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Looks like your basic exponentially charging (RC) shape:Did this before I saw the google based graph - mine is based on the data in the wiki post here but with an X axis linear in time. Thought it would be nice to have it here, too. Use it for the wiki if you like it.
View attachment 171457
Looks like your basic exponentially charging (RC) shape:
Reservations = (Total_Reservations@infinity)*(1-exp(-time/Time_constant))
When I get some time, I'll fit that curve to the equation and see what I get for the Final Total Reservations and the Time_constant.
But if the new reservations are a trickle, it might be matched by some drop outs. In this case, I'm calling infinity 6-9 months.Yeah, looks like that. However, I would guess that this curve will not go to a constant (which would mean no additional reservations coming in any more), but a constant slope in the mid term (before the second part of the reveal or any other substantial news re Model 3). Also, be careful about extrapolating data of one week to infinity .
Nicely done will put that in the wiki.Exponential graph looks like it topped out. Any orders/cancellations after this point will fit a different equation.
Orders = 320,000(1-exp(-hours/29hrs))
Rsquare goodness of fit is 0.996
Interesting, Tesla does a lot to test safety...wonder who was the previous owner of that Model S.On the bright side, getting a later production car is generally preferable from a quality standpoint. Maybe you can justify any additional wait this way. Consumer Reports infamously removed the Model S "Recommended" rating a few months ago, largely based on early production cars' quality problems. I bought a used Signature Model S (VIN under 600) and have had a lot of small-to-medium problems with it in the past three months. It's annoying even with a warranty, but when the warranty is over it'll be a whole different story. (Rattling trim, worn out bolts causing loud clank when moving from a stop, unresponsive door handle, malfunctioning "false positive" parking sensors (OEM parts retrofitted by Tesla), seized side mirrors, charging problems (drops to 30 amps for no apparent reason and says "Charging problem" on dashboard), moisture inside taillights, blurry backup camera...) Tesla is quick to address issues, but in my experience, the problems tend to return after a while.
But still ... what ?
500 an hour is tremendous
Even the most rabid and optimistic Tesla fan knows to expect a taper ;-)
I wonder how big the market is of people who take a wait and see approach. In other products it is easily 10x if the first generation lives up to the hype.
I also think there are a lot of people taking the wait and see approach. I know one guy who went, checkbook in hand, to a store to reserve on 3/31, but then left when he saw the line. He says he's been thinking about reserving, but since there are already so many reservations he's going to wait to find out more before deciding. He also said that he figures since there are already so many reservations there's no way he's going to qualify for the US Federal Tax Credit, so he may not be able to afford it. I also know someone else who's thinking about reserving, but just waiting for some reason. I know three people who've put in reservations (other than me).I suspect fairly large. I for one, am waiting for the "it won't be a hatchback", because a sedan really doesn't meet our needs.
Yep, I think of them as the BMW wannabees, although I'm not sure how many will actually buy when it is realized that the tax credit has elapsed. Of course by then the M3 may be cheaper and then Tesla will take over the world.I know some well heeled people who didn't know too much about this first hand. They are going to put in for one or two models. I'm not sure why as i see them in a model S much more than a model 3. Once 100,000 people are driving these and the news (assuming positive) gets out, there should be a third wave. The second wave would be after they have their 2nd reveal. Just looking into my crystal ball...
1) The Super Chargers are really for long distance travel and probably will handle it. 99% of owners charge at home almost exclusively. Tesla has added stalls to existing sites when they were consistently full.So after poking around a bit, as a new Tesla fan who reserved a Model 3 late. I have some questions and observations.
What has been done already with the Roadster, Model S, X has been amazing! The Supercharger network is totally cool, Tesla has paved the way for real EC acceptance-- which is part of the reason I'm here.
The Model 3 is a game changer. It got my attension as it is in the price range of my typical new car. I've been driving BMW 3-series and I currently own an Audi A3. I like cars and technology, but am conserviative in how I spend my money.
So now the questions.
I was number 325K + 1 in signing up for the Model 3. How long is it really going to take me to get this car? I have a 2015 Audi A3 which I really like, I signed up for the Model 3 because I anticipate it will take as long to get it as I typically keep a car which is 4 to 6 years. I want to switch to a better car for the environment and I think EC is the future and Tesla is leading the way.
1) Can the Supercharger network really handle 325k new customers even with the current published expansion?
2) I live in an older 1950's house, can I upgrade my electrical system to use a Tesla charger? What if my partner wants one too? Can we do two?
3) How much does it really cost to own a Tesla? Is the cost to charge my car lower than what I'm paying for gasoline?
4) Is it really better for the environment? I live in Indianapolis and have options to switch to renewable energy sources, but most of our electricity come from coal.
5) I'm used to doing business with automotive companies that have dealerships in my city. Tesla has a store at one of our malls but does not have other resources near by. How will I service my car? With 14 billion dollars in anticipated sales is it going to change before I get my car?
I'd also add that I'd prefer to use coal instead of imported oil if given the choice between the two options. Coal will eventually go away. So will gasoline, but that will take longer. You'll be surprised at how nice it is not to have to stop at a gas station.So after poking around a bit, as a new Tesla fan who reserved a Model 3 late. I have some questions and observations.
What has been done already with the Roadster, Model S, X has been amazing! The Supercharger network is totally cool, Tesla has paved the way for real EC acceptance-- which is part of the reason I'm here.
The Model 3 is a game changer. It got my attension as it is in the price range of my typical new car. I've been driving BMW 3-series and I currently own an Audi A3. I like cars and technology, but am conserviative in how I spend my money.
So now the questions.
I was number 325K + 1 in signing up for the Model 3. How long is it really going to take me to get this car? I have a 2015 Audi A3 which I really like, I signed up for the Model 3 because I anticipate it will take as long to get it as I typically keep a car which is 4 to 6 years. I want to switch to a better car for the environment and I think EC is the future and Tesla is leading the way.
1) Can the Supercharger network really handle 325k new customers even with the current published expansion?
2) I live in an older 1950's house, can I upgrade my electrical system to use a Tesla charger? What if my partner wants one too? Can we do two?
3) How much does it really cost to own a Tesla? Is the cost to charge my car lower than what I'm paying for gasoline?
4) Is it really better for the environment? I live in Indianapolis and have options to switch to renewable energy sources, but most of our electricity come from coal.
5) I'm used to doing business with automotive companies that have dealerships in my city. Tesla has a store at one of our malls but does not have other resources near by. How will I service my car? With 14 billion dollars in anticipated sales is it going to change before I get my car?
as a possible real world bad example. I have been driving a "It_who_mustnot_benamedPHEv" for 28 months and have a house built in about 1955. I drove about 20-40 miles a day (i kept a spreadsheet for 15 months). I went to harbor freight, bought an Orange, 10 guage extension cord, plugged into a 110v outlet, set vehicle at 12amps and 95% of time sufficient. just keep it charged up. 10 seconds to plug in. would have got 240v EVSE except moving and house will be McMansioned/bulldozed. it can be that simple. As for 2, not sure about thatSo after poking around a bit, as a new Tesla fan who reserved a Model 3 late. I have some questions and observations.
2) I live in an older 1950's house, can I upgrade my electrical system to use a Tesla charger? What if my partner wants one too? Can we do two?