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Wiki Model 3 delivery estimator

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My original delivery estimate said Nov-Jan, and I made plans (booked hotel,etc.) for a "new car road trip" in mid Feb.
But delivery estimate changed to Dec-Feb, and now it is starting to feel like I will end up doing that road trip in the old ICEmobile instead...
 
I need to change how owner priorities work. Here is a map of 24 owners who received invites in the 4 January batch. 21 are configuring now. I assumed the owner priority would only move you to the front of your regional queue and you would still have to wait until Tesla starts production for that region. However, they are not doing this. As you can see, owners from East Coast have priority over line-waiters from California.

Maybe we're all thinking about this the wrong way. I think something you mentioned earlier is a better explanation of the behavior from Tesla that we're seeing: delivery center saturation.

From Tesla's perspective, they have X cars that can come out of the factory every week. The cars then need to go somewhere. So how do you choose where and to whom? Well, we know they prioritize owner status and reservation time in some fashion, but far more important for them is how far they have to ship it (cut down on their liabilities, delivery time, etc). So what if they actually send out invites as a way to fill up 'delivery center schedule' ordered by proximity to the factory? That is, given the number that will be produced in week N, they look at all delivery centers and start giving out invites to fill up time at local then distant centers. Initially production was slow enough that Fremont and then MDR could handle all the output. Now we're starting to see overflow into other delivery centers.

Put another way, what if what we should be concerned about as people trying to predict our place in line is: 1) total weekly production and 2) where we are in the queue for our delivery center/area. For example, someone in SoCal is only really ordered relative to other people in SoCal, and how many cars MDR can deliver per week.
 
This is only my intuition -- but as a Tesla owner who just reserved @ the end of December 2017 -- I think less priority is now being given to prior Model S/X owners who reserved recently. If this turns out to be true, I would be fine with it, as others have been waiting much longer than me. Again, just pure speculation.

I'm calculating 34,000 owner reservations globally, 19,000 from the US and 9,000 of those 19K are AWD. It will take a few batch of invites until they clear out the US owner list. Of course, owners are also sorted within their own group by their reservation date.

9,000 AWD owner reservations would take only 10 days in September. Therefore it looks like all owners anywhere in the US will have their AWD Model 3 delivered before 30 Sep 2018 as long as long as Tesla starts making AWD by 10 Sep 2018. I have allowed 10 days for production and 10 days for deliveries. Average delivery time in the USA is 10 days varying between 5 to 18 days depending on the region.

It would be interesting to find out what happens if somebody becomes an owner now. Would it make sense to buy a used Model S in order to get $7,500 for AWD instead of $3,750? I don't know but it is an interesting idea considering that they will ship all owner AWD orders as soon as they start making AWD cars. Of course, I mean after employees but those require only 2 days of production.
 
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Here is the latest invites maps:

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My original delivery estimate said Nov-Jan, and I made plans (booked hotel,etc.) for a "new car road trip" in mid Feb.
But delivery estimate changed to Dec-Feb, and now it is starting to feel like I will end up doing that road trip in the old ICEmobile instead...

My guess is you would be correct. I did somewhat the same, my window is Dec-Feb and I scheduled a road trip for end of March and I still don't think I'll have my car by then :(
 
It would be interesting to find out what happens if somebody becomes an owner now. Would it make sense to buy a used Model S in order to get $7,500 for AWD instead of $3,750? I don't know but it is an interesting idea

Troy, full points for your work on this,thank you!

I saw a post from a new CPO owner who took delivery in December 2017 and got their Model 3 invite yesterday! It's a thing. Buy a new Tesla, get bumped immediately, at least in that one case reported.

We bought a CPO in 2015, we couldn't wait, so we bought used and have been enjoying Tesla ownership for 2.5 years now, and we paid less than it will cost to get the Model 3 we want at the end of this year.
 
I'm calculating 34,000 owner reservations globally, 19,000 from the US and 9,000 of those 19K are AWD. It will take a few batch of invites until they clear out the US owner list. Of course, owners are also sorted within their own group by their reservation date.

9,000 AWD owner reservations would take only 10 days in September. Therefore it looks like all owners anywhere in the US will have their AWD Model 3 delivered before 30 Sep 2018 as long as long as Tesla starts making AWD by 10 Sep 2018. I have allowed 10 days for production and 10 days for deliveries. Average delivery time in the USA is 10 days varying between 5 to 18 days depending on the region.

It would be interesting to find out what happens if somebody becomes an owner now. Would it make sense to buy a used Model S in order to get $7,500 for AWD instead of $3,750? I don't know but it is an interesting idea considering that they will ship all owner AWD orders as soon as they start making AWD cars. Of course, I mean after employees but those require only 2 days of production.
All of your responses are impressive! Thanks for the hard work!
 
@SmartElectric, thanks for the info.

@FredLambert, I saw this recent article: Tesla opens Model 3 configurator to reservation holders on the East Coast and Midwest. This makes it sound like Tesla made a web page public. That's not the news. Until now, most people including myself were assuming that owner priority would come into play once Tesla starts making cars for a region because they had said this in a blog post:
When production begins, we will begin deliveries in North America starting on the West Coast, moving east. Source

Now they are sending invites to configure to owners anywhere in the US. See the latest map 3 messages ago. After you configure, a VIN number is assigned, then the car goes into production and it is delivered. Then Tesla continues with a new batch of invites. See the invite dates in column H here.

That means owners on the East Coast will get their car before line-waiters from California. That's perfectly fine but it was unexpected. That's the main news. In addition, that means existing owners who reserve a Model 3 now will most likely get their car in 1-2 months. Also, it means existing reservation holders who become owners now will get their car soon too. The most extreme case would be if somebody becomes an owner and reserves a Model 3 now. This person too will probably get their car very soon. That's the news. Ideally, Tesla should clarify whether there is a deadline for owner priority in terms of people buying a Model S/X now or owners reserving a Model 3 now.

Another interesting detail is that implementing owner priority this way is good news for owners who want an AWD Model 3 because Tesla is expected to start AWD production in August or September and the federal tax credits drop from $7,500 to $3,750 for deliveries after 30 Sep 2018. Therefore Tesla handling owner priority this way is big news that affects many people. Owners who are waiting for AWD should definitely continue waiting.
 
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@Troy Do the current date range estimates from Tesla work with the current delivery estimate tool? If not, what is more likely.... 1)Tesla will send out another delay to reservation holder's range, or 2)The estimate tool needs a different distribution model?

With the 5K weekly number slipping, it seems like Tesla will have to send out more range delays, right?

PS- Thanks again for the tool and even more importantly all the maintenance and adjustments trying to keep it accurate with continously changing data!
 
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I'm pretty sure the regional priorities will work like this because you can look at Tesla's delivery estimates and see how it works. In the screenshot, you can see that many Central or Eastern reservations show the same estimate as the earliest CA. As the reservation time increases, the estimate changes from Dec to Jan. That shows there is actually a calculation behind this and they are not just displaying the same thing to everybody.

Z651ajW.gif





I created the Estimator in September 2016 and there were no Tesla estimates at that time. Therefore at that time, my assumption was based on common sense. If you look at the message here from October 2016, you can see that I was expecting 2 weeks gaps between regions. My idea was that it wouldn't make sense to overwhelm CA delivery centers with huge numbers while the rest of the US is not delivering any Model 3s. I thought a team from Tesla would travel from region to region and inspect every delivery center before giving the green light. That would take some time but not that much time.

Now I watch the invites to see how it works. Check out column C here. I might need to change owner priorities. I assumed owners would have priority in their region once deliveries start there. However, it looks like Tesla is not waiting for that. They are shipping owner cars anywhere in the US now. Again look at column C on that spreadsheet. I think they are not waiting for delivery centers to be ready because owner cars can be delivered together with S/X anywhere in the US. The numbers are not that big. Only 7% of reservations are from existing owners.

You might say if owner priorities work differently, why didn't you change it until now? Because this is new. The data was added in the last 24 hours. A new batch of invites went out yesterday. Look at the dates in column H.
Troy, you're a rock star and your work on this model is award-worthy. It's a major bummer that anyone has the nerve to criticize your work at all. I very much appreciate your work on two levels: I'm a non-owner rez holder so love the detail you offer (compared to Tesla's range), and I'm in awe of what you put together since I lack those skills, so I get enjoyment seeing what I view as a work of art. Cheers.
 
Troy, you're a rock star and your work on this model is award-worthy. It's a major bummer that anyone has the nerve to criticize your work at all. I very much appreciate your work on two levels: I'm a non-owner rez holder so love the detail you offer (compared to Tesla's range), and I'm in awe of what you put together since I lack those skills, so I get enjoyment seeing what I view as a work of art. Cheers.
I have to agree with this man. Troy thank you for setting all of this up particularly as a side job. Surely it's a better estimate than I could ever come up with :)
 
A small glitch in the estimator regarding tax credits? I'm seeing:

View attachment 271322

Doesn’t look like a glitch to me. The consensus is that Tesla will hit 200K US deliveries some time in Q2. That means that Q2 and Q3 should both get the full $7500 credit. If this holds true, then Q4 which the estimator is showing you’d get your performance Model 3 would have the credit cut in 1/2. I believe the quarter after that also is half and the 2 quarters after that are half that again until it’s completely gone.

Also I don’t think any info on a performance Model 3 has been released. Who knows if it would even be available in 2018.
 
@insaneoctane, I think Tesla will update their estimates because the last update was when they moved 5000/week to the end of Q1. Now they have moved it to end of Q2 but they didn't update their estimates yet. We will have to wait and see.

@hoang51,
I don't see a problem. The global reservation number is early because you reserved early but if you look a few rows below that, there is a row called "Your global production sequence no". It shows that you will get the 138,469 .th Tesla. How is this possible? Easy, you are selecting the Performance version which starts production on 7 Sep 2018 for your region. It shows this date 2 rows below 6943.

As for tax credits, there is no error because the dates overlap.

Optimistic scenario: $3,750 for deliveries from 1 Oct 2018 to Mar 31, 2019
Pessimistic scenario: $3,750 for deliveries from 1 Jul 2018 to Dec 31, 2018
10 October 2018 is within both date ranges. That means if you take delivery in October, November or December 2018 you will get $3,750 either way.

Also I don’t think any info on a performance Model 3 has been released. Who knows if it would even be available in 2018.

The performance version with Ludicrous mode was confirmed by Elon here. In March 2017, Elon said production might start at the end of March 2018 here, but then at the end of July 2017, he said mid-2018 here. At that time earliest AWD owner estimate was Jun 2018 - Aug 2018. There were delays after that. Therefore in my model, I'm using September 2018 for the performance version.
 
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That means owners on the East Coast will get their car before line-waiters from California. That's perfectly fine but it was unexpected...

Why is that "perfectly fine"? Are you not in California?
Line-waiter, non-owners in California may not think this is "perfectly fine".
I don't.

Based on what had been said before the lines formed, I had the expectation that being near the factory would be more of a factor in ordering.
Is this the "something special for line waiters"?
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Reactions: SmartElectric
Why is that "perfectly fine"? Are you not in California?
Line-waiter, non-owners in California may not think this is "perfectly fine".
I don't.

Based on what had been said before the lines formed, I had the expectation that being near the factory would be more of a factor in ordering.
Is this the "something special for line waiters"?
giphy.gif
So I just got back from SC. One of the reps said that couple of line waiters ahead of me and non owners have configured yesterday!!!! This is in Florida. Amazing news if true.

Also, I confirmed if they're owners or not, he said definitely not owners. Also, he said that production is definitely 1000/week.