Model S range and interior update imminent?

[MarkS22]

Heard from my source. Quarter 3 for driveline definitely. Model 3 motor type motor in back and AC induction in front. There is other speculation that everyone has covered already so no need for me to fuel any of those fires.

If the Electrek article tonight is to believed, this aged well. The remaining question is if we'll see battery and/or interior refreshes at the same time.

Now that it's public (and also seen in public firmware code apparently), my bet is on sooner than later. Sales will take a hit on the current model if an upgrade seems "imminent."

 

[Matias]

Model S interior refresh is more imminent than it was at the start of this thread (possibly)

Not necessarily!

 

[zambono]

If the Electrek article tonight is to believed, this aged well. The remaining question is if we'll see battery and/or interior refreshes at the same time.

Now that it's public (and also seen in public firmware code apparently), my bet is on sooner than later. Sales will take a hit on the current model if an upgrade seems "imminent."

Sales have already taken a huge hit. That’s a reactionary post letting people know S and X hasn’t been abandoned and there will be updates soon.

 

[CraZ8]

If the Electrek article tonight is to believed, this aged well. The remaining question is if we'll see battery and/or interior refreshes at the same time.

Now that it's public (and also seen in public firmware code apparently), my bet is on sooner than later. Sales will take a hit on the current model if an upgrade seems "imminent."

Now we will have to see who was right. Will it be a mix of induction and permanent magnet motors or permanent all the way like the 3 for the S and X. Either way it’s coming and soon.

 

[Alset4S]

Is Tesla taking pre-orders?

 

[Zaxxon]

Now we will have to see who was right. Will it be a mix of induction and permanent magnet motors or permanent all the way like the 3 for the S and X. Either way it’s coming and soon.

Model 3 has an induction motor up front.

 

[boonedocks]

YAYAYAYYYY 100 Pages and 2 years of forum posts and an update is still imminent!!! (Joke)

 

[MarkS22]

Sales have already taken a huge hit. That’s a reactionary post letting people know S and X hasn’t been abandoned and there will be updates soon.

Yeah and that hit will only be worse with customers now expecting a motor/drivetrain upgrade. I think the majority thought it would be interior and/or battery at most.

I do agree the timing (immediately after a quarter) seems deliberate. And I’d expect the refresh to be availble by the end of this quarter.

 

[sillydriver]

Yeah and that hit will only be worse with customers now expecting a motor/drivetrain upgrade. I think the majority thought it would be interior and/or battery at most.

I do agree the timing (immediately after a quarter) seems deliberate. And I’d expect the refresh to be availble by the end of this quarter.

Yes, press reports like the one in Electrek Friday have set up a more realistic expectation for an imminent update than any time since this long thread (which is actually my favorite thread on the board) began. Anyone in the loop on these rumors - anyone on this board - would have to be in pretty unusual circumstances to buy a new S until at least the driveline changes are introduced. Then the near-term decline in S sales and Tesla's need to deliver the update soon are mutually reinforcing until the update is delivered. I agree it will come out soon.

On the plus side, a new driveline with a permanent market rear motor (or motors) seems like a big enough change that it and whatever comes with it (interior) is likely to be the most significant S update for a while. In other words, I doubt they would introduce the driveline in May and then a separate interior/exterior update two quarters later if for no other reason than it would upset those who buy the new driveline when it comes out. So with no expectations for a further update for a while (perhaps until a complete redesign in a couple years?) there would be no reason to wait further if you like the update and are in the market for a Tesla at that price point. S Sales should rebound to whatever their natural level is.

 

[wdolson]

Yes, press reports like the one in Electrek Friday have set up a more realistic expectation for an imminent update than any time since this long thread (which is actually my favorite thread on the board) began. Anyone in the loop on these rumors - anyone on this board - would have to be in pretty unusual circumstances to buy a new S until at least the driveline changes are introduced. Then the near-term decline in S sales and Tesla's need to deliver the update soon are mutually reinforcing until the update is delivered. I agree it will come out soon.

On the plus side, a new driveline with a permanent market rear motor (or motors) seems like a big enough change that it and whatever comes with it (interior) is likely to be the most significant S update for a while. In other words, I doubt they would introduce the driveline in May and then a separate interior/exterior update two quarters later if for no other reason than it would upset those who buy the new driveline when it comes out. So with no expectations for a further update for a while (perhaps until a complete redesign in a couple years?) there would be no reason to wait further if you like the update and are in the market for a Tesla at that price point. S Sales should rebound to whatever their natural level is.

They did something like that before. They released the refresh Model S in April 2016 and AP2 hardware in October of the same year. There were a lot of howls.

We also don't know if the motor update is going to come with anything else too.

 

[sillydriver]

They did something like that before. They released the refresh Model S in April 2016 and AP2 hardware in October of the same year. There were a lot of howls.

We also don't know if the motor update is going to come with anything else too.

I see your point. I had forgotten about that because AP2 turned out to be a downgrade from AP1 for at least a couple years. Also, being a person who doesn't care much about AP except for stop and go highway traffic, which AP1 does well, I would not have been upset to miss AP2 even if it did work. And I'm not sure about this but I think the AP2 timing was forced by the messy divorce from Mobileye and might not reflect rational product cycle planning by Tesla.

My comment was also colored by the fact that when I decided to buy an MS at the beginning of 2014 I decided to wait until they introduced a large enough update to give me comfort that they wouldn't deliver a further significant update after I bought. For me that update was dual-motor and the P85D: a driveline update, just like what is contemplated now. I recall that AP1 was announced around the same time, although I think it had already been shipping for a few months. Because of next generation seat availability I didn't take delivery until March 2015. Tesla did introduce Ludicrous not long thereafter, but they made P85D buyers whole by offering a retrofit (which I took) which showed they do care at least a little bit about not upsetting those who bought the first update. They introduced the refreshed exterior in early 16 as you said, but by that point the P85D was a year and a half old and I was frankly glad to have missed the exterior refresh! -- it's entirely a matter of my personal taste, but I like the old nose better.

If I were to buy the refreshed driveline, assuming it is in fact about to be released, and they followed it with a pleasing exterior refresh or a substantial interior refresh six months later I would be upset. However, I would bet against this happening because Tesla did wait a year and a half between the P85D driveline and the new nose, and because I would think that given the internal design changes needed for the new driveline and potential battery pack (cooling) changes it would make sense for them to do any interior reconfiguration at the same time. If no interior changes were introduced with the new driveline I would still feel good about making the bet that I was buying right after a significant update not before (hence my comments in the post above). In fact I am actually not planning to buy since I'm still very happy with my P85D. My personal plan is to wait until an exterior redesign in a couple/few years, or until the reliability of my car goes south.

 

[MP3Mike]

On the plus side, a new driveline with a permanent market rear motor (or motors) seems like a big enough change that it and whatever comes with it (interior) is likely to be the most significant S update for a while. In other words, I doubt they would introduce the driveline in May and then a separate interior/exterior update two quarters later if for no other reason than it would upset those who buy the new driveline when it comes out.

Elon has repeatedly said they will release updates/changes to the cars as they are ready, they don't wait and bundle them into refreshes. So I would fully expect the drive unit update to come separate from the interior/exterior updates.

 

[Lukez]

The drive unit update is tied to a battery pack update, going to be release in the next couple months. 400 mile range coming.

 

[wdolson]

I see your point. I had forgotten about that because AP2 turned out to be a downgrade from AP1 for at least a couple years. Also, being a person who doesn't care much about AP except for stop and go highway traffic, which AP1 does well, I would not have been upset to miss AP2 even if it did work. And I'm not sure about this but I think the AP2 timing was forced by the messy divorce from Mobileye and might not reflect rational product cycle planning by Tesla.

My comment was also colored by the fact that when I decided to buy an MS at the beginning of 2014 I decided to wait until they introduced a large enough update to give me comfort that they wouldn't deliver a further significant update after I bought. For me that update was dual-motor and the P85D: a driveline update, just like what is contemplated now. I recall that AP1 was announced around the same time, although I think it had already been shipping for a few months. Because of next generation seat availability I didn't take delivery until March 2015. Tesla did introduce Ludicrous not long thereafter, but they made P85D buyers whole by offering a retrofit (which I took) which showed they do care at least a little bit about not upsetting those who bought the first update. They introduced the refreshed exterior in early 16 as you said, but by that point the P85D was a year and a half old and I was frankly glad to have missed the exterior refresh! -- it's entirely a matter of my personal taste, but I like the old nose better.

If I were to buy the refreshed driveline, assuming it is in fact about to be released, and they followed it with a pleasing exterior refresh or a substantial interior refresh six months later I would be upset. However, I would bet against this happening because Tesla did wait a year and a half between the P85D driveline and the new nose, and because I would think that given the internal design changes needed for the new driveline and potential battery pack (cooling) changes it would make sense for them to do any interior reconfiguration at the same time. If no interior changes were introduced with the new driveline I would still feel good about making the bet that I was buying right after a significant update not before (hence my comments in the post above). In fact I am actually not planning to buy since I'm still very happy with my P85D. My personal plan is to wait until an exterior redesign in a couple/few years, or until the reliability of my car goes south.

It may have been driven by the Mobileye breakup. I too missed the AP2 rollout, but only by a few months, I took delivery in June 2016. I don't really miss it either, I rarely use AP.

There have been some smaller piecemeal changes. They also replaced the original multipattern seats in late 2016 and added backseat cup holders. I bought my car with the original multipattern seats and they were so bad for our backs I replaced them with the new leather seats in fall 2016. The week the service center got in the leather seats, the new multipattern seats came out.

 

[gilscales]

The drive unit update is tied to a battery pack update, going to be release in the next couple months. 400 mile range coming.

Not doubting but I assume you have some reliable inside info on this?

 

[zambono]

The drive unit update is tied to a battery pack update, going to be release in the next couple months. 400 mile range coming.

That would be nice, but not what the article states

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

I could see the motor upgrade happening at the same time as a battery upgrade because I can’t see Tesla re-engineering an “old” / soon to be discontinued battery pack for use with the new drive line only to ditch it a month or two down the road.

The only exception to this would be if the current long range 100d is going to become the base model s with 5% more range and the king if the hill second battery pack 130d ( long range ) will take the top spot.

 

[DocZ]

I think the upgrades are definitely happening this year. I don’t see Tesla pushing them back to next year when they have to worry about the Model Y, Semi, and Roadster.

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

I think the upgrades are definitely happening this year. I don’t see Tesla pushing them back to next year when they have to worry about the Model Y, Semi, and Roadster.

and fairly soon too -- the model S/X sales are crashing hard. for Tesla's sake - it's wise to get on it sooner rather than later.

 

[whitex]

Post #2000 here, the update is still imminent, right? If it didn't happen till now, it must be so much more imminent.