-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
September 2014 - mid month stat update
Looks like its picking up pace again...
Stats by Region
Last Update: Sept 16, 2014
Looks like its picking up pace again...
Stats by Region
| Region | Tally on Sep 15 | Sept Per Day | Tally on Aug 31 | Tally on July 31 | August Per Day | July Per Day | Lifetime Average Per Day | Lifetime Average Per Month |
| Canada | 816 | 2.8 | 774 | 697 | 2.5 | 7.2 | 0.9 | 26.2 |
| US | 14,584 | 35.7 | 14,048 | 13,271 | 25.1 | 20.7 | 15.4 | 467.9 |
| European | 3,147 | 7.7 | 3,032 | 2,725 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 101.0 |
| Asia Pacific | 2,123 | 1.6 | 2,099 | 1,907 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 68.1 |
| Global | 20,670 | 47.8 | 19,953 | 18,600 | 43.6 | 39.1 | 21.8 | 663.2 |
Last edited:
I think after the initial spike following the reveal event (guessing >1,000 in the ensuing week), we'll see it settle back into the 70-100/day range until release, and then climb to over 100/day by this time next year. Just spitballing.
adiggs
Well-Known Member
Lots of speculation, guesses, and making (stuff) up. No actual knowledge on anybody's part.
Ain't it grand! My personal thinking - first deliveries will be happening in Q1, and though I don't think it'll happen, that might mean late Q1 for me. That rolls backwards to pricing, options, and that sort of detail in Q4 of this year. I figure that means we're going to see something close to eventual production in September or October.
But it could be November or December. And it might not even be options and pricing until Q1. And really, we don't know anything.
I will add that this thinking has switched me from being mentally "about a year away" (for the last 2 years), to now "about 6 months away". I won't be surprised if I'm still mentally "about 6 months away", 6 months from now.
Welcome to the boat
Here's the link: Elon Musk: Will be able to achieve half a million cars by 2020 | On Air Videos | Fox Business
Elon essentially stated the goal is to deliver "15K ish" in 2015 and 20K if they are aggressive. No matter how you slice it, Model X is sold out before it goes into production. This is unheard of in the automotive world.
chickensevil
Active Member
Year 2 is not likely to be any better... With a whole year of people seeing and driving and the reviews before those first 15k get off the line... Year two better be rocking 30k+ if they want to have a hope at all of playing catch up. Wait times for the X are bound to be around 1 year for a very long time...
That could be the case. I'm interested what the 2015 guidance will be now that we know 15K to 20K is the an estimate for X. If Tesla plans on 15K to 20K "ish" Model X and the production capability exiting 2014 is 1,000+ cars a week, is 60K to 70K the 2015 sales forecast?
If so, I agree with you Chicken, 2016 could have long waits for S and X.
chickensevil
Active Member
Yeah, Elon said in Q2 ER that they would hit at least 60k in 2015. They would be exiting the 2015 year with at least a 2000 a week run rate, so the 60k is a low estimate since they will be starting the year off at 1000 a week (50k a year)
My current understanding is that the Main Body Assembly is currently where the new bottleneck is at in the factory, which will be upgraded in Q1, Next will be the Paint Shop (but I don't know what their current run rate cap through there is...) both of these seemed to be critical to getting them up to 2000 a week by the end of the year (based on Elon's comments) which is why he wouldn't give a higher number than 60k, since they still had around 5 months before we started 2015. It is very likely that number will change for the positive. I am personally just hoping for 70k because that will be a simple doubling of the production over this year.
So my initial feeling is that MS won't be AS affected by this, since I feel like they will be giving around 50k production to the MS. That should be a nice steady ramp up, and should pull the wait times down (for now), the MX on the other hand, it is going to be a long wait... at some point they might shift the MS wait times just a bit to allow them to squeeze out the MX a bit faster and pull the backlog down. Once they meet a parity on wait times, they will likely do whatever they can to make the wait the same across the two models. But I don't see that happening until maybe 2016...
gjunky
Trifecta: Solar and both cars are EVs
If they scale in a linear fashion from 1000 per week to a "100,000 yearly run rate" by the end of 2015, they would produce 76k cars in 2015 for a 52 week run or roughly 72k for a 50 week run.
(the production would increase by 18 cars week over week)
As mentioned above, this of course would all depend if there is some other bottleneck in the factory which might affect the ramp up.
(the production would increase by 18 cars week over week)
As mentioned above, this of course would all depend if there is some other bottleneck in the factory which might affect the ramp up.
Tim Alguire
Member
Vger
Active Member
Yes, congrats Tim. We are #737 only September 4, so about 50 Model X's in Canada in less than 3 weeks!
For comparison, there were less than 50 Roadsters EVER sold in Canada over three years!
Similar threads
