jonnyg
Member
Not officially from Tesla, but this site (Model3Tracker.info) has world maps and a tally and such.Does anyone here know where to find M3 reservation by country and by region in the US?
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Not officially from Tesla, but this site (Model3Tracker.info) has world maps and a tally and such.Does anyone here know where to find M3 reservation by country and by region in the US?
So www.tesla3counter.com has been mentioned by a few people since I last logged on
Sorry for the length, hope that covered everyone, if not let me know - should have more time to be on TMC now that the majority of my part of the new version is done.
Thank you for the effort. Seems everyone who placed an order WANTS to know they are closer to the front than your model says . I feared you were scammers, but your prompt removal of my data comforts me. You have picked a thankless journey - one needed but full of prickly answers.I wish you well.So www.tesla3counter.com has been mentioned by a few people since I last logged on, so its a been hard to quote just one person but I'll try to address the main points. An update first: I'll admit, version 1.0 of our algorithm was a bit off - but it gave us something to build off of, and now we're pretty excited because we have a version 2.0 of the algorithm that we're finished designing and working on adding to the website (should be live sometime around May 11th 2016). This version incorporates some cool features, and should provide a better estimate. We'll be noting it on your account when you log in, but we've included a simple machine learning feature, we've also refined the way priority is given to current owners and employees, and we've updated the production rates given the new information from the most recent investor call.
@NickHoffmann we are definitely not a phishing site - we are a group of long time Tesla fans who came up with an algorithm to help us figure out when we would get our Model 3s, we thought it was pretty cool and have built it into a website. That being said, since the next version of our website includes a very simple version of machine learning - meaning our algorithm will adjust with each new reservation holder's participation. So if you did just spam us, it would be appreciated if you could send us an email letting us know to delete your account or edit your your email confirmation time info. Thanks.
@StapleGun - our running estimate, this is based on our algorithm and is our best estimate. The last estimate that we received was that we are approaching 400K on April 13th 2016. Another 50K in a month ish seems reasonable considering it is a global market. But again, this is our estimate, and one thing we haven't factored in yet is the cancellation rate (will hopefully be including this in a version 2.1 (or later) of the algorithm).
@Desert Driver, your information was deleted (we delete anyone that requests it). But you're always welcome back, and like I mentioned, the more reservation holders participate the more accurate an estimate we will be able to provide (with version 2.0).
@BlairC @iawlael @heysteveh , I know your estimates were a bit off, but they were the best we could do at the time with the info that was available. We've refined our algorithm for version 2.0 and based on my testing, I believe our estimate is much more accurate.
@UncleMoose , thanks for checking out the site. Check back soon, but maybe if you get a chance send us an email to edit your info to use your email confirmation time - this is what our algorithm is able to adjust for. Using the time you place the order could throw off your estimate since there were some instances that people would place orders and their credit card was not authorized immediately.
@N5329K , thanks for checking out the site. Our algorithm isn't perfect, but we're working to refine it as we go (it's an on going project for us).
Sorry for the length, hope that covered everyone, if not let me know - should have more time to be on TMC now that the majority of my part of the new version is done.
Well, I finally "bit" and signed up. All I can say is "Ouch" - March 2020 for a 4/2/2016 reservation date?
Didn't know there were so many Tesla owners who are buying Tesla Model 3's!! According to the reservation talley Excel chart I signed up somewhere between 250,000 and 273,000, but yet my tesla3counter number is 320,842!!!
I know this isn't an exact science but the algorithm doesn't even reflect an estimate. It'll be interesting to see what algorithm v2.0 will change ...
I turned in my Leaf in February this year. Boy do I miss driving electric!! Even though I drive an older Prius now, I still have to get gasoline and change the oil, both of which I did yesterday.For me : may 2020 for a 4/9/2016 reservation date ...! I said "ouch ouch"... I hope a BIG mistake in the algorithm because I have to change my Leaf before.
So www.tesla3counter.com has been mentioned by a few people since I last logged on, so its a been hard to quote just one person but I'll try to address the main points. An update first: I'll admit, version 1.0 of our algorithm was a bit off - but it gave us something to build off of, and now we're pretty excited because we have a version 2.0 of the algorithm that we're finished designing and working on adding to the website (should be live sometime around May 11th 2016). This version incorporates some cool features, and should provide a better estimate. We'll be noting it on your account when you log in, but we've included a simple machine learning feature, we've also refined the way priority is given to current owners and employees, and we've updated the production rates given the new information from the most recent investor call.
@NickHoffmann we are definitely not a phishing site - we are a group of long time Tesla fans who came up with an algorithm to help us figure out when we would get our Model 3s, we thought it was pretty cool and have built it into a website. That being said, since the next version of our website includes a very simple version of machine learning - meaning our algorithm will adjust with each new reservation holder's participation. So if you did just spam us, it would be appreciated if you could send us an email letting us know to delete your account or edit your your email confirmation time info. Thanks.
@StapleGun - our running estimate, this is based on our algorithm and is our best estimate. The last estimate that we received was that we are approaching 400K on April 13th 2016. Another 50K in a month ish seems reasonable considering it is a global market. But again, this is our estimate, and one thing we haven't factored in yet is the cancellation rate (will hopefully be including this in a version 2.1 (or later) of the algorithm).
@Desert Driver, your information was deleted (we delete anyone that requests it). But you're always welcome back, and like I mentioned, the more reservation holders participate the more accurate an estimate we will be able to provide (with version 2.0).
@BlairC @iawlael @heysteveh , I know your estimates were a bit off, but they were the best we could do at the time with the info that was available. We've refined our algorithm for version 2.0 and based on my testing, I believe our estimate is much more accurate.
@UncleMoose , thanks for checking out the site. Check back soon, but maybe if you get a chance send us an email to edit your info to use your email confirmation time - this is what our algorithm is able to adjust for. Using the time you place the order could throw off your estimate since there were some instances that people would place orders and their credit card was not authorized immediately.
@N5329K , thanks for checking out the site. Our algorithm isn't perfect, but we're working to refine it as we go (it's an on going project for us).
Sorry for the length, hope that covered everyone, if not let me know - should have more time to be on TMC now that the majority of my part of the new version is done.
So www.tesla3counter.com has been mentioned by a few people since I last logged on, so its a been hard to quote just one person but I'll try to address the main points. An update first: I'll admit, version 1.0 of our algorithm was a bit off - but it gave us something to build off of, and now we're pretty excited because we have a version 2.0 of the algorithm that we're finished designing and working on adding to the website (should be live sometime around May 11th 2016). This version incorporates some cool features, and should provide a better estimate. We'll be noting it on your account when you log in, but we've included a simple machine learning feature, we've also refined the way priority is given to current owners and employees, and we've updated the production rates given the new information from the most recent investor call.
@NickHoffmann we are definitely not a phishing site - we are a group of long time Tesla fans who came up with an algorithm to help us figure out when we would get our Model 3s, we thought it was pretty cool and have built it into a website. That being said, since the next version of our website includes a very simple version of machine learning - meaning our algorithm will adjust with each new reservation holder's participation. So if you did just spam us, it would be appreciated if you could send us an email letting us know to delete your account or edit your your email confirmation time info. Thanks.
@StapleGun - our running estimate, this is based on our algorithm and is our best estimate. The last estimate that we received was that we are approaching 400K on April 13th 2016. Another 50K in a month ish seems reasonable considering it is a global market. But again, this is our estimate, and one thing we haven't factored in yet is the cancellation rate (will hopefully be including this in a version 2.1 (or later) of the algorithm).
@Desert Driver, your information was deleted (we delete anyone that requests it). But you're always welcome back, and like I mentioned, the more reservation holders participate the more accurate an estimate we will be able to provide (with version 2.0).
@BlairC @iawlael @heysteveh , I know your estimates were a bit off, but they were the best we could do at the time with the info that was available. We've refined our algorithm for version 2.0 and based on my testing, I believe our estimate is much more accurate.
@UncleMoose , thanks for checking out the site. Check back soon, but maybe if you get a chance send us an email to edit your info to use your email confirmation time - this is what our algorithm is able to adjust for. Using the time you place the order could throw off your estimate since there were some instances that people would place orders and their credit card was not authorized immediately.
@N5329K , thanks for checking out the site. Our algorithm isn't perfect, but we're working to refine it as we go (it's an on going project for us).
Sorry for the length, hope that covered everyone, if not let me know - should have more time to be on TMC now that the majority of my part of the new version is done.
That means Tax Credits for almost all of them?More then half of the orders are from China and Europe that means roughly 200,000 order are from N.America so most orders will be delivered end of 2017 or spring 2018, if all as promised by Elon.
More then half of the orders are from China and Europe that means roughly 200,000 order are from N.America so most orders will be delivered end of 2017 or spring 2018, if all as promised by Elon.
Maybe before 2020 after this tweet of Evercharge :
Elon Musk: #Tesla #Model3 Production Target Is Up To 200,000 In Second Half Of 2017Elon Musk: Tesla Model 3 Production Target Is Up To 200,000 In Second Half Of 2017
Impossible n'est pas français and.... with Musk at the helm anything is possible.
I agree that 2.0 is still off, or at least I hope it is. I reserved at approx. 10:30 am on 3/31 but didn't get my email confirmation until a week later. According to 2.0, I'm 409,230th in line, and should get my car in December, 2018. That isn't right, as I had to be in the first 115,000 also.Well 2.0 is better, but it still shows me as 182,483 even though I reserved in line about ten hours prior to Elon saying they had just hit 115,000. So it's extremely likely I'm in the first 115,000 reservations somewhere. Given that I placed my order at about 10 am PST in California I suspect I'm within the first 50,000-80,000 reservations.
Maybe a user choice as to whether or not the deposit was made prior to or after the car's official reveal on stage would allow a definitive 115,000 break point and further refine results.