Make your robotaxi predictions for the 8/8 reveal

So Elon says that Tesla will reveal a dedicated robotaxi vehicle on 8/8. What do you think we will see? Will it look like this concept art or something else?

I will say that while this concept drawing looks super cool, I am a bit skeptical if it is practical as a robotaxi. It looks to only have 2 seats which would be fine for 1-2 people who need a ride but would not work for more than 2 people. I feel like that would limit the robotaxis value for a lot of people. Also, it would likely need a steering wheel and pedals for regulatory reasons even if Tesla did achieve eyes-off capability.

So I think this is concept art for a hypothetical 2 seater, cheap Tesla, not a robotaxi.

Could the robotaxi look more like this concept art but smaller? It could look a bit more like say the Zoox vehicle or the Cruise Origin, more futuristic box like shape IMO and seat 5-6 people.

Or maybe the robotaxi will look more like the "model 2" concept:

Other questions:
- Will the robotaxis be available to own by individuals as a personal car or will it strictly be owned by Tesla and only used in a ride-hailing network?
- What will cost be?
- Will it have upgraded hardware? Radar? Lidar? additional compute?
- Will Elon reveal any details on how the ride-hailing network will work?

Thoughts? Let the fun speculation begin!

 

[stopcrazypp]

In the US, it is up to the manufacturers to declare the SAE level. We use a self-certification system. Regulators can deny or approve the deployment like we see in CA. But the manufacturer declares what the SAE level is. In fact, that is how Tesla has avoided the CA DMV regulations: they just declare that FSD is L2 and therefore exempt.

Of course it's, not that simple. Just because you declare a system as L2 doesn't mean it matches SAE L2. You still need to evaluate how the system operates. Again, Uber tried declaring their system as L2, but CA DMV didn't buy it, simply because it didn't operate as one.
Uber is stubbornly refusing to apply for a $150 permit for its self-driving cars

For example, Uber's system does not have any nags for hands on wheel nor a driver attention detection system (the fatal accident wouldn't have happened if it did). It does not have any warning messages to the driver to pay attention. It literally operates like any L4 system that doesn't expect or need the driver to respond, while the safety driver is only there in case of bugs. FSD instead has prominent warnings to pay attention, it nags you when you don't, and it can throw red hands on wheel for immediate take over.

 

[Daniel in SD]

As impressive as the Boston Dynamics robots are, they are very much a parallel to Waymo or other fleet robotaxies, in which the price tag is way too high for people in the general public to own widely. For example Spot is $75k. I imagine Atlas's price tag is going to be significantly higher than that.

Tesla's probably trying to have Optimus be more like the Unitree Go1 analog (which launched at $2700). It may be less capable than Spot in some regards, but it can do most of what Spot can do and is affordable enough for widespread use.
This $2,700 robot dog will carry a single bottle of water for you

Not a great comparison. Waymo can actually do something valuable (Uber is about $2 a mile these days). If Atlas could actually do something useful I don’t think the manufacturing cost would be an issue. What about it couldn’t be mass produced? Would it cost more than a car? A humanoid robot that could replace a human job would be worth way more than a car.
Useless = no demand = no volume = expensive.
It is very cool though.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Of course it's, not that simple. Just because you declare a system as L2 doesn't mean it matches SAE L2. You still need to evaluate how the system operates. Again, Uber tried declaring their system as L2, but CA DMV didn't buy it, simply because it didn't operate as one.
Uber is stubbornly refusing to apply for a $150 permit for its self-driving cars

For example, Uber's system does not have any nags for hands on wheel nor a driver attention detection system (the fatal accident wouldn't have happened if it did). It does not have any warning messages to the driver to pay attention. It literally operates like any L4 system that doesn't expect or need the driver to respond, while the safety driver is only there in case of bugs. FSD instead has prominent warnings to pay attention, it nags you when you don't, and it can throw red hands on wheel for immediate take over.

Every AV company has safety driver monitoring now. Doesn’t make them L2.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Not a great comparison. Waymo can actually do something valuable (Uber is about $2 a mile these days). If Atlas could actually do something useful I don’t think the manufacturing cost would be an issue. What about it couldn’t be mass produced? Would it cost more than a car? A humanoid robot that could replace a human job would be worth way more than a car.
Useless = no demand = no volume = expensive.
It is very cool though.

Spot is not useless, it can be used to go into dangerous areas, just like how police have been using specialized robots in the past, except it is even more flexible, given it has legs instead of tracks. But the question is if it is $75k useful when there is similar product that costs just $2700 (actually lower, gen 2 is even less expensive at $1600) that can be used for the same task? Does the extra capabilities justify the higher price tag?

And the price tag of the mass manufactured version makes it more viable to be used in less specialized tasks, like for example for patrolling areas, doing performances for entertainment, and for hobbyists to buy one unit themselves for fun.

I see a similar thing for Atlas (which old estimates are probably like $150k, now it's probably going to be more like $200k) vs the goal for Optimus (under half price of a car or under around $20-30k). Atlas certainly is far more capable in term of acrobatics and the articulation of the body, but is it going to be worth ~10x more? Of course, I'm not going to count any eggs before they hatch (neither Atlas nor Optimus are officially selling yet).

 

[spacecoin]

Spot is not useless, it can be used to go into dangerous areas, just like how police have been using specialized robots in the past, except it is even more flexible, given it has legs instead of tracks. But the question is if it is $75k useful when there is similar product that costs just $2700 that can be used for the same task? Does the extra capabilities justify the higher price tag?

And the price tag of the mass manufactured version makes it more viable to be used in less specialized tasks, like for example for patrolling areas, doing performances for entertainment (you can literally buy 28 of them for the price of one Spot patrol a huge area simultaneously or do a whole synchronized performance), and for hobbyists to buy one unit themselves for fun.

I see a similar thing for Atlas (which old estimates are probably like $150k, now it's probably going to be more like $200k) vs the goal for Optimus (under half price of a car or under around $20-30k). Atlas certainly is far more capable in term of acrobatics and the articulation of the body, but is it going to be worth ~10x more? Of course, I'm not going to count any eggs before they hatch (neither Atlas nor Optimus are officially selling yet).

If you need something for Dull Dirty Dangerous tasks, perhaps it works better if it’s made to last…

BD has working narrow task use cases, optimus is a paper weight wihout software and hyped to the moon doing nothing but teleops. Sigh. only use for Optimus is stock pumping.

Start with the customer in mind usually works better in the long run.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Every AV company has safety driver monitoring now. Doesn’t make them L2.

It's not just drive monitoring, it's monitoring that informs the driver the car is not autonomous (not just monitoring an employee), reinforces with strikes, plus the fact there is no fall back at all (red hands). Basically the DMV would already be forcing Tesla to get permits for all the people using FSD Beta a long time ago if that wasn't the case (and Tesla just declared it as "L2").

 

[Daniel in SD]

Spot is not useless, it can be used to go into dangerous areas, just like how police have been using specialized robots in the past, except it is even more flexible, given it has legs instead of tracks. But the question is if it is $75k useful when there is similar product that costs just $2700 (actually lower, gen 2 is even less expensive at $1600) that can be used for the same task? Does the extra capabilities justify the higher price tag?

And the price tag of the mass manufactured version makes it more viable to be used in less specialized tasks, like for example for patrolling areas, doing performances for entertainment, and for hobbyists to buy one unit themselves for fun.

I see a similar thing for Atlas (which old estimates are probably like $150k, now it's probably going to be more like $200k) vs the goal for Optimus (under half price of a car or under around $20-30k). Atlas certainly is far more capable in term of acrobatics and the articulation of the body, but is it going to be worth ~10x more? Of course, I'm not going to count any eggs before they hatch (neither Atlas nor Optimus are officially selling yet).

Why would Atlas be more expensive to manufacture than Optimus? What components does Atlas have that Optimus doesn't?
And as I said the problem with either of them isn't the cost, it's that they can't do anything valuable. I doubt there is enough of a market for a toy robot to get to a $20k price point.

 

[stopcrazypp]

If you need something for Dull Dirty Dangerous tasks, perhaps it works better if it’s made to last…

There's no indication that Spot is any more durable than the cheaper alternatives (whether battery life, resistance to damage, or how long the components will last). The more advanced part has more to do with the articulation and the sensors on board.

BD has working narrow task use cases, optimus is a paper weight wihout software and hyped to the moon doing nothing but teleops. Sigh. only use for Optimus is stock pumping.

Start with the customer in mind usually works better in the long run.

All humanoid robots are paper weights without software, so not sure what you are trying to say. Literally it can't even move without software. As for teleops, most of the Atlas's demos also appear to be either teleops or recorded actions that were played back. For example, they said they literally spent months to develop that parkour routine which they played back.
Is Boston Dynamics’ parkour performing robot fitter than you?
They haven't really demonstrated useful autonomous functions nor any real world commercial applications yet, as they are still in development stage.

 

[Daniel in SD]

It's not just drive monitoring, it's monitoring that informs the driver the car is not autonomous (not just monitoring an employee), reinforces with strikes, plus the fact there is no fall back at all (red hands). Basically the DMV would already be forcing Tesla to get permits for all the people using FSD Beta a long time ago if that wasn't the case (and Tesla just declared it as "L2").

You literally get fired if you get "strikes" with Waymo, Cruise, or Zoox...
Do you think there is any difference in the safety of testing Waymo software vs. testing FSD software?
I think the DMV is ok with it because there haven't been major issues with safety and Tesla has political sway in California.

 

[spacecoin]

There's no indication that Spot is any more durable than the cheaper alternatives (whether battery life, resistance to damage, or how long the components will last). The more advanced part has more to do with the articulation and the sensors on board.

All humanoid robots are paper weights without software, so not sure what you are trying to say. Literally it can't even move without software. As for teleops, most of the Atlas's most demos also appear to be either teleops or recorded actions that were played back. For example, they said they literally spent months to develop that parkour routine which they played back.
Is Boston Dynamics’ parkour performing robot fitter than you?
They haven't really demonstrated useful autonomous functions nor any real world commercial applications yet, as they are still in development stage.

BD needs tailoring to specific use-cases and on-prem high level programming. They are quite upfront about that. Tesla, on the other hand, implies that they build C3PO. That's obviously 10+ years away - probably longer, but people want to believe and are gullible.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Why would Atlas be more expensive to manufacture than Optimus? What components does Atlas have that Optimus doesn't?

The previous version was hydraulics based vs Optimus being electric motor based. The new Atlas appears to have switched to electric motors also, but appears to have far more complex articulation.

And as I said the problem with either of them isn't the cost, it's that they can't do anything valuable. I doubt there is enough of a market for a toy robot to get to a $20k price point.

Depends on how much volume is required to reach the price point. But I think the challenge of reaching that price with a humanoid robot that can do parkour and flips is going to be much harder than one that can just walk regularly.

 

[stopcrazypp]

BD needs tailoring to specific use-cases and on-prem high level programming. They are quite upfront about that. Tesla, on the other hand, implies that they build C3PO. That's obviously 10+ years away - probably longer, but people want to believe and are gullible.

What Tesla is doing is called marketing and how successful companies are able to sell products in high volume vs companies stuck selling a product in very narrow niche applications.

 

[spacecoin]

What Tesla is doing is called marketing and how successful companies are able to sell products in high volume vs companies stuck selling a product in very narrow niche applications.

Optimus will never be sold at meaningful scale. If Tesla delivers 10k Optimus's to real customers this decade will eat my shoe.

BD has plenty of customers like DHL, BP, Maersk, National Grid etc etc

Listen to this (or anyone else that doesn't pump):

Boston Dynamics says robots could be in homes in 10 to 20 years

The personal robots of the future depicted in science fiction could happen a lot sooner in this lifetime than most people think. At Yahoo Finance's Invest summit, Allie Garfinkle interviews Boston Dynamics CEO Robert Playter about the firm's premier robotics projects, "Spot" and "Stretch." Spot...

uk.news.yahoo.com

 

[aataskin]

Nope incorrect. You can have a SAE L4 system that has no geofences, but it is still SAE L4. One example is one that doesn't work in fog that humans can still drive in. Such a car can have no geofence and drive everywhere in the US, but it'll squarely be SAE L4 given it can't handle fog (which a human can). Of course, most people may colloquially consider that as "L5", but it's not SAE L5.

As was discussed earlier in this forum, all this S4-S5 stuff is a bit beyond the point, it's subjective manufacturer's opinion of what their car can do. What really matters is what the regulators allow. Waymo is allowed to operate in fog. Tesla, as long as they continue to double down on vision only, won't be.

 

[spacecoin]

As was discussed earlier in this forum, all this S4-S5 stuff is a bit beyond the point, it's subjective manufacturer's opinion of what their car can do. What really matters is what the regulators allow. Waymo is allowed to operate in fog. Tesla, as long as they continue to double down on vision only, won't be.

I don't believe you need regulators to tell you if you can drive without a driver in the a certain condition or not. And regulators don't and shouldn't try to be the judge of that.

It's simple: Either you can operate without blocking traffic 99.99% of the time and avoid to cause damage, injure or kill people 99.9999999% of the time OR you lose your permit and go out of business.

It's pretty binary and self-regulating. Look at Cruise.

Then you need to look at ride comfort, pricing, customer experience et.c to build something people want to use too.

 

[aataskin]

Well, they tell which humans are and are not allowed to drive, set speed limits etc. Cruise couldn't test before they convinced the regulators that it's safe enough to do so. And they are not allowed to operate them as robotaxis as a result of what happened.

Which is why this whole SAE system is a bit useless. If Tesla believe they are S5 but the regulators don't let them operate their robotaxis then that's that, and that's all that matters.

For reference: Autonomous Vehicle Testing Permit Holders - California DMV

 

[JulienW]

Conjecture/speculation/HUGE leap in assumption/pulling leprechauns out off my s$$

[assumption]2026 Tesla produces and starts rolling out a L4 robotaxi with fairly wide ODDs and what that means to current Tesla owners:

[conjecture] Even if the robotaxi uses the same hardware and software (FSD V14.x??) we use on our cars we will still stay L2 FSDS. We will just have a competent point to point L2 system but it will be L2 FSDS. This is by far the easiest and most straight forward path for Tesla since they don't have to deal with regulations, liability/insurance issues and general public robotaxi problems/expectations/competition.

So it would (could) be:

• Tesla sells cars that are L2 FSDS and can take you point to point
• Tesla makes, owns and operates a fleet of robotaxies

 

[spacecoin]

Which is why this whole SAE system is a bit useless. If Tesla believe they are S5 but the regulators don't let them operate their robotaxis then that's that, and that's all that matters.

SAE (or at least most experts) specifically say that their taxonomy shouldn't be used as a basis for regulation, so....

SAE J3016 User Guide

Regulating Automated Vehicles with Human Drivers

Summary Regulatory oversight of automated vehicle operation on public roads is being gamed by the vehicle automation industry via two appro...

safeautonomy.blogspot.com

 

[diplomat33]

Tesla sells cars that are L2 FSDS and can take you point to point

I think this is essentially what Tesla is doing and will likely do for awhile. The robotaxi narrative is just hype to create positive marketing. Robotaxis sound more exciting than L2 point to point.

 

[spacecoin]

Robotaxis sound more exciting than L2 point to point.

Because it is? I'm still struggling to see the point of city L2. Doesn't free any time. You're still driving. Highways and traffic jams is another story. There L2 is great.