Model S/X Owners Have Priority Model 3 Orders Over Non-Owners

[ohmman]

Tesla is currently in a deep hole in terms of debt, signifying that while model s and x are fantastic and super desirable, they're not making Tesla enough money to cover expenses, which makes them fail as a company. Yes, profit from sales of MS and MX went into M3 R&D, but Tesla's R&D will always be a huge money sink because innovation is their main selling point.

This is a bit of a roundabout argument. First, MX development costs are sunk, but profits haven't been realized yet. What we have right now is MS sales and profits which are funding R&D on MX, M3, Gigafactory, Supercharger network, and the revamped MS (!). I believe Tesla could remain a niche player - but that's not in keeping with their aspirations and mission statement.

MS and MX sales are enough to cover Tesla's overall expenses if they're not aiming to produce a lower margin vehicle. If anything, that is the bigger risk. A M3 failure or serious stumble is the thing that would sink Tesla.

 

[EinSV]

As I mentioned, I don't know unpublished specifics, but based on the wording of 30D, it appears on a scale of 1 to fraud, it would rank right around 1. There's nothing specifically fraudulent about doing this. It could be called manipulative, certainly. Fraudulent? Only if they lied about it, and I don't see a reason they'd need to do so.

I agree -- except I don't even think it would qualify as "manipulative". Tesla prioritizes shipments to different countries and regions for all sorts of reasons. It is highly likely that if Tesla is getting close to the 200,000 mark and has the ability to do it without wreaking havoc on its delivery schedule it will shift deliveries to Europe, Canada, Asia, etc. to delay triggering the beginning of the phase-out in U.S. tax credits by a quarter. Tesla has already shown that it is willing to do the smart and right thing by its customers by managing deliveries to maximize tax breaks -- with the most obvious recent example being the sales of as many Model S's as humanly possible in Denmark late in 2015 to avoid significant tax increases for customers buying in 2016: Denmark’s best-selling car in December was for the first time an electric car: the Tesla Model S.

Given the benefits to customers in the U.S. from delaying the tax phase-out, if Congress hasn't fixed the system by then I fully expect Tesla will do what it can to give its U.S. customers a little help with the tax man. I see absolutely nothing wrong with this and no reason why they wouldn't do it.

 

[ggnykk]

OK, I am going to have to call you on this, because it isn't true and it drives me nuts when people spread FUD about the Volt - the Volt is available nationwide. There are several 2017 Volts for sale at David Maus Chevrolet which is way closer than 1000 miles to you. There is always at least 1 Chevy dealer in every metro area who ends up specializing in Volts.


Back to the topic at hand - how do we know the Model 3 will be a luxury vehicle? People buying the $35,000 model may very well cross-shop it with a Bolt, and I will bet the Bolt will probably come equipped with more features for the same amount of money (and there is the fact that no one pays MSRP for a GM car, so it will probably be priced exactly the same as the Tesla in the real world).

So if someone is looking at the base model and needs the tax credit, there is a Bolt that will be available earlier than the 3 and they might decide to jump on that and guarantee themselves the tax credit vs waiting for the base model 3, which will most likely not come with the credit. So I would say the Bolt IS a comparable vehicle when we are talking about the base models.

My bet is that not many people will buy the new GM's Bolt when Model 3 is in the market. I think most people haven't realized this (even car manufacturer), almost all the non-Tesla EV offering out there has very radical, hate it or love it design (Nissan Leaf, GM Bolt, BMW i3). I can never understand why the design have to go to such extreme that will turn off a lot of potential customers. Tesla Model 3, the new VW Golf EV, Mercedes B class EV are like the only EV out there that looks "normal", in which only Model 3 (maybe Mercedes B as well) looks kind of luxury, at least from the outside. Anyway, Model 3 will definitely be a LOT more appealing to customer than GM Bolt from an aesthetic and perception standing point. People won't be looking at you and wondering why u are driving a weird looking bug.

 

[brianman]

... almost all the non-Tesla EV offering out there has very radical, hate it or love it design (Nissan Leaf, GM Bolt, BMW i3). I can never understand why the design have to go to such extreme that will turn off a lot of potential customers....

It's intentional. They don't want them to sell.

It was true in 2011 when I reserved my Model S. It remains true today.

 

[smartypnz]

All the reasons I am reading here to consider the the Bolt instead of the Model 3 sound reasonable.......

Except, you wind up with a Bolt

 

[physicsfita]

Those numbers are, as I'm sure you know, quite extreme. That'd obviously be crossing the line. Where I think you might see Tesla fudge the numbers a bit is to aim to deliver their 200,000th car at the beginning of a quarter. That way, Tesla customers get the full tax incentive for basically another 6 months. That way, everybody wins. I understand that Tesla has a history of caring about things like this. Hopefully they do their customers a solid, and hopefully it benefits everyone on this forum.

To give some more context, IIRC, there was an very unfavorable change in the taxation of EV's in Denmark recently. Tesla shifted a lot of production to Denmark to beat the date the law went into effect. It filed so many vehicle registrations that the Danish government briefly investigated Tesla before saying it was all according to Hoyle.

Edit: I see the EinSV could type faster than me.

 

[Mark Z]

One coast to coast race between Bolt and Model 3 should put to rest what car is best.

 

[FlatSix911]

All the reasons I am reading here to consider the the Bolt instead of the Model 3 sound reasonable.......

Except, you wind up with a Bolt

The Chevy Bolt EV enters pre-production at the Orion factory [Video]

Watch The Chevrolet Bolt EV Enter Pre-Production In Michigan - Video

 

[smartypnz]

One coast to coast race between Bolt and Model 3 should put to rest what car is best.

Nahhhh..... just SF to LA - why waste the electrons - the Bolt may someday need them.

 

[tga]

One coast to coast race between Bolt and Model 3 should put to rest what car is best.

This same argument is used by the ICE crowd to denigrate EV's and their slow refueling (compared to ICE).

Now it's being co-opted by Tesla owners/fans to denigrate other EV's without access to the Supercharging network.

Further examination of the irony is left as an exercise to the reader...

 

[Mark Z]

This same argument is used by the ICE crowd to denigrate EV's and their slow refueling (compared to ICE)...

That is why it is more important than ever for Tesla Motors to develop a battery swap highway to compete with fast fuel fills. Model 3 would be a perfect candidate for swaps to avoid Supercharging crowding.

 

[AnOutsider]

That is why it is more important than ever for Tesla Motors to develop a battery swap highway to compete with fast fuel fills. Model 3 would be a perfect candidate for swaps to avoid Supercharging crowding.

I may be wrong, but I think @tga's point was more about EV folks fighting against other EVs with the same tactics the ICE crowd uses to fight against all EVs

 

[ggnykk]

That is why it is more important than ever for Tesla Motors to develop a battery swap highway to compete with fast fuel fills. Model 3 would be a perfect candidate for swaps to avoid Supercharging crowding.

Tesla pretty much decided to give up on any expansion of the battery swap program. The battery swap facility that is between LA and SF is rarely used by any customers. Elon pointed out before in TSLA conference calls.

 

[tga]

I may be wrong, but I think @tga's point was more about EV folks fighting against other EVs with the same tactics the ICE crowd uses to fight against all EVs

Yep. That's it.

 

[SlyWombat]

Rumor from a Tesla person is that the first year production will be sold out at the stores on the 31st. Those that order online on the first will be waiting almost a year for their car.

 

[vinnie97]

2019 looking increasingly likely for most of us plebes.

 

[MassModel3]

Rumor from a Tesla person is that the first year production will be sold out at the stores on the 31st. Those that order online on the first will be waiting almost a year for their car.

There's no way such a rumor can have any foundation in truth at this point. Come April first, perhaps. But not yet.

 

[S'toon]

Rumor from a Tesla person is that the first year production will be sold out at the stores on the 31st. Those that order online on the first will be waiting almost a year for their car.

Emphasis on the word rumour. I don't think there's any way to reliably predict how many reservations will be made and where. When I was in the army we had a saying "If you don't hear a rumour by 10:00 make up one."

 

[shrspeedblade]

Rumor from a Tesla person is that the first year production will be sold out at the stores on the 31st. Those that order online on the first will be waiting almost a year for their car.

Those are some pretty darn good tea leaves!
I guess we'll all get to find out in a week.

 

[AlanSqB]

Morning of 31st reservation. One time zone east of CA. I think I will be ok. Prob early to mid '18, but ok.