Model 3 Highland Performance/Plaid Speculation [Car announced 04.23.2024]

[cptnslo]

They wouldn't be slashing a majority of the cars they sell by many thousands of dollars. The 3 is much less popular than the Y. Also, I do wonder how many Tesla buyers actually qualify for the tax credit, that would be some interesting data to see.

A few possibilities:

- They lower the cost of the 3LR to $47,490 ($54,990-$7,500), a $250 price cut from the current price. This would mean any buyer that qualifies for the tax credit can get the Ludicrous 3 for the same cost as a 3LR. If they can't make enough batteries, people will be stuck waiting months on the Ludicrous trim or they'll have to opt for the LR instead.

- If they really need to push people to the LR trim, they can drop the price of the LR by $2-3k.

- They can just ignore the tax credit completely (even though it will technically qualify for it) and price the Ludicrous 3 at $51,240 which is $3,500 higher than the 3LR, the same gap between the YLR and YP. Though, if they're ignoring the tax credit completely, why wouldn't they just take advantage of early adopters and use the Model S LR to Plaid pricing approach and price it 15k higher at $62,740?

I think I just talked myself into believing it's going to be $62,740 at launch, lol.

Lmao I mean that’s what I’ve been fully expecting pricing around for the past few weeks lol

 

[Knightshade]

They wouldn't be slashing a majority of the cars they sell by many thousands of dollars.

Majority of the Model 3s they sell.

Apologies if that wasn't clear.


The math simply does not work if you have to cut 80% of your sales by 5k in order to get 5k more from 20% of your sales of the various 3 configs.

. Also, I do wonder how many Tesla buyers actually qualify for the tax credit, that would be some interesting data to see.

For their least expensive model? Most I'd imagine, especially now that you no longer need any specific amount of tax liability

- They lower the cost of the 3LR to $47,490 ($54,990-$7,500), a $250 price cut from the current price. This would mean any buyer that qualifies for the tax credit can get the Ludicrous 3 for the same cost as a 3LR. If they can't make enough batteries, people will be stuck waiting months on the Ludicrous trim or they'll have to opt for the LR instead.

That seems a terrible option though. "We have this super exciting new car you can't actually obtain.... or you can take this much less performant version for the same price now!"

- If they really need to push people to the LR trim, they can drop the price of the LR by $2-3k.

That's thousands below the traditional gap in LR to P pricing-- and unlikely to be enough to move buyers off the P, which again they won't be able to make near enough of.

- They can just ignore the tax credit completely (even though it will technically qualify for it) and price the Ludicrous 3 at $51,240 which is $3,500 higher than the 3LR, the same gap between the YLR and YP.

Except with the Y you CAN ignore the credit because both qualify. If only one does (like with the 3) you can't.

Though, if they're ignoring the tax credit completely, why wouldn't they just take advantage of early adopters and use the Model S LR to Plaid pricing approach and price it 15k higher at $62,740?

I think I just talked myself into believing it's going to be $62,740 at launch, lol.

Yup. Not much else besides >55k makes sense when you actually run the math.

 

[whoosierdaddy]

For their least expensive model?

For tax credit eligible buyers this is the Y btw (for now).

 

[Vaillant]

My theory (that I just came up with after reading the recent comments):

The M3L will be above $55k until they get their domestic battery supply bottlenecks resolved for the lower specs of the Model 3. Once the LR and SR are eligible, they’ll drop the M3L price to be eligible as well. Then you keep the price delta between all of the models without having to drop LR and SR prices.

 

[Lets go Plaid]

5% drop in the share price over night with staff to be cut by 10%. I think their results could disappoint the market. As I've said before they need to price this car competitively and do volume. The final countdown begins.

 

[ks1972]

5% drop in the share price over night with staff to be cut by 10%. I think their results could disappoint the market. As I've said before they need to price this car competitively and do volume. The final countdown begins.

And offer more choices, like stalks even at an additional cost. I would order 2 new cars to replace mine

 

[arkhos]

If at the end of the day the new Performance model was the same as last year's with only the Highland changes, I'd be in line to buy one... UNLESS it's ridiculously priced. There are a lot of the Highland changes alone I am pretty excited about, and the stalkless design does not bother me at all. A lot will depend on the final list of changes/improvements, but if it's priced too outrageously, I'll just get in line for an LR.

That said, my gut is telling me that any performance improvements over the previous M3P will be very incremental and priced around $60k. I've been following this thread since the start and I know there will probably be some disappointment to some degree barring some miracle specs. I think some of the predictions here have been really optimistic, and of course I hope they're right, but won't be shocked if it's nowhere near as good as we hope. If it qualifies for the tax incentive, I would be incredibly pleasantly surprised and ready to whip out the wallet.

 

[whoosierdaddy]

Just 3 or 4 more sleeps. Goodnight folks.

 

[mpgxsvcd]

Just 3 or 4 more sleeps. Goodnight folks.

Just 2 now.

 

[Lindenwood]

Honestly I feel like most of the optimism about its specs come from our shared desire to continue championing EVs. I find myself rooting for Elon’s underdog vision than EVs can be more than simply quirky around-town vehicles (but even drag kings and cone crushers).

I was cross-shopping M3s, Hellcats, and even used 911 Turbos before I bought my M3P. These comparisons wouldnt have even been on the table 10 years ago. Pushing boundaries is how we got here (and to rockets that land themselves, etc).

So, we all just want to see boundaries pushed.

(And, to chime in with my motivation, I would NOT upgrade for 2.9/11.0, but would probably consider a 2025 for 2.6/10.6).

 

[mpgxsvcd]

Tesla absolutely needs some good publicity this weekend. They need something to counter the really horrible financial news that they have to disclose.

Some people still think in terms of ICE cars for how much improvement we can expect. There were always traction limits and reliability issues when you got to 10 second 1/4 mile ICE times before.

That isn’t necessarily the case now with EVs. You can do mid 10s on all season tires with no reliably issues at all with an EV.

You might think that a 1 second 1/4 mile time jump for the Model 3 Performance is impossible. I don’t think it is. The current Model 3 Performance isn’t pushed to its limits at all.

 

[Engi_Nerd]

Reports from a few weeks ago put the release in May. Has anyone seen anything remotely concrete to suggest this week? Speculation about trying to leverage the release to buoy a brutal earning calls seems a bit fanboi-wishful to me.

Also I've been in Tesla's corner for a good long while and the current state of things is starting to give me pause. The only model they currently have the tax credit for is the one everyone is waiting to be refreshed. You've got the stop sale on the slow drip release of CT, which is still $40K over OG price. White interior M3 Highlands are now several months late and nowhere to be seen. And Musk's relentless obsession with FSD, which best case in perfect daylight weather is about as smart as a horse, seems to only be getting more unhinged. Just kinda seems like things are coming off the rails a bit.

 

[mpgxsvcd]

Reports from a few weeks ago put the release in May. Has anyone seen anything remotely concrete to suggest this week? Speculation about trying to leverage the release to buoy a brutal earning calls seems a bit fanboi-wishful to me.

Also I've been in Tesla's corner for a good long while and the current state of things is starting to give me pause. The only model they currently have the tax credit for is the one everyone is waiting to be refreshed. You've got the stop sale on the slow drip release of CT, which is still $40K over OG price. White interior M3 Highlands are now several months late and nowhere to be seen. And Musk's relentless obsession with FSD, which best case in perfect daylight weather is about as smart as a horse, seems to only be getting more unhinged. Just kinda seems like things are coming off the rails a bit.

Tesla has said absolutely zero about the Model 3 Ludicrous so if you are looking for something official it just simply won’t happen yet.

 

[FastLaneJB]

Reports from a few weeks ago put the release in May. Has anyone seen anything remotely concrete to suggest this week? Speculation about trying to leverage the release to buoy a brutal earning calls seems a bit fanboi-wishful to me.

Also I've been in Tesla's corner for a good long while and the current state of things is starting to give me pause. The only model they currently have the tax credit for is the one everyone is waiting to be refreshed. You've got the stop sale on the slow drip release of CT, which is still $40K over OG price. White interior M3 Highlands are now several months late and nowhere to be seen. And Musk's relentless obsession with FSD, which best case in perfect daylight weather is about as smart as a horse, seems to only be getting more unhinged. Just kinda seems like things are coming off the rails a bit.

They showed and let the press drive it at the start of this month, why would they do that a whole month before they plan to announce it?

It also leaked on French TV that they potentially plan to talk about this car on this coming Sunday's show. Assuming that's true, the embargo has to end before or on Sunday.

If Elon posted on Twitter or came on stage to show the car and said it's coming soon then we'd probably not see it until 2032 at the earliest. However they are being secretive which means it likely really is soon.

 

[Surfer]

Reports from a few weeks ago put the release in May. Has anyone seen anything remotely concrete to suggest this week? Speculation about trying to leverage the release to buoy a brutal earning calls seems a bit fanboi-wishful to me.

Also I've been in Tesla's corner for a good long while and the current state of things is starting to give me pause. The only model they currently have the tax credit for is the one everyone is waiting to be refreshed. You've got the stop sale on the slow drip release of CT, which is still $40K over OG price. White interior M3 Highlands are now several months late and nowhere to be seen. And Musk's relentless obsession with FSD, which best case in perfect daylight weather is about as smart as a horse, seems to only be getting more unhinged. Just kinda seems like things are coming off the rails

....about as smart as horse......HA HA HA HA. I actually think FSD is an amazing achievement, but you are hilarious.

 

[mpgxsvcd]

At 20:00 into this video it shows the Hyundai Ioniq 5N doing 0-60 mph in 3.13 seconds without subtracting rollout. That would be 2.9 with rollout subtracted.

Are you expecting the Model 3 Ludicrous to just match this 4,861 lb vehicle’s 0-60 mph?

 

[Mash]

I need tesla shares to go lower, before I buy some more. No need for a good news. Please more bad news for people with short attention span.

 

[Lolo780]

I need tesla shares to go lower, before I buy some more. No need for a good news. Please more bad news for people with short attention span.

Short TSLA and then buy a 3L. My puts went over 500% today.

With all the chaos at Tesla right now I doubt the new 3 is high on the priority list.

 

[Sweed269]

At 20:00 into this video it shows the Hyundai Ioniq 5N doing 0-60 mph in 3.13 seconds without subtracting rollout. That would be 2.9 with rollout subtracted.

Are you expecting the Model 3 Ludicrous to just match this 4,861 lb vehicle’s 0-60 mph?

At the end he dropped the tidbit that another hot electric car embargo is next Tuesday 4-23-24. Gotta be the M3L.

 

[12B4A]

At the end he dropped the tidbit that another hot electric car embargo is next Tuesday 4-23-24. Gotta be the M3L.

Better tell that French show since they are releasing that episode on the 21st.

Also, M3Ps are lining up in Shanghai:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780293492184351117

This seems to be conforming to April production ramp in China with Fremont happening up to a month later.