unlikely, especially if $7500 credit is gone by end of the year.
Completely impossible. The $7500 lasts for 1 quarter after the quarter they hit 200,000. The $7500 also lasts through the quarter when the level is hit. If they hit it tomorrow (also impossible), the incentive will last until the end of March 2018.
According to my calculations from adding up the numbers on InsideEvs scorecard, Tesla was at 148,681 US sales at the end of October. They would have to sell 52,000 cars in two months. The most US deliveries they have had in a month was December last year when they delivers a little over 9000 US cars. And if they were close to 200,000 at the end of the year, all they need to do is delay enough deliveries until January and then the full incentive will last until the end of June. A diminished incentive will still be there for a full year after the $7500 runs out.
It is possible they will see a surge of Model 3 production in the next two months, but I still think they will just push off some deliveries to January to ensure the credit goes away with the maximum runway possible. It's more likely they will hit the mark around April 1 next year which will push the sunset date for the $7500 to the end of September. Remember only US sales count against the incentive. If the Model 3 ramps up and it looks like they will hit the mark before April 1, they can start sales in Canada early. They could also crank up to build demonstrator and showroom Model 3s too. Those will be sold eventually, but after April 1.
Tesla is currently delivering about 12,500 Model S and X in the US per quarter. Without counting Model 3 sales they will sell about 11,000 Model S/X in the US this year putting them around 160,000. Even if they deliver 10,000 Model 3 in the next two months, they will still be sitting around 170,000. That gives them 30,000 sales to manage Q1 2018 to push the mark to April 1.
If all the Model 3 problems are ironed out and they ramp up faster than anticipated, then they might hit the mark somewhere in Q1, but if they continue to have any problems at all, it will likely be early Q2.
Actually the slow launch could be a blessing in disguise for the reservation holders. If they have a sudden jump in production numbers in late Q1, those will be delivered early Q2 and they will be at fairly high volume of production for the last 6 months of the full tax credit. Maximizing the number of people who can get the full credit.
Though a lot of Model 3 buyers are going to find they don't qualify for the full credit. You have to owe over $7500 in federal income taxes and a lot of Model 3 buyers aren't going to make that kind of money. My income is more typical of a Model 3 buyer and I didn't use the full $7500 credit when I bought my Model S.