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Model X Production ramp up discussion
- Thread starter dsm363
- Start date
Alright folks, as suggested earlier in this thread, we'd have some new meat to process once updates are getting posted in the "highest reservation number" thread
Now it looks like the next 300 sig reservation holders got invited to configure their cars. That's really good news. Together with the Founders cars, that should sum up to about 350 configurations Tesla will have by the end of this week or so. Question: What does that mean for the production schedule?
I hope Tesla won't let people who already configured their cars wait for too long after completed configuration. Given the average Model S wait times for the U.S., I think NigelM (#313) should get his X by mid November. We'd be at 350 Model X produced by end of October then. Sounds realistic to me and slightly above the conservative estimate by mzpolo.
Now it looks like the next 300 sig reservation holders got invited to configure their cars. That's really good news. Together with the Founders cars, that should sum up to about 350 configurations Tesla will have by the end of this week or so. Question: What does that mean for the production schedule?
I hope Tesla won't let people who already configured their cars wait for too long after completed configuration. Given the average Model S wait times for the U.S., I think NigelM (#313) should get his X by mid November. We'd be at 350 Model X produced by end of October then. Sounds realistic to me and slightly above the conservative estimate by mzpolo.
Depends on the drop out rate, though. 1000 sigs became 1400 sigs, which suggests a drop out rate of 40% in the lower 1000.
Pure speculation (because it is fun) :
First wave : 30 founders, no drop outs, 30 configurations
Second wave : sig #1-#30, 5 drop outs, 25 configurations
Third wave : sig #31-#175, 60 drop outs, 90 configurations
Last wave : sig #176-#325, 60 drop outs, 90 configurations
I think -minus the drop out- the invitations to configure likely closely track their internal estimate of how they want to ramp up. If so, then the only thing we need to know next is when will they actually start the production ramp up for sigs. Any of them already got a status update on factory building their car?
dirkhh
Middle-aged Member
I believe founders were only about a dozen cars.
The drop out ration in the the third and forth wave may be a bit high - unless of course you include the people who won't press "order" until some questions are answered... then I think you may actually be low... it seems that a lot of the people with invites to configure are saying that they'll wait at least until the founder cars are delivered...
But overall I agree with you. Looks like
12-25-90-90 (or something like that) for the first four weeks.
The interesting question will be how long it takes them to deliver these cars... Because just because they get to order week by week doesn't mean that they get delivered week by week.
NigelM
Recovering Member
That's exactly where I am at right now. Waiting on answers to some questions which may or may not get clarified before Sept 29th.
Exactly. Deliveries also have a geographic component.
dirkhh
Middle-aged Member
I'd be curious how many people have actually pressed "order". Even Bonnie seems to be waiting for the answer to some question (she's remarkably quiet on this).
The tracker has 18 "orders" in it - but now I'm actually tempted to go back and ask these people if that is "ordered / confirmed / locked in" or "configured but not yet confirmed as I still have questions..."
Paul, any chance you and your minions^H^H^H^H^H^Hcoadmins could check?
[/QUOTE]
We have an ordered field that's used in combination of the confirmed, but really I guess we need 'Invited to Configure' date instead to drive 'Orders'. Looks like most people put their invited to configure data as ordered date and prefilled confirmed with the 1 week later. I'll see what I can do so we can track this scenario too.
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Note: Almost done! Easily added, now in beta testing. Will go live with Design Studio (Invited to Configure) once a few tests are completed.
dirkhh
Middle-aged Member
You're the best. Would give you more reputation but I can't... need to spread it around some more, first
You could test and make it happen sooner if you're not busy, the super duper tester amazing Saxena hasn't passed it yet!You're the best. Would give you more reputation but I can't... need to spread it around some more, first
agreed. I hope that the 2nd-row-seats-gate doesn't contribute to more drop outs. In this moment I'm thinking perhaps TM is just testing responses to this cargo space issue on those ~250-300 reservation holders? And then they might literally deliver just the dozen Model X's on 29th and then just wait with production ramp up for a couple of weeks until they get that 2nd row design issue solved? Maybe the suppliers of the foldable 2nd row seats are just late? Thus, the couple of Founders might get their cars with non-foldable seats first to be on schedule officially?
No need to refer to someone called "Eds", of course, thx. :biggrin:
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You're the best. Would give you more reputation but I can't... need to spread it around some more, first
;-) I just helped you with that.
WentOffGrid
Member
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Just no. If they need to redesign seats at this point, that would be a major fail. Also, Bonnie got express confirmation that the car she will get is exactly the car with the same components as the rest of the sigs will get. No 'hand build with components that aren't the final production components' crap will happen with the X.
dirkhh
Middle-aged Member
Here's a fun datapoint (NOT).
According to this post New renderings of storage space and 2nd row seats! (9/15) - Page 53 no production cars will ship this year...
So the ramp predictions may have been a bit too aggressive. Fewer than 1200 cars in 2015
According to this post New renderings of storage space and 2nd row seats! (9/15) - Page 53 no production cars will ship this year...
So the ramp predictions may have been a bit too aggressive. Fewer than 1200 cars in 2015
I guess it could be a little lower number depending on how many signatures drop or defer. Doubtful they are planning to deliver foreign signatures.
dirkhh
Middle-aged Member
Well, some people mentioned that they were on the Signature wait list. So it's possible that they can "refill". All depends on how many Sig reservation holders decide to cancel or defer, as you said.
We have seen a few here on the forum who are either planning or considering to do so, but that's of course a very small sample and there is of course strong selection bias (just to make sure the statistics police doesn't go after me).
As far as I know, there has been no communication to signature buyers about the seats not folding. The only people who would know at this point are forum followers. The vast majority will apparently not know until their car is delivered.
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As far as I know, there has been no communication to signature buyers about the seats not folding. The only people who would know at this point are forum followers. The vast majority will apparently not know until their car is delivered.
There has been clear communication to the Signatures on this fact. They've relayed it to the forums which is one reason we're discussing it. AlMc among others have confirmed this multiple times.
I'm looking forward to a slower ramp more than I thought I would. It'll be nice to take my time and digest all the (hopefully wonderful) things that owners are saying.
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