1 and Q2 forecast, early summer will be about the time for Model-S production number 97.600 (let's not forget the 2.400 Produced roadsters). Would make a pretty spectecular unveil !
(Note : I posted this earlier in the investor section, but since this thread seems to be where the Model-X timeline speculation is, this might be a more relevant place
)
Merrill
Merrill
Let's assume that in Tesla time Q3 means September, so you would need design studio and a Model X to look at and drive. I would think that needs to happen 2 months before so we are looking at July?
May 3rd still nothing more then some hard camouflaged Mules.
Can we expect Tesla to give the 25000 reservation holders a rough timetable on the Conference Call (May 6th) and grow some confidence, that this time the X will really come, and not be delayed again? Or is that unlikely?
Can we expect Tesla to give the 25000 reservation holders a rough timetable on the Conference Call (May 6th) and grow some confidence, that this time the X will really come, and not be delayed again? Or is that unlikely?
O-G
Member
I don't think it is possible to have this call without discussing the timetable for the MX. Now, how detailed that information is remains to be seen. It could be a simple, "We are on schedule for the Q3 production of the MX". (I'm being the stockholder optimist here. It could also be "MX production will begin early Q4", which would be a real bummer for a variety of reasons.)
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
I'm reading the shareholder letter now and it states that Tesla is "now building and testing release candidate Model X prototypes..." The finish line is in sight!!!
Last thing mentioned in the call was the Model X configurator should come online at the end of July.
It was also mentioned that Tesla intends to build "a couple hundred" release candidate cars to test thoroughly. These will not be customer cars like the Model S. Tesla expects the cars given to customers to be good enough to ramp up production immediately. It will not be a slow trickle of cars for a number of months like the Model S had.
It was also mentioned that Tesla intends to build "a couple hundred" release candidate cars to test thoroughly. These will not be customer cars like the Model S. Tesla expects the cars given to customers to be good enough to ramp up production immediately. It will not be a slow trickle of cars for a number of months like the Model S had.
Please lets not forget that Elon also mentioned this is highly tied on the supply chain being in line with Tesla production capability. 1 missing part and zero come off the line.
There are three main factors in which I think it's likely to take 4.5 to 6 months before full ramp:
- external supplier ramp promises might not hit production requirements based on unexpected customer demand mix (thus missing parts and nothing coming off the line)
- Tesla quality unknowns that come up after real production starts, may require some rework (Thinking the S and D ramps)
- Knowledge from S and D ramps might not be fully applicable and the X differences will introduce a new variable that Tesla doesn't have the experience yet. i.e. There will be unexpected manufacturing issues that'll slow them down as they try to ramp it.
I've set my expectations for at least one or more to occur, but there's still a chance that they can pull it off. Unfortunately, their history isn't on their side either. In any case, it's surely shaping up now and coming closer and closer! FINALLY!
A couple other items heard during the call...
1. At the beginning, Elon mentioned he just drove the latest prototype [RC] and was very pleased with it.
2. Expecting ramp up to 1,000 per week in 2-3 months, at least half the time frame of the comparable S ramp up commencing late Q3, September
3. It would be easy to hit substantial production in August, but they won't.
4. They intend to build aprrox 100 X's as a control fleet for final validation
5. Is was unclear, but Elon did mention 3 months or July for either seeing the first X's or the opening of the configurator. (Unclear response to a multi-prong question.)
6. At the end, Elon mentioned the sports car like handling of the X... low center of gravity, etc, and that it is based on the performance 85 D.... which might signal a much higher price level and still be "consistent with S variants" past quotes.
My only hope is that the 100 unit control fleet would be demo's to all the U.S. galleries/showrooms for widest level of control and feedback.
1. At the beginning, Elon mentioned he just drove the latest prototype [RC] and was very pleased with it.
2. Expecting ramp up to 1,000 per week in 2-3 months, at least half the time frame of the comparable S ramp up commencing late Q3, September
3. It would be easy to hit substantial production in August, but they won't.
4. They intend to build aprrox 100 X's as a control fleet for final validation
5. Is was unclear, but Elon did mention 3 months or July for either seeing the first X's or the opening of the configurator. (Unclear response to a multi-prong question.)
6. At the end, Elon mentioned the sports car like handling of the X... low center of gravity, etc, and that it is based on the performance 85 D.... which might signal a much higher price level and still be "consistent with S variants" past quotes.
My only hope is that the 100 unit control fleet would be demo's to all the U.S. galleries/showrooms for widest level of control and feedback.
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O-G
Member
I think I heard this a bit differently,
Elon stated that the production of the MX would double the production of the facitility. Earlier statement was that Q4 would be producing 14,000 MS. If fully ramped up with no problems, that would be 14,000 MX produced in Q4.
i didn't hear him say that they could have substantial production in August. He said that they could push to produce some in August but that didn't make sense.
He did say specifically that he expected the design configurator to be available in July.
He said that there would be a performance model available like with the MS. I'm not sure how that equates to a signal of a much higher price.
I listened to the whole call and read the letter with specific interest in the Model X. Beyond what's already been covered, this is my take.
The control fleet is several hundred, not only 100. These were described to serve the same purpose as the early Model S deliveries, only this time around they would be a captive fleet (i.e. not sold or delivered to people outside Tesla) in order to allow thorough testing prior to any customer orders being delivered. He made specific reference to driving the fleet millions of miles and doing cold and hot weather testing, although this may include previous prototypes since it's not exactly easy to find cold weather this time of year. It was also said even though everything is in place so that they could start customer deliveries (much different than be fully ramped) in August, they will not in order to give the validation period more time.
Once deliveries start in September, the ramp up is supposed to take about 2 months if everything goes correctly. However, all it takes is one supplier being late with deliveries or an unexpectedly high take rate of an option to delay the ramp up. I would not expect full rate production matching Model S until some point in November. This would then give them 6-8 weeks to build somewhere in the neighborhood of 8,000 Model X in addition to what might be a couple thousand during the ramp up period. I don't see 14,000 being possible without already being fully ramped at the start of Q4, which does not sound like the plan.
Of other interest was that Elon indicated there would be "no big surprises" in the design studio compared to what is already available for Model S. I'm not sure to take this to mean Model X will be optioned similarly to Model S, have similar specs to Model S, have an identical interior to Model S, or something else. For all the times he's called Model X "incredible", it certainly sounded like he was downplaying the importance of the design studio.
This call gives me increased confidence that I will see delivery by January at the latest, and it's good to see no new delays beyond what I already anticipated for final validation. Can't wait for July!
The control fleet is several hundred, not only 100. These were described to serve the same purpose as the early Model S deliveries, only this time around they would be a captive fleet (i.e. not sold or delivered to people outside Tesla) in order to allow thorough testing prior to any customer orders being delivered. He made specific reference to driving the fleet millions of miles and doing cold and hot weather testing, although this may include previous prototypes since it's not exactly easy to find cold weather this time of year. It was also said even though everything is in place so that they could start customer deliveries (much different than be fully ramped) in August, they will not in order to give the validation period more time.
Once deliveries start in September, the ramp up is supposed to take about 2 months if everything goes correctly. However, all it takes is one supplier being late with deliveries or an unexpectedly high take rate of an option to delay the ramp up. I would not expect full rate production matching Model S until some point in November. This would then give them 6-8 weeks to build somewhere in the neighborhood of 8,000 Model X in addition to what might be a couple thousand during the ramp up period. I don't see 14,000 being possible without already being fully ramped at the start of Q4, which does not sound like the plan.
Of other interest was that Elon indicated there would be "no big surprises" in the design studio compared to what is already available for Model S. I'm not sure to take this to mean Model X will be optioned similarly to Model S, have similar specs to Model S, have an identical interior to Model S, or something else. For all the times he's called Model X "incredible", it certainly sounded like he was downplaying the importance of the design studio.
This call gives me increased confidence that I will see delivery by January at the latest, and it's good to see no new delays beyond what I already anticipated for final validation. Can't wait for July!
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