Model X Production ramp up discussion

[Lyon]

There has been clear communication to the Signatures on this fact. They've relayed it to the forums which is one reason we're discussing it. AlMc among others have confirmed this multiple times.

I'm looking forward to a slower ramp more than I thought I would. It'll be nice to take my time and digest all the (hopefully wonderful) things that owners are saying.

I think the point he's making is that Tesla hasn't reached out to Signature res holders on their own. All the confirmations we have come from folks asking Tesla. There will be a group of Signature reservation holders who don't hang out here and won't ask Tesla about the seats; they'll just assume the seats fold and won't know that there's been a change from the initial prototype design specs until their car shows up.

But, yes, there's no question the seats don't fold.

 

[dirkhh]

I think the point he's making is that Tesla hasn't reached out to Signature res holders on their own.

*Mind*boggles* - you mean there are people who have, like, a life and don't obsessively check the forum 17 times a day?

 

[doggusfluffy]

There has been clear communication to the Signatures on this fact. They've relayed it to the forums which is one reason we're discussing it. AlMc among others have confirmed this multiple times.

I'm looking forward to a slower ramp more than I thought I would. It'll be nice to take my time and digest all the (hopefully wonderful) things that owners are saying.

I don't know why you would look forward to a slower ramp. That is less revenue coming in and I thought I read they had already fully staffed and trained Line 2. Rushing or sacrificing quality wouldn't be smart...but faster is better for the bottom line of Tesla. Also, I thought we were in a race to get EV's on the roads...

 

[Lyon]

*Mind*boggles* - you mean there are people who have, like, a life and don't obsessively check the forum 17 times a day?

As impossible it is to comprehend such a thing, yes, there are be such people.... maybe.

 

[dirkhh]

As impossible it is to comprehend such a thing, yes, there are be such people.... maybe.

We should have a poll.
1) I read TMC
2) I don't read TMC
3) undecided
That will give us the answer.
*snicker*

 

[FredTMC]

I don't know why you would look forward to a slower ramp. That is less revenue coming in and I thought I read they had already fully staffed and trained Line 2. Rushing or sacrificing quality wouldn't be smart...but faster is better for the bottom line of Tesla. Also, I thought we were in a race to get EV's on the roads...

I fully expect Tesla to run their production line at full speed (less MX than guidance but more MS).

 

[doggusfluffy]

I fully expect Tesla to run their production line at full speed (less MX than guidance but more MS).

I hope so as well. I'm trying to remember if the Factory tour video had notes whether the 2nd line was running and producing MS currently. I think he said they planned to be able to run both in the future. Would absolutely love to see another Megafactories 2.0!

 

[gjunky]

*Mind*boggles* - you mean there are people who have, like, a life and don't obsessively check the forum 17 times a day?

17? Slacker

 

[Signaturex]

We should have a poll.
1) I read TMC
2) I don't read TMC
3) undecided
That will give us the answer.
*snicker*

What is TMC?

 

[doggusfluffy]

What is TMC?

Madge, you're soaking in it. :biggrin:
Tesla Motors Club.

 

[Jeva]

Madge, you're soaking in it. :biggrin:
Tesla Motors Club.

You have to be of a certain age to appreciate that comment

 

[ohmman]

I don't know why you would look forward to a slower ramp. That is less revenue coming in and I thought I read they had already fully staffed and trained Line 2. Rushing or sacrificing quality wouldn't be smart...but faster is better for the bottom line of Tesla. Also, I thought we were in a race to get EV's on the roads...

Let me make a distinction between preference and anticipation (looking forward). I'm not suggesting that my preference is for a slower ramp, that makes little sense. What I'm saying is that I'm looking forward to the time I'll have during their calculated, safe, and successful ramp up. This is another way of saying that I have no control over the situation and I'm looking on the bright side.

You sound more concerned as a shareholder; this I am not except incidentally, so I have little focus on the share price of Tesla. I do care about their success and am vested in that I own an MS, plan (hope) to have an MX, and the real prize would be the purported new generation of Roadster, hence my "Member" status to the left <----.

Hope that helps.

 

[doggusfluffy]

Let me make a distinction between preference and anticipation (looking forward). I'm not suggesting that my preference is for a slower ramp, that makes little sense. What I'm saying is that I'm looking forward to the time I'll have during their calculated, safe, and successful ramp up. This is another way of saying that I have no control over the situation and I'm looking on the bright side.

That makes sense. Even people who are purely fans of the MX or even potential buyers...most seem excited to the point they can't see it fast enough so I was curious.

 

[Hugh Mannity]

*Mind*boggles* - you mean there are people who have, like, a life and don't obsessively check the forum 17 times a day?

it's possible to check the site that little ? wow you must have good self restraint :biggrin:

 

[mzpolo]

you asked for it.... This is a total WAG What is the WAG on reservation drop outs so we can guess when I will see our X?

Week ending	# produced	Cumulative total
10/2/2015	25	25
10/9/2015	25	50
10/16/2015	50	100
10/23/2015	50	150
10/30/2015	100	250
11/6/2015	100	350
11/13/2015	250	600
11/20/2015	250	850
11/27/2015	100	950
12/4/2015	250	1200
12/11/2015	500	1700
12/18/2015	750	2450
12/25/2015	500	2950
1/1/2016	500	3450
1/8/2016	750	4200
1/15/2016	1000	5200
1/22/2016	1000	6200
1/29/2016	1000	7200

Any thoughts from the crowd on this now that we have 448 or more folks invited to configure? Is my original WAG gonna hold?

 

[dirkhh]

Any thoughts from the crowd on this now that we have 448 or more folks invited to configure? Is my original WAG gonna hold?

It seems that the continued addition of more and more invites was to get to about 200-250 configured cars. Invites appear to have stopped since. And no one, not even #1/#2 have heard about a delivery date.
While communication from DES is notoriously unreliable, word on the street (so to say) appears to be that they will try hard to deliver all the US Sigs (~1200 minus cancellations + waitlist, so let's call it around a thousand) in 2015.
Several people with very low production reservation numbers have been told not to expect their cars this year (whereas one person with a low three digit P# was told to expect to get the invite in the next couple of weeks - I'd file this under confused DES... my bet is he thought that customer instead had a three digit Sig reservation).
So long story short, no, I don't think we'll get anywhere near 3000 Model X this year.

 

[schonelucht]

Any thoughts from the crowd on this now that we have 448 or more folks invited to configure? Is my original WAG gonna hold?

My personal take is that they have not started to build any of the signature cars. Otherwise they would not be able to offer confirmed orders the option to switch to 6 seats without delay. They won't start building them right in the middle of their end-of-quarter push. Therefore, earliest likely start-of-build date is October 1st. If everything goes well (a big if), that means the first cars roll from the factory floor one week later. It's also reasonable to expect an extended quality control for the first cars. Even when no issues are found we are still looking at the earliest possible delivery date somewhere around Oct 15. Now the nature of exponential growth means that a 2 week delay in the beginning translates in a big difference by Jan 1st. Going off your schedule : 2450 instead of 3450 cars by year-end. In reality, I would not be surprised at all if the very first signature cars are only delivered near the end of October. Based on your schedule, such a push back would mean around 1000 cars delivered by the end of the year which happens to be exactly what Tesla has informally communicated to some reservation holders here.

 

[hobbes]

It seems that the continued addition of more and more invites was to get to about 200-250 configured cars. Invites appear to have stopped since.

Looks like there was another batch yesterday:

Got mine today S700

- - - Updated - - -

Seems like they added a 6 seat option...I guess without the center middle row seat, the X could accommodate much longer, albeit narrow, piece of equipment like a surfboard or something...seems like adding this option is another indication that the center row seats will not be able to fold flat...

Information is spread across too many threads here IMHO.

 

[Matias]

So Tesla has delivered 5 Model Xes. What's next?

 

[Newb]

I noticed that more than 1,000 sig reservation holders seem to have been invited to configure. But I'm not sure what to make out of it. Will Tesla deliver these ~1,000 cars in the next two months or so? Or by the end of the year, just for Xmas maybe? More information needed.